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Why 3.5M Americans in their prime years aren’t working

marketwatch.com

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Re: Why 3.5M Americans in their prime years aren’t working

#61

Post by anameaname »

badpun wrote: post #20
endorphone wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Comments such as yours -- parroting Donald Trump like talking points -- are remarkable when you consider that the US has the second highest purchase power in the world . The US really has no incentive to allow this to happen Except that it has opened trade for US companies, and the reported numbers are often laughably misleading. Apple, for instance, nets almost all of the profits from an iPhone, yet in the trade bal…

> Apple, for instance, nets almost all of the profits from an iPhone, yet in the trade balance an iPhone magically counts as a $1000 deficit with China. What good does Apple's record profits do for the US? Apple is owned by shareholders across the world, and Americans benefit only insofar as they actually own Apple stock.

America, and the market as a whole benefits because something new is created. Even if you didn't own any Apple stock, you can still buy something that didn't exist until Apple made it. iPhones are an option for consumers to choose when making a purchase that otherwise wouldn't have existed. You can buy something that previously didn't exist.

A smaller scale example is restaurants open late. If you wanted a meal at 4am, a 24-hour restaurant is providing you value because otherwise you would have gone hungry. The value to you is fulfillment, even if you don't own any of the restaurant, or even if the restaurant didn't pay any taxes.

There is real value in companies moving the world as a whole forward. You don't have to own part of them to get the benefits.

Re: Why 3.5M Americans in their prime years aren’t working

#62

Post by dpweb »

endorphone wrote: post #10
galieos_ghost wrote: post #6

Not sure why people are shocked by this, it's just the basic principle of diffusion. As long as america continue to allow free trade our wealth and jobs will flow out of the country as countries seek cheaper labor and sell it right back to America with no restrictions. The standard of living is raising in other countries while lowering in the US. Labor is already getting too expensive in China for cheap goods so comp…

Comments such as yours -- parroting Donald Trump like talking points -- are remarkable when you consider that the US has the second highest purchase power in the world . The US really has no incentive to allow this to happen Except that it has opened trade for US companies, and the reported numbers are often laughably misleading. Apple, for instance, nets almost all of the profits from an iPhone, yet in the trade bal…

The US was built on free trade. This is untrue. Look at US history as it was becoming a superpower before WW2.

From 1871 to 1913, “the average U.S. tariff on dutiable imports never fell below 38 percent [and] gross national product (GNP) grew 4.3 percent annually, twice the pace in free trade Britain and well above the U.S. average in the 20th century,” notes Alfred Eckes Jr., chairman of the U.S. International Trade Commission under President Reagan.

Re: Why 3.5M Americans in their prime years aren’t working

#63

Post by mc32 »

jacquesm wrote: post #57
mc32 wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Japanese engaged in and got away with things like tariffs on Rossignol under the made up excuse that Japanese snow is unique, and thus only Japanese skis were fit for skiing in Japan. Sure, their snow in some places is "wetter", but we now see western skis doing well there and Japanese skis performing well on non Japanese snow. That's the kind of nonsense our leadership should have stood up to.

Indeed, that is nonsense. Rossignol is a French company by the way. But I don't see anything exceptional there, it is similar to the nonsense America engages in vv Canada when it comes to dairy, beef and lumber.

I knew Rossignol was French. It was emblematic of Japanese tactics back then where they engaged in passive aggressive trade manipulation.

Re: Why 3.5M Americans in their prime years aren’t working

#64

Post by UncleEntity »

mc32 wrote: post #15
jacquesm wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> As long as america continue to allow free trade our wealth and jobs will flow out of the country as countries seek cheaper labor and sell it right back to America with no restrictions. What an incredible nonsense. America has been pushing free trade all over the globe to be able to sell American products into other markets. They're not 'allowing' free trade, they have been pushing it for all it's worth and then som…

And on balance we experience trade deficits. It's nice to have a free trade environment when it's reciprocal, but what has happened is that economies like Japan and China can play loose with the definition of free trade than most, and we kind of just put up with it. Few presidents and congress are willing to push the issue hard. Maybe Trump will finally call their bluff and impose sanctions.

> And on balance we experience trade deficits.

For years we've been exporting our inflation to other countries for actual physical goods and they keep buying it under the auspices of "reserve currency".

How many trillions of dollars of US debt does China own these days which they happily exchanged to fuel our consumerism?

Re: Why 3.5M Americans in their prime years aren’t working

#65

Post by asdffdsa »

There has to be a point where mere unemployment isn't stigmitized. Of course, being lazy, unproductive, and at worst destructive has to be condemned/disincentivized, but the association of unemployment to unproductive and from unproductive to some sense of worthlessness/leeching has to be amended in our society. Whether it's UBI, an increase in non-profits, and/or a proliferation of diverse and meaningful government funded projects (arts, public works, infrastructure), there are many ways to put people to meaningful work and utility besides working for a for-profit corporation. I think overcoming the stress induced by higher unemployment produced by automation will be one of the biggest societal challenges America (and beyond) will face in the coming decades. The outdated, 20th century model of work hard (for a company) -> be happy/fulfilled/successful will change. Ultimately, I think automation is for the best: let humans do what they do best (be creative, think abstractly, form and implement new models of the world/society/some concept, learn/iterate/improve/adapt) and let machines do what they do best ([generally speaking] automated tasks that require little improvisation or flexibility).

Re: Why 3.5M Americans in their prime years aren’t working

#66

Post by DougN7 »

madaxe_again wrote: post #51
ekidd wrote: post #8

I'm deeply skeptical of any explanation that claims that we have both a "shortage of labor" and "downward pressure on wages": > If men and women from the ages 25 to 54 took part in the labor market... [t]hat would be more fuel for the U.S. economy and a bigger source of workers for businesses crying out about a shortage of labor... > Trade with China flooded the U.S. with cheap imports, forced domestic firms to shift…

Indeed. One other factor which the study does not touch upon but I do wonder about - burnout - essentially "poor employment conditions". One thing which has substantially changed between '99 and now is employer expectation of availability. In '99, you may have worked 9-6, but when you left the office, you left the office. Sure, some tech folks, some traders, etc. may have had pagers back then - but now, the mobile ph…

Honest question: how do you survive. I don’t feel like I’ve ever had the option to opt out, unless I wanted to move home with Mom. The opportunity might be different than it used to be.

Re: Why 3.5M Americans in their prime years aren’t working

#67

Post by Godel_unicode »

Retric wrote: post #35
jordanb wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One way to look at it is there is a ceiling on American wages imposed by globalization. Above that ceiling you're better off going overseas. But that ceiling is below the market-clearing price of labor in the us.

That does not work. If you can substitute foreign labor then there is no shortage. If you can't substitute foreign labor then it's irrelevant. You can't have a shortage of workers and falling wages. You can have uncompetitive US companies, but they are very profitable so the only thing left is irrational behavior.

I think"can but really don't want to" would explain part of it. What do people do when presented with a workable but unappealing solution? They complain a lot and then grudgingly do it.

Re: Why 3.5M Americans in their prime years aren’t working

#68

Post by orangecat »

madaxe_again wrote: post #51
ekidd wrote: post #8

I'm deeply skeptical of any explanation that claims that we have both a "shortage of labor" and "downward pressure on wages": > If men and women from the ages 25 to 54 took part in the labor market... [t]hat would be more fuel for the U.S. economy and a bigger source of workers for businesses crying out about a shortage of labor... > Trade with China flooded the U.S. with cheap imports, forced domestic firms to shift…

Indeed. One other factor which the study does not touch upon but I do wonder about - burnout - essentially "poor employment conditions". One thing which has substantially changed between '99 and now is employer expectation of availability. In '99, you may have worked 9-6, but when you left the office, you left the office. Sure, some tech folks, some traders, etc. may have had pagers back then - but now, the mobile ph…

the universal expectation is that you are available and ready to work

Maybe among Silicon Valley startups. That has absolutely not been the case at any of my jobs at companies ranging from 5 to tens of thousands of employees.

Re: Why 3.5M Americans in their prime years aren’t working

#69

Post by hycaria »

throwaway65536 wrote: post #53
psyc wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What I've seen in tech is the idea that literally any number of false negatives is worth avoiding a single bad hire. It's fine to claim that trade-off is worth it to you, but it's ludicrous to simultaneously claim there's a shortage of talent. That's just a shortage of risk-free opportunity. Hey, I suffer from a shortage of risk-free opportunities too.

In this age of ghosting people, it seems like everybody is just eyeing everyone else for a reason to stop talking to them or pull the trigger on the block button. We used to be socially-integrated enough to put up with people's foibles and correct them until we are all within a liveable range. Now you cannot confront or give feedback without it blowing up into hyperbole. I have been openly asked about my politics at…

Well considering y combinator is not empty every year, there must be people who have a chance with that level of scrutiny.

Re: Why 3.5M Americans in their prime years aren’t working

#70

Post by whataretensors »

I'm in my prime and relatively competent. The reason I'm broke working on my own startup and not at a company is because every company or successful project I've been a part of has not led to my success as an individual.

FTE at a startup is high risk low reward. You might think with funding a startup is not high risk. It is. You are giving up the huge salary you'd get a a megacorp. And don't even get me started on the common stock issue.

FTE at a megacorp is medium risk medium reward. Not high enough reward until you get to the higher levels - difficult to do.

And also the dull monotone reward signal of direct deposit every two weeks is so incredibly boring.

So now I'm left bootstrapping. The only thing left with high reward. It's hard. My insurance sucks. Trying to work with other companies is obnoxious. Every app store takes 30% and thinks they have employees without the paperwork. One app store I built something for requested(demanded) never ending meaningless changes then released a copy of my idea without telling me. It wasn't even that good of an idea in retrospect.

The game is rigged and not optional. People everywhere hate rigged games.

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