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Dropbox S-1

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Re: Dropbox S-1

#161

Post by smacktoward »

twinkletwinkle wrote: post #97
abuckenheimer wrote: post #80

I'm not surprised to see net neutrality mentioned as a risk factor. Our platform depends on the quality of our users’ access to the internet. Certain features of our platform require significant bandwidth and fidelity to work effectively. Internet access is frequently provided by companies that have significant market power that could take actions that degrade, disrupt or increase the cost of user access to our platf…

They could also call out the flip side though, right? Dropbox could negotiate deals with the ISPs to "box out" smaller competitors. Maybe it costs them upfront but it also solidifies them in the market.

The problem here is that the competitors are companies like Google and Microsoft. If it came down to a bidding war, they could outbid Dropbox just by pulling loose change out of their couch cushions.

Re: Dropbox S-1

#162

Post by lylo »

I’m a fan of Dropbox, it’s an excellent product. It’s the only file sync product I’ve used in anger that I actually trust — I’ve had glitches of one sort or another with iCloud, Google Drive, OneDrive... never with Dropbox. It just works. Apple should have bought them, Jobs got it wrong ;-)

Dropbox Paper is also a delight to use, from a personal perspective. I’ve never used it on a team. I would be interested to hear whether teams of 50+ have successfully used it — it just doesn’t feel ready for the enterprise in the way that Google Drive does/is.

I’ve not read this S-1 (perhaps it clarifies this) but Dropbox seems a little confused about positioning B2C vs B2B. Does it have a packaging problem? Can it have it both ways? It feels like it’s trying to, but when I was a paying Pro user, I couldn’t get away from the upsell on the site for me to move to the business package. Annoying.

Good luck to them though — they have killer design, a killer viral product and a loyal user base.

Re: Dropbox S-1

#163

Post by pvg »

teej wrote: post #141
swrobel wrote: post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Give us the dirt on this one!

There's nothing shocking and I think that bodes very very well for Dropbox. It looks like a solid foundation with great growth. The standouts to me were - * They cut costs on an absolute and relative basis for the last two years. This is fantastic and I hope the trend continues. * I don't understand how the $112 ARPU number foots with their pricing. They are telling a story that "teams" is driving growth but on the s…

What keeps them from making money (asking, not being facetious)?

Re: Dropbox S-1

#164

Post by tomrod »

paulddraper wrote: post #156
Jtsummers wrote: post #111

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you don't control the network, though, it remains a risk. Whoever you partner with can renegotiate the terms later or back out of a contract depending on the exit terms (may cost them, but may be worth it for what they can get from Google). This is the problem of the tenant, the renter. The landlord can change the terms and eat into your profits. At some point it's not worth dealing with them, but it's not always…

But renters don't have market share. If you're Amazon (Dropbox), you have a strong position to negotiate better shipping (network) rates from FedEx and UPS (ISPs).

Depending on how many companies you negotiate with (monopoly vs. monopsony).

Re: Dropbox S-1

#165

Post by tomrod »

raverbashing wrote: post #107
twinkletwinkle wrote: post #97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They could also call out the flip side though, right? Dropbox could negotiate deals with the ISPs to "box out" smaller competitors. Maybe it costs them upfront but it also solidifies them in the market.

> Dropbox could negotiate deals with the ISPs to "box out" smaller competitors. Maybe it costs them upfront but it also solidifies them in the market. Yes, if you're a short sighted MBA that wants to encourage your own extortion

This describes a whole lot of business leaders.

Re: Dropbox S-1

#167

Post by skinnymuch »

twinkletwinkle wrote: post #97
abuckenheimer wrote: post #80

I'm not surprised to see net neutrality mentioned as a risk factor. Our platform depends on the quality of our users’ access to the internet. Certain features of our platform require significant bandwidth and fidelity to work effectively. Internet access is frequently provided by companies that have significant market power that could take actions that degrade, disrupt or increase the cost of user access to our platf…

They could also call out the flip side though, right? Dropbox could negotiate deals with the ISPs to "box out" smaller competitors. Maybe it costs them upfront but it also solidifies them in the market.

Their primary worries for competition though are mostly some of the biggest companies in the world. Not a bright idea for Dropbox at all

Re: Dropbox S-1

#168

Post by teej »

pvg wrote: post #163
teej wrote: post #141

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's nothing shocking and I think that bodes very very well for Dropbox. It looks like a solid foundation with great growth. The standouts to me were - * They cut costs on an absolute and relative basis for the last two years. This is fantastic and I hope the trend continues. * I don't understand how the $112 ARPU number foots with their pricing. They are telling a story that "teams" is driving growth but on the s…

What keeps them from making money (asking, not being facetious)?

If they maintain the current trend of lowering costs, keeping headcount growth in line with revenue, and continuing to achieve economies of scale in sales and marketing then they will show a profit in the next couple of years. They don't promise any of this in the S-1 because they need to be extremely conservative in their statements to the public.

To be honest I'm not super familiar with the comps to know how good or bad their numbers are relative to others. But just from their own reporting they look like they are on track. That's not by accident. It's very likely that constructing this trend has been a major focus for the company in the last few years.

Re: Dropbox S-1

#169

Post by Aunche »

tardo99 wrote: post #6

Congratulations to them. I don't really understand why anyone would use dropbox given the multitude of different offerings out there. I'm curious if anyone who uses them can give me a take on why I should use them. I currently use Google Drive + Google Docs and am very satisfied. I pay for 1 TB of storage for personal work / storage.

Companies like Facebook would prefer Dropbox to store their data over a competitor like Microsoft or Google.

Re: Dropbox S-1

#170

Post by zawerf »

mankash666 wrote: post #62

Commentary on valuation: 1. Box, a public company, is currently valued at $3.17B. It had revenues of ~$480M with a net loss of $150M in 2017 [1] 2. In contrast, Dropbox had revenues of $1.11B with a net loss of $111M in 2017. The higher revenues, and lower losses bode well for Dropbox. Objectively, that would value Dropbox in the $8B-$9B range, $1B-$2B short of it's previous $10B private valuation [1]: https://goo.gl…

Does this mean that investors in their $10B round lost money? Is this common?
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