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Technological Unemployment: Much More Than You Wanted to Know

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191–200 of 233 posts

Re: Technological Unemployment: Much More Than You Wanted to Know

#191

The idea that rising disability is a cause of declining labor force participation is interesting, and fits in with anecdotal data from what family members in medicine have told me. They basically phrase it as: If you're uneducated and poor, why would you work a low paying job with little hope of advancement when you could go on disability and collect a similar amount of money without working?

It's an easy thing to fear. It's another thing to actually demonstrate this is happening in a measurable, widespread fashion.

FWIW most of the people I've met on disability probably deserved to be on there, including people I've met with severe mental illnesses. I'd posit there's more of an empathy gap here than anything.

You need more, less-biased samples!

Re: Technological Unemployment: Much More Than You Wanted to Know

#192
post #123

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This would be a wonderful thesis if it didn't ignore the fact that in the world (and the US in particular) there's a lot of land. So much land that you could fit the entire world's population twice into Texas alone assuming major city densities (assuming 67k /mi^2 and 268000 mi^2 per cursory googling gives some 18B).

As maxerickson said, that land is not free. And the question is not the amount of land, but the amount of valuable land. Land that is near jobs, near markets, near ports, or near decent hospitals or schools. Sure there's loads of terrible land in West Texas, which could possibly provide for a lifestyle of subsistence farming, but the US standard of living is such that it would be wiser to live on welfare in a city. B…

Your suggestion would be wrong because your analysis is faulty. The land is useless without skilled people to operate it. What the skilled people have done is divide the labour which has created machines that farmers can use. The trouble is they can produce enough for themselves and their machine makers by the end of Tuesday. The challenge for the rest of us is to provide something of value to the farmer so they will work the rest of the week and create an exchange surplus.

Rentiers are just the current solution that forces farmers to work til Friday. The problem is that trickle down doesn't work.

Land value tax just makes everybody rentiers and racks off the farmers because they get nothing of exchange value in return for their week of labour.

Re: Technological Unemployment: Much More Than You Wanted to Know

#193

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Given the possibility of remote work, [...] urban centers. Even HN doesn't yet seem to be discussing the impact of coming VR/AR on people's geographic distribution. Perhaps it's still too low profile? Eye tracking; facial expression tracking (researchy); foveated rendering reducing GPU requirements; inexpensive laptops with discrete GPUs; HMDs with monitor-like angular resolution; inexpensive finger tracking (hopef…

Or for that matter self driving cars. You could commute for 5 hours a day, spend 2 hours in the office and go home again. All while being productive. That greatly increases the commutable range. Then you have the prospect of self driving Motor homes, moving with the work becomes that much easier.

How will we be able to do this without fossil fuels?

Re: Technological Unemployment: Much More Than You Wanted to Know

#194
[warning: unfinished thoughts]

On the far end of the "technological unemployment" worry spectrum are those who really believe that AI techniques will yield robots that can do essentially all human work better/faster/cheaper than a human could.

When discussing that possibility, I wonder if our current statistics and vocabulary are really sufficient? After all when you talk about employment, wages, productivity, etc we're thinking about governments and corporations. We cannot forget that governments and corporations are human power structures and one of the biggest forces pushing them forward is the desire of the rich and powerful to become richer and more powerful.

If AI really begins to threaten the supremacy of its human masters, don't you think those same masters will suppress the AI and try to keep the status quo? After all a CEO with a billion dollars in the bank doesn't come to work just to collect his/her paycheck, they come to work to be the boss.

Modern humans have been shown to be strongly, and possibly entirely, motivated by relative wealth and power. The millionaire among billionaires feels poor, the wage earner among the unemployed feels rich.

So maybe, however inefficient, we will continue to employ each other only because it feels good for the employer to retain power over the employee? Maybe we will reject a super-efficient robot-produced future because we don't know how to form a society unless it's founded on a human power structure. Maybe we'll find things for each other to do just so that we can make each other do them.

I agree that if you enumerate all of my current material desires it's possible that a future robot will be able to fulfill them. But I cannot anticipate the societal evolution of desires and how much power over other people plays into that.

Re: Technological Unemployment: Much More Than You Wanted to Know

#195
post #180
post #169

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"The Industrial Revolution put farmers out of work, but not because farming became illegal" Not completely true, see the Inclosure Acts https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inclosure_Acts It's not unique to England either, it's just well documented there. Generally speaking the process of removing subsistence hunters, herders and farmers off of land they have historically lived off takes place with violence - not because th…

>>The Industrial Revolution put farmers out of work, but not because farming became illegal >Not completely true, see the Inclosure Acts I don't think that's disputing the parent's point. Seizing land isn't "banning farming" any more than repoing my car is "banning driving". To respond to the general point: if yeoman farming were actually more productive per unit input, then even enclosure wouldn't be enough to stamp…

"if yeoman farming were actually more productive per unit input, then even enclosure wouldn't be enough to stamp it out."

I'm not making the claim that yeoman farming is more productive. I do claim however that such laws are sufficient to crush indigenous agriculture because enclosure is a violent and effective process for doing so.

"Seizing land isn't "banning farming""

Enclosure laws aren't a ban (no society has ever banned farming to my knowledge), but they effectively put some farmers out of work if they engage in a particular type of subsistence agriculture. That is farmers that utilize a community owned shared hunting ground/pasture/cropland on land without a title recognized by the state.

"Displaced farmers would still have been able to buy back the original land and continue"

Your typical indigenous person or tribe who is having their land enclosed or confiscated doesn't have the capital to buy it back, assuming they are even have the knowledge, language and legal framework on how to go about with that process. They are likely not even interested in agriculture for the purpose of making money, and if they were, do you really imagine people like the Orang Rimba are going to buy back their land? http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-41981430 It's going to be palm oil plantations no matter how effectively they were using the land - assuming anyone is even measuring.

Re: Technological Unemployment: Much More Than You Wanted to Know

#196
post #194

[warning: unfinished thoughts] On the far end of the "technological unemployment" worry spectrum are those who really believe that AI techniques will yield robots that can do essentially all human work better/faster/cheaper than a human could. When discussing that possibility, I wonder if our current statistics and vocabulary are really sufficient? After all when you talk about employment, wages, productivity, etc we…

I don't think many managers and executives enjoy their jobs because of the power they have in the organization. I think they enjoy their jobs by being proficient at their work and getting rewarded for it, like the rest of us.

Re: Technological Unemployment: Much More Than You Wanted to Know

#197

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I actually said roughly, I didn't go back and edit that in or anything. If you want to do brass tacks or whatever, buy it and scrape out a living to prove that cheap scrub desert makes a point about land being available.

What if automation and robotics made homesteading much easier, and more likely to succeed on land that was previously considered useless? Obviously water and other resources are going to be an issue, but as a labour multiplier, AI and robotics have huge potential.

West of the 100th Meridian, water gets scarce. Land out here has value pretty much in proportion to how much water it has available, because you can't grow anything on it without water. And you can't fix lack of water by availability of robots.

Re: Technological Unemployment: Much More Than You Wanted to Know

#198

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I actually said roughly, I didn't go back and edit that in or anything. If you want to do brass tacks or whatever, buy it and scrape out a living to prove that cheap scrub desert makes a point about land being available.

What if automation and robotics made homesteading much easier, and more likely to succeed on land that was previously considered useless? Obviously water and other resources are going to be an issue, but as a labour multiplier, AI and robotics have huge potential.

> What if automation and robotics made homesteading much easier, and more likely to succeed on land that was previously considered useless?

Then that land (if not already privately owned and actually available for homesteading) will be homesteaded, privatized, enter the land market, and not be rent-free land that is available. Just like the land that was attractive for homesteading in the past has been. Sure, its a one-time land-rush just like the initial homestead act, but after that the same forces of centralization of property that always work in a capitalist economy will work on it.

Re: Technological Unemployment: Much More Than You Wanted to Know

#199

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If I may ask, what was your internal doomsday countdown before reading the article?

About 10-15 years before progress makes some members of my family unemployed.

Depending on how representative your family is of the overall population, that could mean that the doomsday scenario for most people is already here.

Re: Technological Unemployment: Much More Than You Wanted to Know

#200

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not the OP, but I've been thinking about this a lot recently. The problem is that telecommuting is currently very limited by technology. You can currently only transport your voice and a single video view, while collaborating over a single view from a monitor. You end up missing on very many of the modalities available in the real world. But my vision of what work and study could be like with good VR is The Magic Sch…

so: constricted communication bandwidth?

That's one way to describe it, a better way might be that's its not bandwidth that limits remote working communication, but just a lack of features.

To loop this back to the topic at hand, the idea is that you need people in the same space to work effectively. That idea forces collections of people (cities) and drives up the value of the land (a fixed commodity). Having technology that removes the need to have the workforce physically opens up vast amounts of relatively cheap land to live on.

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