Schwarzenegger: Public Pensions and Our Fiscal Future • Hacker News Board

Re: Schwarzenegger: Public Pensions and Our Fiscal Future

#171

Post by nkassis » Sat, Aug 28, 2010, 2:49 PM UTC

furyg3 wrote: post #116

aresant wrote: post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Here's the real data which is still striking, eg private is 2x the rate of public: Job losses June 2008 to June 2010 State government Statewide: -8,800 / -3.3% County government Statewide: -18,500 / -5.1% City government Statewide: -14,100 / -4.9% Private sector Statewide: -1,200,000 / -9.3% Via http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/2010/aug/23/government-jo...

Indeed it's still a big difference, but it's not "off the charts!" as the graph would have you believe. Plus, it's fairly reasonable that there would be such a difference between private / public job loss rates. Employment rates in the operations department of most companies I've worked for are relatively flat during both boom and bust times, when the rates of the rest of the organisation fluctuate wildly. In boom ti…

I worked for a University in florida and the largest department was by far the Facilities one. Maintaining buildings, keeping them clean etc.. is very expensive. You can't cut those jobs and for each new building, you to add more of these people.

The University tried to freeze hiring but a few new buildings were entering operation, they had to keep getting more janitors/grounds keepers etc.

Re: Schwarzenegger: Public Pensions and Our Fiscal Future

#172

Post by jshen » Sat, Aug 28, 2010, 3:49 PM UTC

houseabsolute wrote: post #160

jbooth wrote: post #159

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If they have such a great deal, why aren't you a teacher?

Different people have different tolerance for risk, different preferences for activity, different sets of cultivated skills etc. Mine line up better with programming than teaching, and I can make more doing it to boot. Earlier, you were claiming that teachers are getting a raw deal because you are paid so much better as a programmer. To put the previous paragraph in completely unambiguous terms, let me ask you this:…

Your confusing different commenters.

Re: Schwarzenegger: Public Pensions and Our Fiscal Future

#173

Post by jbooth » Sat, Aug 28, 2010, 4:06 PM UTC

houseabsolute wrote: post #156

whyenot wrote: post #154

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Policemen get paid a lot of money where I live. They work in a city where it's difficult to buy a home for less than a million dollars. Contrary to your assertion, further highly specialized education beyond a bachelor's degree is required to be a police officer (hint: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/San_Francisco_Police_Department... ). Also contrary to your assertion, it appears starting pay is no higher in Oakland th…

> They work in a city where it's difficult to buy a home for less than a million dollars. Yet Starbucks baristas still get paid the same as anywhere else (modulo some minor cost of living adjustments) and don't get to retire at 50 with 90% of their last year's income (which should be a good deal more than the starting salary). > further highly specialized education beyond a bachelor's degree You should say "separate…

Why don't you do it then, if it's such a great deal?

Re: Schwarzenegger: Public Pensions and Our Fiscal Future

#174

Post by yummyfajitas » Sat, Aug 28, 2010, 5:04 PM UTC

jshen wrote: post #170

houseabsolute wrote: post #155

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If they are getting a posh deal I sure as hell don't see it. We were talking about policemen and road workers, but now that you mention teachers, we can talk about them too. Among other things, it's almost impossible for them to get fired and their raises don't seem to be connected to performance. They also get to take three months off during the summer, bringing their annualized salary up to about 70k. If you thro…

most programmers pay isn't related to their performance, hell most ceos pay isn't related to their performance, so that's a red herring. I'd love to know what factors actually set programmer or ceo pay. Saying, "market factors" is just hand waving. Now on to the specifics. According to this article they probably aren't going to get the pension they were promised since it's insolvent. They don't get 3 months off, exag…

In NYC, teachers get july, august, 1 week of september, the week after christmas and a week of spring break. That's 2 months 3 weeks, though obviously this varies from place to place.

I'm not sure why you think teachers take a loss of 60k right now - most teachers are low human capital individuals and would not be earning $100k/year right out of college.

And yes, most programmers pay is related to their performance. Rock stars quickly get paid more, either at their current job or they quit and move on. If they suck, they get fired (a concept teachers may find somewhat foreign). That's what "market factors" means. In contrast, teacher pay is set by politics and longevity.

Also, most teachers get early retirement (at 55, vs 65 for the programmer) on a defined benefit pension. Maybe it's insolvent, but most likely the rest of us will be forced to pay. In contrast, if my 401k tanks, I'm fucked.

Re: Schwarzenegger: Public Pensions and Our Fiscal Future

#175

Post by houseabsolute » Sat, Aug 28, 2010, 5:09 PM UTC

jbooth wrote: post #173

houseabsolute wrote: post #156

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> They work in a city where it's difficult to buy a home for less than a million dollars. Yet Starbucks baristas still get paid the same as anywhere else (modulo some minor cost of living adjustments) and don't get to retire at 50 with 90% of their last year's income (which should be a good deal more than the starting salary). > further highly specialized education beyond a bachelor's degree You should say "separate…

Why don't you do it then, if it's such a great deal?

Please read the other thread. I already dispensed with this idiocy regarding teachers and I'm not going to address it again.

Re: Schwarzenegger: Public Pensions and Our Fiscal Future

#176

Post by WildUtah » Sat, Aug 28, 2010, 5:13 PM UTC

houseabsolute wrote: post #144

aswanson wrote: post #109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One solution may be to have taxpayers directly vote on benefits for public servants...make the unions take on the people who will be paying for it rather than temporary placeholders with no real skin in the game.

Or to require that the value of the benefits start being paid down in a sustainable way immediately. Only if those who are benefitting from the delayed benefits are required to fund them will this problem really be solved. In the private lending market we call this a downpayment.

The Federal Employee Retirement Income Security Act (ERISA) requires that private employers that offer pensions do pay as they go.

Defined contribution 403(b) and 401(k) programs have to have their deposits made soon after each year end. Defined benefit plans are more complicated, but there are big federal fines for companies that fail to deposit the increase in expected value of future payments each year. There are extensive (but imperfect) actuarial rules in the US Code to make the actual minimum contribution match the needs of the pension fund. Big funds need to buy insurance, too, in case things go wrong.

States and municipalities are immune from the federal standards. That's why they're ignoring the consequences and just promising to pay pensions without depositing enough money according to their own actuarial computations. A private company would have had to cut back on promises or pay the full current cost of future benefits.

Heck, even the Federal Government is keeping up with employee pension planning. The trouble is all in states and municipalities.

The states know they are doing this; actuarial science is not a mystery. But governors and legislators figure that public employee unions must be satisfied. And the problem won't explode until they're out of office and then it's someone else's problem.

And we voters who don't hold them responsible are ultimately at fault. Public employee unions couldn't hold politicians captive if we were willing to vote out pols who kowtow to irresponsible demands.

Re: Schwarzenegger: Public Pensions and Our Fiscal Future

#177

Post by Anechoic » Sat, Aug 28, 2010, 5:21 PM UTC

dpifke wrote: post #72

CWuestefeld wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm sympathetic to your point, but you can't really make this comparison, because it's apples-to-oranges. The set of jobs in each set is quite different. For example, there are few farmers in the government employ. However, we can still reach interesting conclusions from the data. For example, I would expect that regardless of the salary of the job, benefits such as healthcare insurance would be fairly constant for e…

Even when broken down by industry group and job type (apples-to-apples), public-sector employees make significantly more than their private-sector counterparts, see this Department of Labor press release: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/ecec.pdf (On page 3 is a comparison of % spent on different benefits for public- vs. private-sector; not sure what conclusions can be drawn from it.)

Page 4: "Compensation cost levels in State and local government should not be directly compared with levels in private industry. Differences between these sectors stem from factors such as variation in work activities and occupational structures. Manufacturing and sales, for example, make up a large part of private industry work activities but are rare in State and local government. Professional and administrative support occupations (including teachers) account for two-thirds of the State and local government workforce, compared with one-half of private industry."

Re: Schwarzenegger: Public Pensions and Our Fiscal Future

#178

Post by jshen » Sat, Aug 28, 2010, 5:23 PM UTC

yummyfajitas wrote: post #174

jshen wrote: post #170

Earlier quoted context omitted.

most programmers pay isn't related to their performance, hell most ceos pay isn't related to their performance, so that's a red herring. I'd love to know what factors actually set programmer or ceo pay. Saying, "market factors" is just hand waving. Now on to the specifics. According to this article they probably aren't going to get the pension they were promised since it's insolvent. They don't get 3 months off, exag…

In NYC, teachers get july, august, 1 week of september, the week after christmas and a week of spring break. That's 2 months 3 weeks, though obviously this varies from place to place. I'm not sure why you think teachers take a loss of 60k right now - most teachers are low human capital individuals and would not be earning $100k/year right out of college. And yes, most programmers pay is related to their performance.…

Ok, I wasn't counting holidays for my time off, only vacation days, so the difference is still the same.

I didn't earn 100k a year right out of college, your trying to change the facts of the comparison.

"And yes, most programmers pay is related to their performance."

It really isn't, it's based primarily on years of experience, who you know, and how outspokenly confident you are (regardless of whether the confidence is deserved). Every company I've ever been at has had programmers there were twice as productive as other programmers. They never got paid twice as much, and there was no correlation at all really, even it it isn't linear.

Every programmer I know with 5-10 years experience gets a salary within a narrow range.

"If they suck, they get fired (a concept teachers may find somewhat foreign)."

No they don't. I get the distinct impression that you have an ideal in your head that isn't remotely close to the reality. If you are at a company of any size it's very hard to fire someone.

Just curious, how old are you?

Re: Schwarzenegger: Public Pensions and Our Fiscal Future

#179

Post by WildUtah » Sat, Aug 28, 2010, 5:31 PM UTC

houseabsolute wrote: post #145

jbooth wrote: post #135

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Liberals don't claim that the government should renege on a contract that was lawfully entered into with a military contractor. In fact, nobody claims that, ever. Yet whenever local budgets are crunched, we always hear about how greedy the municipal workers are. You know what policemen and highway workers get paid? I've negotiated union deals from the government side. I negotiated fairly, in good faith, and nobody at…

> You know what policemen and highway workers get paid? Policemen get paid a lot of money where I live. ( http://sf-police.org/index.aspx?page=1655 ). Personally I think an entry-level pay of $80k for someone with only a high-school diploma is pretty good. There are other areas in the Bay where pay is even higher, like Oakland. I can't speak to highway workers.

> You know what policemen and highway workers get paid?

$400,000.

Cops and some prison guards and firemen in most of New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts, California, and other poorly managed jurisdictions with public unions average $300,000 to $500,000 in total compensation. To be fair, the job does require a bachelor's degree and not just a high school diploma. And you usually need a good friend who can pull strings to get you hired, obviously.

The mid career base salaries are about $150,000 and the pension plan usually are full final-year pay and benefits retirement at 45 or 50. That pension plan costs more in present value than the salary according to sane actuarial assumptions. Furthermore, there are effectively eight weeks of paid vacation, a short work week, generous overtime pay, and pensions are usually calculated based on final year pay including overtime and vacation cash-out so they can be well over official salary.

State highway workers get paid considerably more than the market rate paid by contractors but not as much as cops.

Re: Schwarzenegger: Public Pensions and Our Fiscal Future

#180

Post by jshen » Sat, Aug 28, 2010, 5:53 PM UTC

HaloZero wrote: post #163

jshen wrote: post #151

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My wife happens to be a teacher in L.A. (not lausd). Her entry level salary was barely 40k and she is now in the 50k range after 6 years. I'm a programmer with less education, less years of experience, and I make more than double what she makes. If they are getting a posh deal I sure as hell don't see it. But, neither of our single data points says anything about the situation. I'm assuming most people on here took s…

Programming is a very difficult field to enter and it is very lucrative. You can't really compare the programming job vs any regular government job. Consider that most employees in private areas are probably more desk jobs (not programming) they get equivalent salaries minus all the lush retirement.

I wouldn't call teaching a regular government desk job. In fact, it's rather absurd tobsuggest such a thing.