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Schwarzenegger: Public Pensions and Our Fiscal Future

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Re: Schwarzenegger: Public Pensions and Our Fiscal Future

#91
post #20

I have a feeling these graphs do more to explain the problems that Berkeley professor wrote about ( http://blogs.berkeley.edu/2010/08/24/a-letter-to-my-students... ) than the explanations he proposed.

I have a feeling those graphs are more than a little fishy - the bottom one especially. Retirement costs went up ~5X from 2000 to 2010? And they'll go up by the same from 2010 to 2020? I call BS.

Re: Schwarzenegger: Public Pensions and Our Fiscal Future

#92

After this one gets to +250 can we have a politics moratorium for a while?

What, you don't thing that a State (especially California, the startup capital of the world) in a serious budget crisis has anything to do with entrepreneurs that may be attempting to start their own businesses in such a climate?

Although I've unfortunately added to it, I don't think on the whole HN discussions on the subject have been particularly enlightening, partly because, unlike with technical topics, HN posters don't generally have expertise or particularly unique insights into this area. We just have a mix of libertarian-leaning and social-democratic-leaning people arguing with each other (with a moderate majority for the libertarians).

Re: Schwarzenegger: Public Pensions and Our Fiscal Future

#93

After this one gets to +250 can we have a politics moratorium for a while?

This is a legitimate concern, but the subject of this article concerns issues that directly affect the interests of the HN community. It's clear to many of us that political grandstanding, personal drama, and he-said-she-said do not belong on HN.

At the same time, many current and aspiring startup founders have embraced the cultural shift to learning about traditionally non-technical areas such as sales and marketing. And rightfully so; this is after the previous shift (or "great opening up") to learning about design and a good user experience.

We've done all this because there's no escaping the cold, hard reality that the success of our companies depends on getting the word out and selling people on our ideas. Good code is not enough.

The skyrocketing cost of public pensions in California affects the solvency of the state government. When the state government is desperate and must make ends meet, tax hikes are the first and most obvious options, and are always taken into consideration. When you're thinking about starting a company and setting up shop in Silicon Valley, the tax burden is a huge factor to take into account.

As things stand today, the benefits of the personal network, concentration of talent, and the established tech ecosystem in Silicon Valley are still more than enough to outweigh the comparatively high tax burden for those who wish to start and operate a successful company. "Political" articles like this are of interest to us because they tell us about important future changes in the formula we use to calculate where we want to set up shop.

Re: Schwarzenegger: Public Pensions and Our Fiscal Future

#94
post #48

No mention of Prop 13 eh? PG&E etc. are able to pay insanely low property taxes, often creating shell companies so the property can be passed between owners, while regular working schmoes pay sky high property taxes. And what about Arnold's refusal to tax offshore drilling the same way red states like Alaska do? Yes there need to be cuts in spending but refusing to raise a single tax is simply absurd. Both things nee…

The 2/3 requirement for raising taxes also comes from Prop. 13. Best proposition ever!

It was overkill, and selfish. I was in 5th grade when Prop 13 went through, and by 6th grade school programs had to be cut, school supplies were all but non-existent, and teachers were being fired. For the sake of what -- big corporations? Baby boomer tax rates? Tax cut we can afford, sure.

Re: Schwarzenegger: Public Pensions and Our Fiscal Future

#95
post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is a GOP strategy called "starve the beast", and Paul Krugman has been writing about it for years: http://www.google.com/search?q=starve+the+beast+krugman

Ah yes, I never understood why on earth anyone would elect someone to public office that hates government so much they would try to destroy it... It would be like hiring a developer that hates code so much he would delete it from your repository to reduce kloc counts.

Your analogy is actually a pretty charitable reading. HN often discusses how the best coders are sometimes the ones who produce less code. Some principled fiscal conservatives don’t hate government, they have waste, and electing them to reduce the institution they’re part of is not absurd.

For what it’s worth, I think starve-the-beast is empirically a bad strategy. But it’s not a logical fallacy, as people sometimes seem to think.

Re: Schwarzenegger: Public Pensions and Our Fiscal Future

#96

About 25 years ago in California, Orange Country went bankrupt and public employees had to do "give backs" of (if I remember correctly) about 1/2 of their retirement funds and other concessions. I think that this will be the model for the future, but a state levels. It may not seem fair to change the rules on public employees, but effectively the rules have changed for private employees because the economy at federal…

> It may not seem fair to change the rules on public employees, but effectively the rules have changed for private employees It's possible this has happened some places, but not at any major companies I know about. Companies that have phased out defined-benefit pensions have generally not done so retroactively, but only closed them to new hires. Phasing them out retroactively would be a breach of contract, since the…

Actually, IBM did retroactively change the pension eligibility criteria as well as the payoff during its restructuring under Lou Gerstner(This is the late 90s). There is still a pending lawsuit if I remember correctly. It makes no sense to me as to why it is OK to underfund pension accounts. One major reason IBM was able to make the change is because it had no unions(FWIW I am no fan of unions as they encourage sloth in organisations).

Re: Schwarzenegger: Public Pensions and Our Fiscal Future

#97
post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My downvote signals that if you want people to take interest in claims like that, you need to substantiate them. It also expresses disapproval at the insertion of a tangentially-related, flamebait ad hominem into a thread discussing a particular set of economic statistics. EDIT: I retract my statement that it's an ad hominem . I think the parent has a reasonable point.

This is disorienting. What is your recount of what happened in the California Energy Crisis involving Enron? Can you tell me which of those points are questionable, please?

I actually changed my mind, after thinking about your points and refreshing myself on the relevant history. I agree that your portrait of the situation is worth reflecting on, and not that much of an ad hominem. I wish you would have elaborated on your statements instead of just dropping them off, though.

Re: Schwarzenegger: Public Pensions and Our Fiscal Future

#98
post #20

I have a feeling these graphs do more to explain the problems that Berkeley professor wrote about ( http://blogs.berkeley.edu/2010/08/24/a-letter-to-my-students... ) than the explanations he proposed.

I was thinking exactly the same thing. In addition when you know an employee is going to cost you a lot of money in pension, the incentive to reduce the work force as much as possible is high. You end up in a situation where your budget is used to pay for the retired employees and you have nothing left for active employees. One of the reasons you are there is that it's pretty tempting for someone in command to offer…

So, in other words, the bottom line in the budget should be delta (assets - liabilities). This is how individuals are encouraged to do their own budgeting; how would it hurt to require the same of the state?

Re: Schwarzenegger: Public Pensions and Our Fiscal Future

#99
post #91
post #20

I have a feeling these graphs do more to explain the problems that Berkeley professor wrote about ( http://blogs.berkeley.edu/2010/08/24/a-letter-to-my-students... ) than the explanations he proposed.

I have a feeling those graphs are more than a little fishy - the bottom one especially. Retirement costs went up ~5X from 2000 to 2010? And they'll go up by the same from 2010 to 2020? I call BS.

Its not BS at all. Many states have problems with this. And if you even get close to state budgets at all which very rarely do citizens do, you will see this problem in more than just a few states and cities and even counties...

Re: Schwarzenegger: Public Pensions and Our Fiscal Future

#100

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This same thing is also an extreme Liberal strategy. Sorry, I can't remember the name to look it up. The theory is that you can so overload the government that it simply can't stand up anymore (like the USSR I suppose). It crumbles, and that gives you the opportunity to erect a new one in its place, doing away with all those things that stand in your way, like Constitutional restrictions on the government. UPDATE: th…

Except there's no mainstream, tea-party-a-like leftists loudly advocating that strategy in the US.

I think by Liberal he meant to say Libertarian
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