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Schwarzenegger: Public Pensions and Our Fiscal Future

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21–30 of 191 posts

Re: Schwarzenegger: Public Pensions and Our Fiscal Future

#21
Seems like he makes a convincing argument to me. Basically it boils down to:

1. California can't afford to pay promised pensions. 2. Public pensions are far more generous than similar private sector retirement options.

I'd like to know:

Are the facts as presented correct? Any errors or misleading statements? If not, then the governor's argument is very strong.

A Republican attacking size of government is par for the course. He assails unions, also par for the course for a Republican. Is he also ignoring special pro-business,anti-tax interest groups that influence his side of the aisle (also par for the course). Having said that, seems to me that assuming his facts are straight that changes are needed.

Personal bias: Except for first responders, my own perception of government employees is one of rude, under-skilled and self-entitled people who unlike private sector employees don't have to worry about: customer satisfaction, providing value, increasing sales or the company's profitability. In fact, just as an example anecdote, when I was in the military, my experience was that one had to spend as much of the allotted budget or else next year's budget would be smaller. So at the end of the year we ordered a bunch of useless shit we didn't need, created fake orders etc just so we could spend enough to match our budget. The focus wasn't on reducing spending. Seems like government employees fill up some allotted headcount by breathing air, and maybe get some work done sometimes.

I realize that my personal bias is probably wrong, which is why it's called a 'bias.'

Re: Schwarzenegger: Public Pensions and Our Fiscal Future

#22
post #19

Can someone confirm that indeed 80 cents of every tax dollar goes to pensions?

From the article: roughly 80 cents of every government dollar in California goes to employee compensation and benefits So that's salaries as well as pensions (and salaries will be making up the lions share of the 80%). To quote Felix Dennis "Overhead walks on two legs".

and healthcare benefits, etc

Re: Schwarzenegger: Public Pensions and Our Fiscal Future

#23

About 25 years ago in California, Orange Country went bankrupt and public employees had to do "give backs" of (if I remember correctly) about 1/2 of their retirement funds and other concessions. I think that this will be the model for the future, but a state levels. It may not seem fair to change the rules on public employees, but effectively the rules have changed for private employees because the economy at federal…

That was before federal workers earned twice as much as their private counterparts.

"Federal civil servants earned average pay and benefits of $123,049 in 2009 while private workers made $61,051 in total compensation, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The data are the latest available."

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/federal-workers-earning-doubl...

Re: Schwarzenegger: Public Pensions and Our Fiscal Future

#24
post #6

As a foreigner, this is like bizarre fiction. * Arnold Schwarzenegger, a former bodybuilder champion now politician * Governor of nearly bankrupt California * A state scammed out of 40 to 50bn by Enron and pals * AS career was supported by Enron (from Forbes) * Writing an opinion column on Fox owned WSJ against state pensions My sympathies to all californians. The world owes you so much.

Your down votes signal you read those facts and it upsets your beliefs. I didn't write this for people who agree with my point of view. I wrote this for you. Thank you.

Re: Schwarzenegger: Public Pensions and Our Fiscal Future

#26
post #2

Who's lending California this money now? It seems quiet a risky deal.

It's not that risky. The most likely outcome is simply that the fiscally responsible states will be forced to bail California out.

Depends on who holds the bonds. If the majority of those people are well connected a bailout is likely. It won't come without concessions though. Bondholders will be forced to take a haircut on their investment. Seems crazy to me.

Re: Schwarzenegger: Public Pensions and Our Fiscal Future

#27

About 25 years ago in California, Orange Country went bankrupt and public employees had to do "give backs" of (if I remember correctly) about 1/2 of their retirement funds and other concessions. I think that this will be the model for the future, but a state levels. It may not seem fair to change the rules on public employees, but effectively the rules have changed for private employees because the economy at federal…

It's worth observing that:

1) Orange County went bankrupt by cooking the books. After the scandal broke, their treasurer went to jail.

2) The Republican administration turned a blind eye to the Democratic treasurer's malfeasance because it was allowing them to keep taxes very low, which was making their government very popular.

3) The government refused to raise even a temporary tax to avoid bankruptcy, as that position was highly unpopular among the wealthy residents of the county. At various points the county insisted that it should receive bailouts from the California state and federal government, which drew anger from across the nation as Orange County is among the wealthiest places in the nation.

4) In bankruptcy, Orange County cut $200 million from its budget by clawing back commitments to its low level employees who had no part in the high level corruption, as well as through layoffs and reduced services. The OC bankruptcy, from the perspective of the average person, is like a minified version of the bank bailouts. It was a "heads I win, tails you lose" bargain between the wealthy people of OC and the average people who were hurt most by the layoffs and reduced services.

Re: Schwarzenegger: Public Pensions and Our Fiscal Future

#28

About 25 years ago in California, Orange Country went bankrupt and public employees had to do "give backs" of (if I remember correctly) about 1/2 of their retirement funds and other concessions. I think that this will be the model for the future, but a state levels. It may not seem fair to change the rules on public employees, but effectively the rules have changed for private employees because the economy at federal…

That was before federal workers earned twice as much as their private counterparts. "Federal civil servants earned average pay and benefits of $123,049 in 2009 while private workers made $61,051 in total compensation, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The data are the latest available." http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/federal-workers-earning-doubl...

I'm sympathetic to your point, but you can't really make this comparison, because it's apples-to-oranges. The set of jobs in each set is quite different. For example, there are few farmers in the government employ.

However, we can still reach interesting conclusions from the data. For example, I would expect that regardless of the salary of the job, benefits such as healthcare insurance would be fairly constant for employees anywhere, and that in the private sector, healthcare is probably the single largest chunk of benefits. With this observation, we'd have to conclude that whatever salary you're making, the government is throwing in a pretty significant amount of extra value into their employee's benefits, whatever that employee's job might be.

Re: Schwarzenegger: Public Pensions and Our Fiscal Future

#29
He got that exactly right, unfortunately he didn't go far enough -- debt financed projects are also a huge problem. Look at the big dig & the mbta.

People need to learn that you pay as you go, that's why 401ks are great the total cost of an employee is understood completely.

Taking debt in someone else's name, which is what essentially all government debt is, is fundamentally immoral and shouldn't be allowed. It causes people to be reckless since they're not the ones paying for it.

Re: Schwarzenegger: Public Pensions and Our Fiscal Future

#30
post #18
post #5

i like how the 2nd graph is totally wrong: those numbers aren't in billions, but in millions. i guess no one understands how to read graphs anymore

Not to mention the first graph would be far more useful if it displayed relative job losses rather than absolute.

Forgive my ignorance -- what does "relative job losses" mean, and how does it differ from "absolute job losses"?
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