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Self driving cars and beyond

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Re: Self driving cars and beyond

#81

Post by brudgers »

jsloss wrote: post #42
brudgers wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Every and each of the proposed benefits of vast public policy initiatives supported by a generous public purse in support of autonomous cars could be as easily derived from a similar public policy initiative to create public transit infrastructure.

I’m not convinced that’s true. The friction involved with public transit (limitations schedules, routes, and sharing of vehicles) are enough to limit much of the usage outlined in the above comment.

Vehicle fleets don't solve the spatial and temporal realities that are reflected in the schedules and routes of public transit. A fleet of vehicles has to be staged to meet fluctuating demands.

Mathematically, on demand vehicles are probably harder to schedule because of random variation in queuing. Consider a population of workers each of which sometimes works from home. Some days an unusually high, but not statistically unlikely, number of riders all stay home: the idling vehicles need to sit somewhere. Other days, a statistically likely but atypical number of riders don't work from home and there are not enough vehicles to go around.

Public transit addresses fluctuation with a low nominal cost of providing surplus capacity to normal operation in the form of standing room. Public transit can be sized more closely to peak demand. On the other hand, from 20:00 to 06:00 the peak demand capacity of an autonomous car fleet needs to be parked somewhere. Between 06:00 and 08:00 and again between 18:00 and 20:00 the fleet needs to be moved to storage.

Re: Self driving cars and beyond

#82

Post by andrewmunsell »

emanreus wrote: post #73
letscavort22 wrote: post #2

It’s great to explore this topic. You can have a lot of fun in picking a random industry and imagining the effect that self driving will have. Health - beyond the obvious effects on the emergency room, what else? Ambulances willl quite clearly be affected. Why would someone wait minutes for one to arrive when they can just hop in an autocar to go the hospital? Or would the entire emergency room itself be on wheels? (…

> Why would someone wait minutes for one to arrive when they can just hop in an autocar to go the hospital? If you can just hop in and go to the hospital by yourself you don't need an ambulance.

You can have a non-life threatening injury that prevents you from operating a car yourself, and without access to something like Uber or having another person to drive you, could necessitate calling an ambulance.

A study was done (I haven't read the whole thing) that seemed to indicate cities with UberX had a reduction in ambulance use: http://www2.ku.edu/~kuwpaper/2017Papers/201708.pdf

(Though the wording of the GP was slightly ambiguous and seemed to compare a time-sensitive emergency to being able to take some other vehicle to the hospital)

Re: Self driving cars and beyond

#83

Post by Animats »

KKKKkkkk1 wrote: post #4

A couple of years ago there was a new article on the front page pretty much every day about the great new thing that will change our lives--3D printing. I'm worried that whatever happened to 3D printing is about to happen to self driving. What did happen to 3D printing?

It went back to being an industrial tool, which is what it was before the "replicator" fad. There are now quite good 3D printers that can print strong parts. They're industrial machines found in factories. 3D printing as a job shop service is doing moderately well. The home 3D printer remains a niche product.

Could be worse. Could be 3D TV.

Re: Self driving cars and beyond

#84

Post by emodendroket »

ilovecars2 wrote: post #6

This is kind of a meta comment, but I’ve been lurking on HN for a while on car posts in particular. I have the impression that HN in general doesn’t like cars all that much, and in fact we would be much better of without them. I can’t argue with the facts: congestion and pollution in large cities, such as London, have never been higher where almost all on-road public transport is still run on diesel. However, I think…

Well, beyond that, I have to wonder if self-driving cars are really the solution we're looking for, rather than more mass transit.

Re: Self driving cars and beyond

#85

Post by ctdonath »

yazaddaruvala wrote: post #80
ctdonath wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Assuming "hard" self-driving... Education: more kids "driving" themselves to school. There's an age where a kid could be trusted to walk alone, but not ready to "drive" there. Get in car, car takes kid to school & back. The one thing stopping my kids from going to a preferred school is we can't drive 'em there at that time; give me a trustworthy car and I'll let it take them there. Play: like above, parents will be m…

Similar to "parking in motion" we might even see "housing in motion"

Good point. Short term parking gets leveraged, car moving to a new spot every few hours while occupants sleep.

Re: Self driving cars and beyond

#87

Post by visarga »

userbinator wrote: post #29
ilovecars2 wrote: post #6

This is kind of a meta comment, but I’ve been lurking on HN for a while on car posts in particular. I have the impression that HN in general doesn’t like cars all that much, and in fact we would be much better of without them. I can’t argue with the facts: congestion and pollution in large cities, such as London, have never been higher where almost all on-road public transport is still run on diesel. However, I think…

I agree, but it's more than just that --- self-driving cars will take more control away from individuals and put that in the hands of corporations and governments, who will have a much easier time tracking --- and even controlling --- the large-scale movement of the population. When they decide to outlaw non-self-driving cars almost completely, "the frog will have been thoroughly boiled." Of course, it's all done und…

You already got one or more GPS wireless tracking devices in your car, though.

Re: Self driving cars and beyond

#88

Post by dominotw »

emanreus wrote: post #73
letscavort22 wrote: post #2

It’s great to explore this topic. You can have a lot of fun in picking a random industry and imagining the effect that self driving will have. Health - beyond the obvious effects on the emergency room, what else? Ambulances willl quite clearly be affected. Why would someone wait minutes for one to arrive when they can just hop in an autocar to go the hospital? Or would the entire emergency room itself be on wheels? (…

> Why would someone wait minutes for one to arrive when they can just hop in an autocar to go the hospital? If you can just hop in and go to the hospital by yourself you don't need an ambulance.

Or use Uber or a taxi

Re: Self driving cars and beyond

#89

Post by dmix »

zerostar07 wrote: post #40

Nobody talks about the infrastructure though. Roads, signs etc can't stay the same, they have to adapt to facilitate autonomous vehicles

I guess you didn't watch it before commenting...this video series mentions infrastructure multiple times throughout.

Almost a whole video in this series talks about infrastructure financing and taxation. As gas taxes, driver's licenses, traffic tickets, parking fines, etc will be eliminated. And 30% of court time currently dedicated to traffic will be eliminated.

It mentions taxing each Uber/Lyft/Waymo fleet ride or automated toll roads with surge pricing instead...

It's going to be a GREAT time to be a city traffic engineer in the next decade....

Re: Self driving cars and beyond

#90

Post by Animats »

We'll probably see self-driving before widespread electric car use. Self-driving is an auto accessory. It's going to come from companies like Continental and Delco, which make auto parts for manufacturers. The big players are targeting 2020 as the year self-driving becomes a more or less standard option. That may slip; Volvo's big Level 4 demo with 100 real users has been pushed back to 2021. But it's getting close. The hardware is here; it's now a software problem.

Electric cars need more infrastructure. Many more charging stations. Cheaper batteries. More lithium and cobalt mines. That will take a bit longer.

Self-driving cars and electric cars are independent technologies. Uber's self driving cars are gasoline-powered Volvos.

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