Earlier quoted context omitted.
Maybe your friend's email server is misconfigured? Incorrect SPF records, etc?
I think the point was that initiating communication with an address is an extremely strong signal of willingness to receive (vs clicking a link, or replying, etc.). I think it's reasonable to expect to receive responses to proactively-initiated threads even if your correspondent isn't optimized for deliverability.
China Will Overtake the US in AI, said Alphabet's Eric Schmidt
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Re: China Will Overtake the US in AI, said Alphabet's Eric Schmidt
#72Earlier quoted context omitted.
I think the point was that initiating communication with an address is an extremely strong signal of willingness to receive (vs clicking a link, or replying, etc.). I think it's reasonable to expect to receive responses to proactively-initiated threads even if your correspondent isn't optimized for deliverability.
I disagree, just because I’ve emailed support@visa.com in the past does not mean I want every spam phishing email pretending to come from support@visa.com reaching my inbox.
Edit: my ideal UX in this situation would be to get the mail in inbox, with a small notice saying "Unverified" and a mouseover/hover text explaining what that means re: SPF records; from there if you mark it as spam it would treat such unverified mail from that domain as spam on an ongoing basis
Re: China Will Overtake the US in AI, said Alphabet's Eric Schmidt
#73Earlier quoted context omitted.
Except those PISA tests only compare urban shanghai to larger more diverse samples in the western world, this is not a very good metric, while education in china is hard from uniform! But sure, not all is going to be even in 7.4 billion people, like not everyone in china is a smart scientist rather than a taxi driver or fuwuyuan. 2% is way too high, especially considering that education on average in china is still m…
I referred to the 2015 PISA test when making those estimates. In 2015, four Chinese provinces took the test including Guangdong, which student's native language is often not mandarin. Their total population is 230 million people. Granted, they are likely above China's average in terms of skills but I read elsewhere that someone involved in PISA said regarding about unofficial PISA 2009 research in other Chinese provi…
Re: China Will Overtake the US in AI, said Alphabet's Eric Schmidt
#74He claims the US government isn't investing in AI. That's false. They're investing in AI, they just aren't giving any money to Google. What would the government do with an AI tuned for advertising? This is likely just Schmidt complaining about not getting free money from the government for once. Besides, it seems like Google is investing plenty of their own money into AI research without the government needing to con…
What US govt investments are you referring to?
Re: China Will Overtake the US in AI, said Alphabet's Eric Schmidt
#75Earlier quoted context omitted.
I disagree, just because I’ve emailed support@visa.com in the past does not mean I want every spam phishing email pretending to come from support@visa.com reaching my inbox.
You make a fair point but you've drawn a slightly broader scenario than I had in mind. Surely if you initiate an email to myfriend@obscureserver.com with the title "Hey buddy" and you get back a reply titled "Re: Hey buddy" from someone alleging to be myfriend@obscureserver.com, you'd want that in your inbox and not spam even with a misconfigured sender on your friend's end... no? Edit: my ideal UX in this situation…
Re: China Will Overtake the US in AI, said Alphabet's Eric Schmidt
#76Earlier quoted context omitted.
I referred to the 2015 PISA test when making those estimates. In 2015, four Chinese provinces took the test including Guangdong, which student's native language is often not mandarin. Their total population is 230 million people. Granted, they are likely above China's average in terms of skills but I read elsewhere that someone involved in PISA said regarding about unofficial PISA 2009 research in other Chinese provi…
Also note that China doesn’t have mandatory schooling after grade 9, while western countries do. That is another source of bias when comparing high school students between the two countries. These numbers are BS for many of those reasons.
Then we’ll need to lower the number of total population used to calculate AI-capable natives somewhat. Given data on primary vs secondary school enrollment, the adjustment ratio is about 0.65. That would adjust the relevant population size down to about 0.9 billion.
This has been an interesting exploration and shows how hard it is to predict the future given so many factors involved. I still believe the broad-stroke prediction that China will lead in AI-based technologies in 2030 will still come true though.
Re: China Will Overtake the US in AI, said Alphabet's Eric Schmidt
#77Earlier quoted context omitted.
>The same goes for data. We can outperform VGGNet trained on all of imagenet (~ 15 million images) using resnet trained on a 1% random sampling of imagenet. We have papers putting forth statistics on specific model architectures outperforming with okay granted, but isn't this largely part of the academic field, openly accessible and transferable? People at Baidu and Tencent are likely up to date on the state of the a…
You see the overall big techniques being published, but there's still a huge gap between papers being published and actual implementation in products. Implementing papers into problem-specific domains always introduced all sorts of challenges as well as new structure to take advantage of. For example, none of the openly available machine translation implementations are anywhere near the proprietary ones.
1) they actually have an older implementation. Not many people have working linguistic voice recognition, as that's really, really hard, and you're just not going to make one of those without a 100-strong multidisciplinary team. There's no real business need to replace it (yet).
2) once you have a multidisciplinary team, the multidisciplinary aspect of it is the main reason for the size of the org. Moving to a pure-AI solution would mean 80% or so of the department would become useless and unable to contribute.
3) I bet the linguistic model looks a whole lot more comfortable to the executives than a pure AI algorithm. After all, a linguistic model will not make "hidden mistakes" (mistakes that the system makes but have never been programmed in). And let's not forget that the last few hidden mistake in a highly public model was confusing African Americans with, shall we say, animal byproducts. Needless to say, this was NOT good PR-wise.
(by the way you should try to have a realistic "let's do this with AI" talk with a senior manager, and you'll see what I mean. "Can you guarantee it won't make mistakes ?", "Nope. In fact I will pretty much guarantee mistakes. It's like a person. It might purposefully make mistakes in the sense that it causes a disaster in one area because it improves it's metrics". "Okay. Can you at least tell me why it made decisions ?", "No. Impossible. Also: please don't believe any AI researcher claiming otherwise". You're asking extremely risk-averse people to take a big leap)
4) Career-opposition. In the large orgs, the senior engineers have their senior position because they improved step 57 of algorithm 21 by 5%. Making proposals to replace everything after step 3 with an end-to-end model ... they will "politely sabotage" it. (e.g. demand guarantees that it won't make mistakes. Request papers proving that it outperforms, not just the function, but every individual step. Demand they illustrate that thousands of slight mistakes won't ever happen, ...)
(you know, like factory workers demanding robot features BECAUSE they figured out that they're ridiculously hard. They have no use for the factory. E.g. demands that a robot responds intelligently to a human walking by ... on a floor where no humans are allowed if any machinery is running. Or demand physical separation of robot action radii, when the software supports those robots working together and this is in fact used in said production line. Makes no sense whatsoever. What are they doing ? They think they're defending their jobs)
I've seen several startup products based on Deepmind's Wavenet, but Microsoft and Google's voice recognition have both said that theirs is based on a linguistic accoustic model. You know, the huge, very very complex, dozens of different components, each their own specialization.
So the opposite of what you'd think is actually what's happening. The organizations doing the cutting edge research are not ahead of the curve, they're behind, far behind, and falling more day by day.
Or to put it another way, you want to see innovation happen ? Find companies that would be dead and bankrupt without that innovation. Google and Microsoft, those are not it. Even facebook is better.
Re: China Will Overtake the US in AI, said Alphabet's Eric Schmidt
#78Earlier quoted context omitted.
You see the overall big techniques being published, but there's still a huge gap between papers being published and actual implementation in products. Implementing papers into problem-specific domains always introduced all sorts of challenges as well as new structure to take advantage of. For example, none of the openly available machine translation implementations are anywhere near the proprietary ones.
True, but that's actually because the implementation in products is worse (older) in the giants, compared to the state of the art. Why ? I don't know, but I suspect there's a lot of reasons: 1) they actually have an older implementation. Not many people have working linguistic voice recognition, as that's really, really hard, and you're just not going to make one of those without a 100-strong multidisciplinary team.…
I don't really believe that the implementations out of the startups are meaningfully/significantly better than the implementations out of Google/Facebook. If they were seriously better they'd be acquired (as we've seen over and over again).