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Self driving cars and beyond

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Re: Self driving cars and beyond

#31

Post by rkcx »

ilovecars2 wrote: post #6

This is kind of a meta comment, but I’ve been lurking on HN for a while on car posts in particular. I have the impression that HN in general doesn’t like cars all that much, and in fact we would be much better of without them. I can’t argue with the facts: congestion and pollution in large cities, such as London, have never been higher where almost all on-road public transport is still run on diesel. However, I think…

The response-by-analogy is that people still ride horses for pleasure, and we should expect to see the same thing with cars: a (comparatively) small base of enthusiasts practicing the activity in a way that doesn't endanger others.

Broadly speaking, it seems like there are an infinite number of potential "simple pleasures" out there that people could enjoy, and if we have a chance to transition lots of people from a simple pleasure that endangers others to other pleasures that don't, we should probably do it.

I think a better way to reason about the tradeoff (since reasoning by analogy is unreliable) is to suppose that we were in a world where cars had always been autonomous, and imagine how it would play out–specifically, would enthusiasts in such a world try and build human-driven cars (maybe?), would they drive human-driven cars on public roads (probably not?), and would the non-enthusiasts feel a sense of longing for the joys of the road (for the most part, no?).

The future we should try to reach is the future that we would aim for regardless of our starting position. To me, that seems like a future where no one has to drive cars, and some people who want to do drive cars, but no one has to be impacted by the manual-driving of cars if they don't want to. So I think the response-by-analogy is probably correct in this case.

Re: Self driving cars and beyond

#32

Post by bjelkeman-again »

adrianN wrote: post #21
KKKKkkkk1 wrote: post #4

A couple of years ago there was a new article on the front page pretty much every day about the great new thing that will change our lives--3D printing. I'm worried that whatever happened to 3D printing is about to happen to self driving. What did happen to 3D printing?

Cheap 3D printers produce only useless plastic trinkets. There isn't a big market for replacement parts that can't take any load, because those things don't break very often. Very few people need to print cases or the like in exotic forms. Buying traditionally manufactured stuff is cheaper than printing it yourself. However, 3D printers are used in the industry. Not only for prototyping but also for producing parts t…

Not disaagreeing. It is possible to print useful plastic items. But what I found interesting when doing the research for a product we where producing, was that the price per item on a €1800 3D printer was about the same as producing them in quantities up to 2500-5000 units in India. The difference obviously was how many you could produce in a month, and higher quality from the injection moulded stuff.

I had expected the price difference to be more. In the end we didn’t go to larger volumes due to weak interest in the product.

The main benefit, as you point out, was the fast turnaround in prototyping.

Re: Self driving cars and beyond

#33

Post by thisisit »

KKKKkkkk1 wrote: post #4

A couple of years ago there was a new article on the front page pretty much every day about the great new thing that will change our lives--3D printing. I'm worried that whatever happened to 3D printing is about to happen to self driving. What did happen to 3D printing?

Last I checked there was a pivot to a (not exactly) new term - adaptive manufacturing.

On the printing side, I remember some companies getting into metal 3-D printing but I guess they are not exactly unicorn material.

Re: Self driving cars and beyond

#34

Post by bjelkeman-again »

ilovecars2 wrote: post #28
iraphael wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I’m not talking about being stuck in traffic, which is often a issue with poor planning and lack of infrastructure investment rather than an issue with cars themselves I disagree with this statement. I believe that cars are not a transportation solution that scales like public transportation, for instance, does. For these same reasons I believe Musk's Boring Company's plans are exactly the wrong kind of urban plann…

> I believe that cars are not a transportation solution that scales like public transportation, for instance, does. One thing I would like to add is that public transport is too very difficult to scale. For example, the Northern, Central and Piccadilly lines on London Underground are massively overcrowded to the extent where it’s borderline dangerous. I don’t really know what TFL can do about it, because the lines al…

Having lived in London I am starting to wonder if really large cities aren’t going to suffer under overcrowding and increased housing prices to the point where it very painfully (maybe) self regulates?

Re: Self driving cars and beyond

#35

Post by EarthIsHome »

adrianN wrote: post #23
rimliu wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How? We already have means to get from point a to point b without driving ourselves. Sure, technology would be amazing, but besides that?

Autocars have the potential to reduce the price of this kind of transportation by an order of magnitude.

> Autocars have the potential to reduce the price of this kind of transportation by an order of magnitude.

Could you cite this? I find this hard to believe. I currently pay around $70/month for an "unlimited trips" Marta transit card in Atlanta.

It gets me anywhere I want to go within the city. Getting out of the city is another story.

Re: Self driving cars and beyond

#36

Post by crwalker »

KKKKkkkk1 wrote: post #4

A couple of years ago there was a new article on the front page pretty much every day about the great new thing that will change our lives--3D printing. I'm worried that whatever happened to 3D printing is about to happen to self driving. What did happen to 3D printing?

What happened to 3D printing (ran and sold a small startup in this space):

We realized that the vision of a 3D printer in every house was absurd. Consumer ≠ designer. Amazon is cheaper, faster, easier, higher quality unless I am putting on my design/engineering hat and doing R&D/NPI.

We realized that 3D printers are just manufacturing tools, albeit really interesting ones. They belong in places where you might find CNC machines, laser cutters, etc.

3D printing is quietly revolutionizing small areas of R&D/NPI/MFG in every field. For instance, small to medium volume end part manufacturing: https://www.jabil.com/insights/blog-main/3d-printing-reality...

Lots of technologies are maturing and costs are coming down as the ecosystem moves from a high margin low volume prototyping mindset to a low margin high volume manufacturing mindset (look up MJF, EBAM, DMLS, EBM, CLIP, LOM, etc. in addition to the well known FDM and SLA technologies).

Re: Self driving cars and beyond

#37

Post by slyall »

ilovecars2 wrote: post #28
iraphael wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I’m not talking about being stuck in traffic, which is often a issue with poor planning and lack of infrastructure investment rather than an issue with cars themselves I disagree with this statement. I believe that cars are not a transportation solution that scales like public transportation, for instance, does. For these same reasons I believe Musk's Boring Company's plans are exactly the wrong kind of urban plann…

> I believe that cars are not a transportation solution that scales like public transportation, for instance, does. One thing I would like to add is that public transport is too very difficult to scale. For example, the Northern, Central and Piccadilly lines on London Underground are massively overcrowded to the extent where it’s borderline dangerous. I don’t really know what TFL can do about it, because the lines al…

> One thing I would like to add is that public transport is too very difficult to scale

A quick check show the Piccadilly line is doing 21 trains per hour and they have a capacity of 684 people. Around 14,000 people per hour.

That is roughly a 7 lanes of highway traffic under optimal conditions. Not even thinking about the other direction.

I think you find that it is easer to build a new underground line though central London than a 10+ lane highway.

Re: Self driving cars and beyond

#38

Post by [deleted] »

ilovecars2 wrote: post #6

This is kind of a meta comment, but I’ve been lurking on HN for a while on car posts in particular. I have the impression that HN in general doesn’t like cars all that much, and in fact we would be much better of without them. I can’t argue with the facts: congestion and pollution in large cities, such as London, have never been higher where almost all on-road public transport is still run on diesel. However, I think…

[deleted]

Re: Self driving cars and beyond

#39

Post by clfougner »

ilovecars2 wrote: post #30
transpostmeta wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, this is a selfish opinion. Traffic kills a lot of people, and it's not just the ones doing the driving. Traffic is terrible for the environment, causes noise pollution and respiratory illness. I can understand that some people need to drive. But driving for pleasure is not something that should ever happen.

What is your opinion on flying for pleasure (i.e vacation)? We know that flying too is very damaging for the environment and creates terrible noise pollution. Would love to hear your thoughts on this!

That isn’t the same thing at all. When you fly for a vacation, the flying is a means to an end (transportation), not the goal in itself. This discussion is about driving for fun, in which the driving is the goal in itself, not transporting yourself to a “fun” destination.
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