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26% of violent crime convicts account for 63% of violent crime conviction (2014)

ncbi.nlm.nih.gov

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Re: 26% of violent crime convicts account for 63% of violent crime conviction (2014)

#121

Post by guelo »

zarkov99 wrote: post #75
splitrocket wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This study indicates that incarceration, at least as it is currently implemented, is emphatically not a deterrent for repeat violent offenders. As for the public safety element, yes, but these people mostly weren’t locked up for life. What this shows, at least, in my opinion, is that much more intensive psychological and therapeutic interventions are needed, because if anything, incarceration as it currently exists w…

Or, more simply, you could incarcerate repeat offenders for longer periods of time.

Studies show that things like three strike laws do reduce crime rates. But, for example in California, it costs $70k per year to jail them. Intensive outpatient therapy costs half as much. If we moved to two strikes and then mandatory high expensive therapy it could be more humans and cost effective.

Re: 26% of violent crime convicts account for 63% of violent crime conviction (2014)

#122

Post by justAnotherNET »

pron wrote: post #113
coldtea wrote: post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> What you are saying is troubling because it shows that many people really don't understand what it is that we call racist -- and it's not studies like these. I am a radical leftist (and a radical feminist) and I do not consider a statistical assertion such as "black people in the US are significantly overrepresented among those who commit violent crimes" at all as racist. You might not, but lots of people do -- and…

Not true, and this is precisely what I find troubling -- that you misunderstand them and miss the actual problem they point out. Obviously, I can't vouch for everyone , but since I haven't seen any behavior of the kind you refer to (certainly not among more-or-less mainstream figure), I can safely assume it's not done by "lots of people".

Do we need to start linking famous peoples tweets to show that your position is false?

Plenty of people jump on the “that’s racism” bandwagon. If they can’t attack the math they attack the author and make wild accusations about their intent.

Truth is treason in an empire of lies, and socially most would rather live with comfortable lies.

Re: 26% of violent crime convicts account for 63% of violent crime conviction (2014)

#123

Post by troupe »

evgen wrote: post #62
splitrocket wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Let me put it this way: the current “standard” criminal justice system is exceedingly effective at dissuading the sort of people who designed and operate the system from committing crime, but those folks are not the population that in fact commit crimes.

In the minds of many people the purpose of the system is not entirely to deter crime; some criminals will not be deterred and the secondary purpose of the system is to segregate such people from society by placing them into little boxes until the system decides they are no longer a danger to the rest of us.

> until the system decides they are no longer a danger to the rest of us.

Which kind of implies that one of the goals of prison is/should be to move to a state where they are no longer a danger.

Re: 26% of violent crime convicts account for 63% of violent crime conviction (2014)

#124

Post by justAnotherNET »

whatyoucantsay wrote: post #96
pron wrote: post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What you are saying is troubling because it shows that many people really don't understand what it is that we call racist -- and it's not studies like these. I am a radical leftist (and a radical feminist) and I do not consider a statistical assertion such as "black people in the US are significantly overrepresented among those who commit violent crimes" at all as racist. What is racist (not just "labeled" racist; we…

> "Xenophobia and misogyny imply a certain intent, a certain feeling of resentment towards other races, cultures and genders" Xenophobia means "fear of outsiders" and misogyny means "hatred or contempt of women". There's nothing implied or indirect about either.

Nope, Xenophobia means the irrational fear of outsiders.

In-group bias has a distinct evolutionary advantage. Rational fear of the unknown keeps you alive.

To correctly classify someone has xenophobic you need to demonstrate their irrationality.

Re: 26% of violent crime convicts account for 63% of violent crime conviction (2014)

#125

Post by benjyhirsch »

Some of these risk factors have possible non-causal explanations that I don't see addressed in a quick scan of the paper:

1) Even if every person had the same random chance of being convicted of a violent crime each year from the age of 15 on, one would expect those convicted before age 19 to have been convicted of more crimes than those whose first conviction is after age 19, and those convicted of more crimes to be more likely to have their first conviction at an earlier age.

2) As for the various mental health factors: not sure if the "Hospital Discharge Register" includes prison hospitals, but one might imagine people who've spent more time in prison being more likely to have mental health evaluations, and prison doctors being more trigger-happy about diagnosing major disorders. Even if the Hospital Discharge Register doesn't include prison hospitals, other mental health professionals who know of someone's criminal history might be similarly trigger-happy about their diagnoses, or diagnoses from prison might become part of their medical record that's read at other hospitals.

Did someone who read it more carefully see these possibilities mentioned?

Re: 26% of violent crime convicts account for 63% of violent crime conviction (2014)

#126

Post by rayiner »

flexie wrote: post #68
rayiner wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not even close. The vast majority of Sweden is ethnic Swedes. The big minority group is ethnic Finns. 87% of the country is Lutheran (as of 2012). In the US, probably no ethnic group (e.g. Irish or English) has more than 20%.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_ranked_by_... Check out the list based on Alesina’s analysis. Or go to Sweden. In the younger population groups, muslims are now are huge minority.

That index lists Canada as more diverse than the US, which is definitely false having been to both.

Online sources suggest about 30% of Stockholm is non-Swedish, and most of those people are European. New York and Chicago are only about 30-35% European descent, and that’s mixed between Irish, German, Swedish, English, etc.

Re: 26% of violent crime convicts account for 63% of violent crime conviction (2014)

#127

Post by zarkov99 »

mapgrep wrote: post #100
zarkov99 wrote: post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Or, more simply, you could incarcerate repeat offenders for longer periods of time.

What is the concrete benefit of simplicity in this context, and how do you quantify whatever that benefit is? Becaue the cost is both clear and intensive: Depriving a human being of liberty for additional years or decades. This should be done only when absolutely neccessary, should it not? We disapprove of imprisonable offenses intensely, but these are still human beings, with rights. It seems to me a humane system d…

Simple in the sense that if you can identify this 1%, keeping them locked up or otherwise away from the rest of society longer will very effectively reduce crime. There is no way that therapy is going to be as effective. We are talking about repeated violent offenders here, really dangerous individuals. Of course they are still people but their happiness is secondary to keeping them from repeatedly inflicting harm on innocents.

Re: 26% of violent crime convicts account for 63% of violent crime conviction (2014)

#128

Post by maxerickson »

coldtea wrote: post #80
weberc2 wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> More like the people who designed and operate the system consider everything they do legal This is true by definition. Anyway, what sort of violent crime do you propose to legalize?

Bar brawls between consenting adults.

It'd be interesting to see how often the state presses assault charges without much participation from one of the parties involved.

Re: 26% of violent crime convicts account for 63% of violent crime conviction (2014)

#129

Post by LarryDarrell »

Having lived poor places across the US for the last 15 years, I have come up with two root causes for the violence I have seen.

1. Drug prohibition related. 2. Keeping it Real going wrong.

The Drug War and inter-generational poverty are two tough nuts to crack. The American mythology of Bootstraps and Individualism that's so baked into our culture gives us limited toolsets for dealing with these problems because they helped create the problems in the first place.

Re: 26% of violent crime convicts account for 63% of violent crime conviction (2014)

#130

Post by scarmig »

coldtea wrote: post #76
evgen wrote: post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In the minds of many people the purpose of the system is not entirely to deter crime; some criminals will not be deterred and the secondary purpose of the system is to segregate such people from society by placing them into little boxes until the system decides they are no longer a danger to the rest of us.

Lots of people (in the US at least, not, say, Sweden) care more about revenge and suffering inflicted on the criminals than rehabilitating them (or even preventing them from doing more harm -- they are e.g. totally ok if they do more harm, but inside, to other inmates). What I hope is that those people get to experience prison for inside, and even better, for some BS reason, like the reasons tons of people are in jai…

Isn't there a bit of irony there? In that you want to send the send-people-to-prison-to-suffer people to prison to suffer?
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