The ORs for various factors are all lower than the OR for Y chromosomes. I take this to mean we don't really have a good model of what causes persistent criminality, but we do have good evidence that it exists. A frustrating situation.
26% of violent crime convicts account for 63% of violent crime conviction (2014)
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Re: 26% of violent crime convicts account for 63% of violent crime conviction (2014)
#12Humans consistently make the same mistake about understand the motivations, the inhibiting and promoting pressures of other people. We assume that everyone else is exactly like us. Therefore, when we build systems and institutions that attempt to alter behavior, we encode our own motivations and desires as the impetus.
I.E. why we have UX researchers, do user testing, A/B testing etc when we develop products. Our instincts about what other folks will pay for/want/value/use are rarely totally accurate.
“I don’t want to go to jail, therefore, jail will be a globally effective crime deterrent” is demonstrably false for this subset of the population.
From a purely behavioral science perspective, we know that humans deeply discount uncertain future downsides compared to short term certain upsides.
If you are interested in this sort of stuff, I strongly suggest reading Mark Kleinman, particularly his work on “swift, certain, fair” as an effective means to address this population and challenge.
Re: 26% of violent crime convicts account for 63% of violent crime conviction (2014)
#13The ORs for various factors are all lower than the OR for Y chromosomes. I take this to mean we don't really have a good model of what causes persistent criminality, but we do have good evidence that it exists. A frustrating situation.
Testosterone
Re: 26% of violent crime convicts account for 63% of violent crime conviction (2014)
#14Studies like this are hard, because they're usually labeled 'racist', or it turns into an ad hominem attack on the authors, or struck down in the media for singling out some minority group. I love the wording as it has a focus on the positive; summed up it basically says: we can't help those who we can't identity.
This is why sex differences were reported and racial differences were not.
It just leads to uncomfortable places, especially in the context of Swedish society.
Re: 26% of violent crime convicts account for 63% of violent crime conviction (2014)
#15Studies like this are hard, because they're usually labeled 'racist', or it turns into an ad hominem attack on the authors, or struck down in the media for singling out some minority group. I love the wording as it has a focus on the positive; summed up it basically says: we can't help those who we can't identity.
I guess it’s easier in Sweden which is not especially diverse. Also it’s worth noting that these are convictions so will be missing any unreported violence, or that police didn’t follow up on, or that got off on technicalities
Good point. Any similar studies from more diverse countries?
This study is not as comprehensive but in 30-state USA study, 77% of prisoners are jailed again within 5 years of release:
Re: 26% of violent crime convicts account for 63% of violent crime conviction (2014)
#16>Persistence in violence was associated with male sex (OR 2.5), personality disorder (OR 2.3), violent crime conviction before age 19 (OR 2.0), drug-related offenses (OR 1.9), nonviolent criminality (OR 1.9), substance use disorder (OR 1.9), and major mental disorder (OR 1.3). It sounds like we need to invest more in mental health.
And perhaps divest ourselves of the idea that putting one time violent offenders in a building full of other violent offenders will somehow reduce the likelihood of future offense.
Re: 26% of violent crime convicts account for 63% of violent crime conviction (2014)
#17An interesting 20/80 rule going on here. The good news is if we can fix whatever issues affect this 1%, we solve 63% of violent crimes. Or maybe I'm naive.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confusion_matrix
The challenge is to fix that 1%, without terrorizing the N% who look vaguely similar.
Re: 26% of violent crime convicts account for 63% of violent crime conviction (2014)
#18>Persistence in violence was associated with male sex (OR 2.5), personality disorder (OR 2.3), violent crime conviction before age 19 (OR 2.0), drug-related offenses (OR 1.9), nonviolent criminality (OR 1.9), substance use disorder (OR 1.9), and major mental disorder (OR 1.3). It sounds like we need to invest more in mental health.
Do we? How do you draw that conclusion from the data? Personality disorders seem to be fairly resistant to treatment/therapy, and certainly more than 1% of the population has issues with mental health, yet they don’t seem to commit crimes at such an alarming rate.
I’m not saying you’re wrong, but I don’t think your conclusion is directly supported by this study.
Re: 26% of violent crime convicts account for 63% of violent crime conviction (2014)
#19Before anyone espouses their favorite theory, you should note this study covers Sweden from 1973-2004 which is a very ethnically and relatively-economically homogeneous country with a population of < 10M people.
What does ethnic homogeneity have to do with this?
Re: 26% of violent crime convicts account for 63% of violent crime conviction (2014)
#20The ORs for various factors are all lower than the OR for Y chromosomes. I take this to mean we don't really have a good model of what causes persistent criminality, but we do have good evidence that it exists. A frustrating situation.
Testosterone
It's always interesting to see that there's a segment of the public discourse that consistently hammers on "melanin" as a predictor of crime, but ignores "testosterone"....