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FiveThirtyEight relaunches on NYTimes.com

thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com

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Re: FiveThirtyEight relaunches on NYTimes.com

#4

Congrats to Nate Silver for his fantastic job. 538's success in predicting the 08 elections was really impressive and glad to see him get even more (well-deserved) coverage.

How about his failure in predicting UK elections results, US unemployment rate, Maine's same sex marriage vote, special Senate elections in Massachusetts? These are just a few examples that I remember. But then the NY Times thinks that Krugman deserves the coverage too...

Re: FiveThirtyEight relaunches on NYTimes.com

#6
post #4

Congrats to Nate Silver for his fantastic job. 538's success in predicting the 08 elections was really impressive and glad to see him get even more (well-deserved) coverage.

How about his failure in predicting UK elections results, US unemployment rate, Maine's same sex marriage vote, special Senate elections in Massachusetts? These are just a few examples that I remember. But then the NY Times thinks that Krugman deserves the coverage too...

You do realize that even people who have incredibly good prediction records, do get things wrong. You can't really point to a specific thing and say, "you suck because you didn't predict this". Look at the totality of their record.

And Krugman has a Nobel Prize in Economics, and numerous other awards for his work in Economics. I honestly think you'd be hardpressed to find a more qualified economist (on matters of economics). You may not agree with him, but I don't think anyone at the NYTimes is losing sleep grappling with the issue of if Paul Krugman is worthy of being in the paper.

Re: FiveThirtyEight relaunches on NYTimes.com

#7
post #4

Congrats to Nate Silver for his fantastic job. 538's success in predicting the 08 elections was really impressive and glad to see him get even more (well-deserved) coverage.

How about his failure in predicting UK elections results, US unemployment rate, Maine's same sex marriage vote, special Senate elections in Massachusetts? These are just a few examples that I remember. But then the NY Times thinks that Krugman deserves the coverage too...

Agree that we should be thoughtful of the misses as well as the hits, and he's had some misses.

However, I didn't recall Silver getting the special MA Senate election of Scott Brown wrong, and he seems not to have: (http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/01/538-model-posits-brow...). It would have been surprising if he did, since it was an easy one. Were you thinking of a different election?

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