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Musk explains why SpaceX prefers clusters of small engines

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Re: Musk explains why SpaceX prefers clusters of small engines

#81
post #79
post #11

One thing not mentioned is throttle range. Larger engines can’t throttle down as low as smaller ones. That’s irrelevant for launches, but matters crucially for landing. I know the F9 engines can’t throttle down to a hover, even on a single engine with the fuel tanks mostly empty, but I’m sure they did all their landings up until the last few on a single engine that throttled down to its lowest setting for a reason. C…

The recent falcon heavy launch (and some falcon 9 launches before it) actually had the boosters land using 3 engines. So going by ratio, it should still be able to land if it had 3 larger engines. This 3 engine landing failed for the centre core, which is why it was lost. Specifically, there wasn't enough 'lighter fluid' to relight all 3 engines required, only one engine was lit. Thus the booster tried a 3-engine lan…

Sure, which is why I said up until the last few, but if you look at the footage of the two boosters landing closely they didn’t simply do a 3 engine landing burn.

They powered up the centre engine, then lit two engines either side of it, but then turned those off a few seconds before landing and still actually landed on a single engine for the last ten seconds or so. It’s hard to be sure exactly because the telephoto footage of the booster catches the start of the burns but misses the side engines shutting down. But when it pans back on to the engines, it’s clear only one of them is still lit (with one other flaring off some unspent fuel). That’s a very precise and tuneable thrust curve you wouldn’t be able to do with one bigger engine.

Re: Musk explains why SpaceX prefers clusters of small engines

#82
post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To answer the first question, you use a fault tree analysis to predict potential failure starting points (like a broken component) and then describe how those failures will propagate through the system. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fault_tree_analysis For an example, say I'm building a system that needs to hold a block of aluminum at 550C, 99% of the time. Okay, so you add a thermocouple and a heater to it, easy. Wh…

Is there a name for (or keywords to search for) weighing the tradeoffs between attempting to reduce failure effects in a component itself vs addressing them at the system level? E.g. while you could mechanically debounce a button itself, it's usually easier to engineer the system in such a way that trigger bounce doesn't cause issues Wondering how the call is made on where the appropriate fix to increase reliability…

So the proper way to think about this is in terms of where you put abstractions. Much like you'd write a function or library, you can abstract physical machines by idealizing the component in a system.

I don't think it's really a separate keyword to search for. This is all probabilities.

The math isn't complex, the hard part is writing down a complete graph of all the connections between different components, environments, and failure scenarios. If your valve is made of five parts, and one of them has a 10% chance of failing per year, then your valve has a 10% chance of failing per year. If it has two parts that have a 10% chance of failing in a year, then assuming independent failures the total probability of failure of that component is 19% in a year.

These numbers are rarely known with so much precision during initial design. Consider it akin to estimating the probability of certain kinds of predictable bugs in a library you're using. How much do you trust that github repository vs intel? The most robust thing to do is typically to design around your best guesses but then do validation testing to refine your guesses.

So if I think a critical valve or seal has a high probability of failure but have low confidence in what the probability is, I'll take that valve or seal and literally set up a test case to make sure it performs as expected. Then I can collect real statistics and go from there. Data >> Guesses, but the systems are so complex that guesses are where you have to start.

Then you'd basically put the system together, one part at a time, and validate with each added part that the entire system still behaves as expected. And you throw in some edge cases to ensure that controls are working properly, like perhaps in the aluminum heater case you'd simply break a thermocouple yourself to ensure that the safety system works. But you'd do that in testing, not in production.

It's really very analogous to unit tests, unsurprisingly because the need is similar. I've had vendors ship me special custom thermocouples that they claimed would run for 10 years at 600C. We threw them in an oven as a trivial validation test. They caught fire. We didn't use that vendor again. But by analogy that's how the firmware blob you get from a vendor is too. They sure claim it does something, but until you've done real testing with it who knows?

As you pin down the true probabilities of different failures, you just propagate them through your graph of possible failures to estimate the probability of different scenarios and focus on the high risk and high likelihood events. Sometimes the risk is as simple as "the system will be down for an hour while we replace a failed component". No biggie, maintenance is an expected cost. Sometimes the risk is a nuclear plant meltdown.

EDIT: The goal of the above is to identify which causes result in critical failures with high likelihood. Once you've identified them, then you focus down on addressing the root cause. It's more about identifying where problems would start if there were a bad scenario, so you know where to spend more attention in quality control.

If you identify that the debouncing is a cause where if it doesn't work your machine doesn't work as needed, the actual solutions could be software or hardware. What's the relative probability that each solution will work? How costly is a failure? How much does it cost to implement? At that point you're talking cost models with reliability requirements as an input.

Re: Musk explains why SpaceX prefers clusters of small engines

#83
post #78

There's something I don't understand about space travel. We made it to the moon in 1969, on the first computer to use ICs[1]. Since then we've seen monumental advances in computer science, material science, manufacturing, rocketry, and just about any other component of space flight. Why 50 years later is it still such a relatively difficult task to launch a rocket into space? Why is it still so expensive and failure…

It has to do with the rocket equation [1]. Getting into orbit requires a lot of 'delta-V'. Part of this is gravity (needing to move up the gravity well) but more important are speed (you need to go really fast to stay in orbit) and aerodynamic drag when moving through the atmosphere. There have been no real improvements to the exhaust velocity of rocket engines (at least none that work to get into orbit). As such, to…

> Part of this is gravity (needing to move up the gravity well) but more important are speed (you need to go really fast to stay in orbit)

Technically speaking, the speed requirement is due to gravity as well.

Re: Musk explains why SpaceX prefers clusters of small engines

#84
post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

IIRC, the engines in the Falcon 9 are pretty well separated from each other, such that even a catastrophic failure of one engine is survivable by the rest. Indeed, that seems to be what happened the one time an engine did fail (albeit on a very early version of the Falcon 9 with the "square" engine layout): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dvTIh96otDw

I believe that was actually the reason why they moved to a "round" configuration. They realized that the "corner" engines were doing more work, and if one of them failed it caused larger issues than they were expecting. However in the "round" layout, all of the engines are doing the same amount of work and have a similar amount of control over the rocket, so one failing can be more easily compensated for by the surro…

I believe it was not due to this but due to mass savings. The square grid layout uses more material and in a less symmetric way too.

Re: Musk explains why SpaceX prefers clusters of small engines

#85
post #81
post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The recent falcon heavy launch (and some falcon 9 launches before it) actually had the boosters land using 3 engines. So going by ratio, it should still be able to land if it had 3 larger engines. This 3 engine landing failed for the centre core, which is why it was lost. Specifically, there wasn't enough 'lighter fluid' to relight all 3 engines required, only one engine was lit. Thus the booster tried a 3-engine lan…

Sure, which is why I said up until the last few, but if you look at the footage of the two boosters landing closely they didn’t simply do a 3 engine landing burn. They powered up the centre engine, then lit two engines either side of it, but then turned those off a few seconds before landing and still actually landed on a single engine for the last ten seconds or so. It’s hard to be sure exactly because the telephoto…

Ah I see.

Interesting about the final part of the landing occurring with a single engine even with a 3 engine landing. Makes me wonder why they don't do something like 9 engines for the breaking burn and then switch to a single engine for the landing part. It might just be that is their final plan but 3 is easier to test than 9.

Re: Musk explains why SpaceX prefers clusters of small engines

#86
> using large numbers of small computers ends up being a more efficient, smarter, and faster approach than using a few larger, more powerful computers

Huh? Using large numbers of small computers is definitely smarter and more cost effective. I'm surprised by the claim that it's more efficient and faster. The moment what you are doing needs to hit the network you eat some real costs in terms of efficiency and latency.

Re: Musk explains why SpaceX prefers clusters of small engines

#87
post #85
post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sure, which is why I said up until the last few, but if you look at the footage of the two boosters landing closely they didn’t simply do a 3 engine landing burn. They powered up the centre engine, then lit two engines either side of it, but then turned those off a few seconds before landing and still actually landed on a single engine for the last ten seconds or so. It’s hard to be sure exactly because the telephoto…

Ah I see. Interesting about the final part of the landing occurring with a single engine even with a 3 engine landing. Makes me wonder why they don't do something like 9 engines for the breaking burn and then switch to a single engine for the landing part. It might just be that is their final plan but 3 is easier to test than 9.

It’s possible, they might gradually start using the three engines for longer, then maybe even use more engines. I doubt the last part though, the burns aren’t for very long already and I think 3 engines probably gives plenty of kick. There’s also the issue of fuel flow dynamics to the engines, but only SpaceX will have any idea about that.

Re: Musk explains why SpaceX prefers clusters of small engines

#88

There's something I don't understand about space travel. We made it to the moon in 1969, on the first computer to use ICs[1]. Since then we've seen monumental advances in computer science, material science, manufacturing, rocketry, and just about any other component of space flight. Why 50 years later is it still such a relatively difficult task to launch a rocket into space? Why is it still so expensive and failure…

Apollo cost ~$120-$150 billion in today's dollar. Falcon Heavy cost $500m-$1b to get right. Given some time, Musk could probably make it so a trip to the Moon costs $300 million, maybe less. We've ( they've ) accomplished an extraordinary cost improvement. It's still such a monumental task, because the laws of physics have not changed. Building a huge rocket, putting people in it, and firing it at the Moon, is not th…

That’s not quite a fair comparison. The $500m to $1bn was just for the heavy variant, it doesn’t include the cost of developing the F9 itself. Musk has previously estimated the cost of just developing the landing capability by itself at about $1bn. But still, yes it’s a lot less than Saturn V.

Re: Musk explains why SpaceX prefers clusters of small engines

#89

There's something I don't understand about space travel. We made it to the moon in 1969, on the first computer to use ICs[1]. Since then we've seen monumental advances in computer science, material science, manufacturing, rocketry, and just about any other component of space flight. Why 50 years later is it still such a relatively difficult task to launch a rocket into space? Why is it still so expensive and failure…

Look at some of the other responses here, they give a hint.

The core problem is lack of reuse, which means you expend one hugely expensive aerospace vehicle per flight, massively increasing per flight costs. Importantly, the optimizations for expendable flight actually drive you away from optimizing for reusability. Expendable vehicles tend to have fewer engines on the first stage, cheaper first stages, and expensive, advanced upper stages. The Falcon 9 intentionally places the majority of hardware costs in the first stage, uses a cluster of engines, and is thus more suitable for reusability (it's easier because landings are easier, it's more worthwhile because most of the hardware cost of a launch is in the booster).

On top of that you have the fact that throughout the world launch vehicle development has traditionally been dominated by only a few major programs that were run by governments. That substantially restricted rocket development due to the bureaucracy and the different needs and goals of governments vs. launch vehicle customers at large (governments are risk averse, have big pockets, etc.) Additionally, launch vehicle development was heavily restricted as a practical matter during the Cold War. Launch vehicles serve as dual use ICBMs, and the first launchers were indeed repurposed ICBMs. Meaning launch vehicle development had very serious national defense and geopolitical implications, so you didn't see a bunch of "space launch startups" during the Cold War the way you see today (SpaceX, Blue Origin, Rocket Labs, etc.) Then there's the brain drain on aerospace technical talent during the Cold War as well. If you had the education or the skills to work on this stuff then most likely you were pulled into some military or government aerospace project since that's where the money (and the national interest) was.

Engineers in the 1960s and '70s could have built reusable rockets if that had been the goal, but it never really was. Even with the Space Shuttle the priority was covering the political bases first (being able to serve the needs of everyone who was supporting the program and keeping it funded) and practical cost savings a distant second.

Re: Musk explains why SpaceX prefers clusters of small engines

#90

There's something I don't understand about space travel. We made it to the moon in 1969, on the first computer to use ICs[1]. Since then we've seen monumental advances in computer science, material science, manufacturing, rocketry, and just about any other component of space flight. Why 50 years later is it still such a relatively difficult task to launch a rocket into space? Why is it still so expensive and failure…

The political and public will isn't there to spend hundreds of billions of dollars to do it. Luckily with SapceX and Blue Horizon making things so much cheaper, we can get that will back.
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