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Dow plunges 1000 points

cnbc.com

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Re: Dow plunges 1000 points

#291

Post by 111_1_111 »

pfarnsworth wrote: post #269
longerthoughts wrote: post #186

To put things in perspective: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_daily_changes_... Saying "Biggest Point Drop in History" is a deliberate attention-grabber and incites more fear than it probably should. We should be more concerned with percentage changes and at -4.6% this doesn't even make the top 20 daily percentage drops, which cuts off at -6.98% for number 20 (see above link).

The only ones that matter are the ones that occur after roughly 1995. Most people weren't in mutual funds or stocks the way they are today. When the stock market dropped 50% in 2008/2009, so many people in retirement age were ruined because their retirement money was in the markets. A greater number of people's financial health is based on the stock market in 2018 than it ever did in the 1930s or 40s. In 1987, when t…

Out of curiousity, where do you think people should put their money if not the stock market?

Re: Dow plunges 1000 points

#292

Post by megy »

JKCalhoun wrote: post #40
valuearb wrote: post #14

I hate to be nitpicking about good news, but the S&P 500 is down less than 7% from it's peak, that's hardly a crash. Especially after gaining 26% over the previous year. And, after increasing over 90% the last 5 years. Obviously, either way a decline in the stock market indexes is good news for almost everyone. I'm hoping for a real crash as I need to save lots more money, not just for my retirement but also for my k…

Not a crash, but the gains of January have just been wiped out in the few days of February trading.

Yup. So what. This means nothing.

Re: Dow plunges 1000 points

#293

Post by samschooler »

arbuge wrote: post #279
jimmytucson wrote: post #257

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Right. Better yet, wait for the end of this correction, then buy more stock. Better still, sell any stock you own, and at the end of this correction, buy it all back and more at a cheaper price. Yeah, that’s the ticket! Guys, all we need to do is find out when this correction is going to end. I feel like we can narrow it down to between one day and one year from now.

>> wait for the end of this correction How exactly do you decide the end of it has been reached?

That's the million dollar question, and is the exact reason why this strategy (and no strategy) is a silver bullet.

Re: Dow plunges 1000 points

#294

Post by bilkoo »

dahart wrote: post #272
state_less wrote: post #193

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wasn't a big fan of the tax cuts, even though I'll see the proceeds from them. Some think that the less you pay, the better, all the way to zero. In my view, taxes are like porridge, you don't want it too hot or too cold. The best amount is not too little or too much. I too worry about the deficit and think we need to tax the biggest gainers a bit more and provide safety nets for the economic losers so they can bre…

I quite like your reasonable, balanced approach. I've always been curious about your last point though: > There needs to be an incentive to to do well and I'd be against cutting into that too deeply. I've never understood why any tax rate would be a disincentive to do well. Even if the tax rate was 90%, doing well is doing well. If I make more money, I get to keep more money, even if taxes are high. If we have tax br…

Marginal return. If working an extra hour per day will give me $100 pre-tax, tax rate being 10% and 90% will largely determine whether I'd do the extra work, versus spending that hour with family etc. Everyone has different threshold for pay/fun ratios but overall society will be less productive as tax rates go up at least in the static sense (not considering tax money being put into productivity-increasing use).

Re: Dow plunges 1000 points

#295

Post by cinquemb »

exolymph wrote: post #262
JKCalhoun wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not a crash, but the gains of January have just been wiped out in the few days of February trading.

If you're a normal person, not a day-trader, the time horizon your investments should be on the order of years, not months. If you're a day-trader, then this is just one of the risks of that choice.

If you're a normal person, who had a decently sized/exposed market retirement account in 2007, it took you about a decade to get back to the same level, inflation adjusted.

That's a lot of risk for chasing inflation adjusted returns…

Not to mention, there are a couple short volitilty ETFs that will be terminated soon, hope some long term ETF buyers won't be exposed to them or any big names they are holding who were exposed, because we're not done yet…

Re: Dow plunges 1000 points

#296

Post by thomasrognon »

cmontella wrote: post #281
sanderjd wrote: post #228

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It seems pretty straightforward: they likely aren't in favor of those policies either.

Who is "they" exactly? The party that spent the past 8 years talking about how deficits and spending are going to destroy the country are currently running things... and looking to increase deficits and spending. Self labeled "fiscal conservatives" just voted for a $1.5T unfunded tax cut, banking on essentially fairy dust (trickle down economic voodoo) to save the budget.

There's more than just Democrat and Republican out there.

Re: Dow plunges 1000 points

#297

Post by plaguuuuuu »

arthurjj wrote: post #114

For most HN readers this means you should be buying more stock.

People are out of their minds over a couple of minor red days and pullback to maybe one or two months ago. IMO it betrays a much deeper fragility in market confidence.

I'm pretty new to finance and haven't lived through a crash yet, but IMHO, the show is not over, not by a long shot. And the longer we go without a crash, the more extreme it's gonna be.

Re: Dow plunges 1000 points

#298

Post by rlanday »

dahart wrote: post #272
state_less wrote: post #193

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wasn't a big fan of the tax cuts, even though I'll see the proceeds from them. Some think that the less you pay, the better, all the way to zero. In my view, taxes are like porridge, you don't want it too hot or too cold. The best amount is not too little or too much. I too worry about the deficit and think we need to tax the biggest gainers a bit more and provide safety nets for the economic losers so they can bre…

I quite like your reasonable, balanced approach. I've always been curious about your last point though: > There needs to be an incentive to to do well and I'd be against cutting into that too deeply. I've never understood why any tax rate would be a disincentive to do well. Even if the tax rate was 90%, doing well is doing well. If I make more money, I get to keep more money, even if taxes are high. If we have tax br…

Say you’re a freelancer and could do one more project but the marginal tax rate is going to be 90%, vs. being maybe ~50% on the previous project you did. So now you’d be doing the same work for 1/5th of the income. Wouldn’t you consider saying “screw this, I’m going on a vacation?”

Re: Dow plunges 1000 points

#299

Post by eli_gottlieb »

sokoloff wrote: post #252
mtanski wrote: post #218

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>If salaries rise, the expectation is that people will spend more and push inflation higher. Sure sucks to be a worker. When your salary rises your real gains will be inflated away.

I think of money as a claim check on labor (and to a lesser extent, other resources). If everyone's income rises by 5% (and most of most people's income is spent rather than saved), I would expect prices to rise by about 5% and find that entirely logical.

>If everyone's income rises by 5% (and most of most people's income is spent rather than saved), I would expect prices to rise by about 5% and find that entirely logical.

Generally everyone's income would be rising 5% either from inflation, which amounts to a transfer from creditors to debtors, or from growth, in which case the total basket of goods and services available has grown 5% and there's no need for prices to go up.

Re: Dow plunges 1000 points

#300

Post by sanderjd »

cmontella wrote: post #281
sanderjd wrote: post #228

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It seems pretty straightforward: they likely aren't in favor of those policies either.

Who is "they" exactly? The party that spent the past 8 years talking about how deficits and spending are going to destroy the country are currently running things... and looking to increase deficits and spending. Self labeled "fiscal conservatives" just voted for a $1.5T unfunded tax cut, banking on essentially fairy dust (trickle down economic voodoo) to save the budget.

I was just talking about the commenter you replied to (gonational).
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