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Dow plunges 1000 points

cnbc.com

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Re: Dow plunges 1000 points

#261

Post by zaroth »

JKCalhoun wrote: post #40
valuearb wrote: post #14

I hate to be nitpicking about good news, but the S&P 500 is down less than 7% from it's peak, that's hardly a crash. Especially after gaining 26% over the previous year. And, after increasing over 90% the last 5 years. Obviously, either way a decline in the stock market indexes is good news for almost everyone. I'm hoping for a real crash as I need to save lots more money, not just for my retirement but also for my k…

Not a crash, but the gains of January have just been wiped out in the few days of February trading.

It is the nature of the stock market to make money slowly and take some of it back quickly.

It corrects, retrenches, and in time, exceeds its prior high.

Not trying to time the market is boring, and doesn’t sell clicks. But not trying to time the market is the only strategy guaranteed to win, unless an asteroid hits the planet, in which you don’t care about your USD anyway.

Re: Dow plunges 1000 points

#262

Post by exolymph »

JKCalhoun wrote: post #40
valuearb wrote: post #14

I hate to be nitpicking about good news, but the S&P 500 is down less than 7% from it's peak, that's hardly a crash. Especially after gaining 26% over the previous year. And, after increasing over 90% the last 5 years. Obviously, either way a decline in the stock market indexes is good news for almost everyone. I'm hoping for a real crash as I need to save lots more money, not just for my retirement but also for my k…

Not a crash, but the gains of January have just been wiped out in the few days of February trading.

If you're a normal person, not a day-trader, the time horizon your investments should be on the order of years, not months. If you're a day-trader, then this is just one of the risks of that choice.

Re: Dow plunges 1000 points

#263

Post by satellitec4t »

propman wrote: post #213
dcosson wrote: post #158

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Didn't the top income tax rate decrease by something like 2.5%? Doesn't seem like a lot of room for it to have decreased but still be "significantly higher" than it ended up at.

The top rate before was 39.6% for over 480k, over 480k now hits the 35% and 37% mark and that is a HUGE difference. Let's only consider how that effects the top 1% and a rough estimate. Currently that's around 1.73M filers with an average income of 1.4M a year. Under the new tax rules the average 1% will save $40,000 over 480k (will obviously save more under 480k but not counting that). That totals out to be $692B in…

Just kind of laughing at the idea of people making $1.4M having a tax "burden" like it's weighing them down.

Re: Dow plunges 1000 points

#264

Post by purplezooey »

propman wrote: post #102

Inflation finally is going up after years and we can get out of this stagnating economy. Wage growth up 3% in new January report and so we can finally expect interest rates to rise faster like they did in the past. Many investors, especially institutional ones have for years thought the stock market has been over priced but where else to park money because interest rates are too low? Overall the 3% wage growth is hug…

Future generations will have to pay for the deficit in SS and Medicare shortfalls, so voters today don't care.

Re: Dow plunges 1000 points

#266

Post by quickthrower2 »

BoiledCabbage wrote: post #48
sabujp wrote: post #35

anyone watching daily technicals would have seen the RSI and MACD dropping last week, this should not be a surprise to anyone but noobs

And how many times have RSI and MACD droped and market not collapsed? You get zero credit for predicting a drop after it happened. And also little credit for "predicting" something based on any indicator with frequent false positives. Saying "I knew it" because one of 50 indicators showed something the day before is no different than what's happening in non-reproducability of research. State claims and indicators bef…

To be fair, he said "not a surprise" rather than "predictable with 100% certainty". However you can't trade on not being surprised, you have to take a position.

Re: Dow plunges 1000 points

#267

Post by richardknop »

ajmurmann wrote: post #244
propman wrote: post #102

Inflation finally is going up after years and we can get out of this stagnating economy. Wage growth up 3% in new January report and so we can finally expect interest rates to rise faster like they did in the past. Many investors, especially institutional ones have for years thought the stock market has been over priced but where else to park money because interest rates are too low? Overall the 3% wage growth is hug…

Trying to find a correlation between how the actual economy is doing and the current president is in my opinion a foolish endeavor. It takes way too long for a policy change to actually impact the economy and on top of that it's pretty much impossible to isolate the cause of the economic change. How the market reacts in the short term is even less relevant since it really only says how a certain group of people likes…

> Every time a president claims economic growth to be because of them they reveal themselves to either be a liar or a fool.

Every president claims credit if economy is doing well. Same for Obama, Bush and Clinton. All were claiming credit for their periods of solid economy. That's just what you do as politician, take credit for good things and try to blame somebody else for bad things. Part of the political profession.

Re: Dow plunges 1000 points

#268

Post by ajmurmann »

richardknop wrote: post #267
ajmurmann wrote: post #244

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Trying to find a correlation between how the actual economy is doing and the current president is in my opinion a foolish endeavor. It takes way too long for a policy change to actually impact the economy and on top of that it's pretty much impossible to isolate the cause of the economic change. How the market reacts in the short term is even less relevant since it really only says how a certain group of people likes…

> Every time a president claims economic growth to be because of them they reveal themselves to either be a liar or a fool. Every president claims credit if economy is doing well. Same for Obama, Bush and Clinton. All were claiming credit for their periods of solid economy. That's just what you do as politician, take credit for good things and try to blame somebody else for bad things. Part of the political professio…

Yes and I see them all as liars.

Re: Dow plunges 1000 points

#269

Post by pfarnsworth »

longerthoughts wrote: post #186

To put things in perspective: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_daily_changes_... Saying "Biggest Point Drop in History" is a deliberate attention-grabber and incites more fear than it probably should. We should be more concerned with percentage changes and at -4.6% this doesn't even make the top 20 daily percentage drops, which cuts off at -6.98% for number 20 (see above link).

The only ones that matter are the ones that occur after roughly 1995. Most people weren't in mutual funds or stocks the way they are today. When the stock market dropped 50% in 2008/2009, so many people in retirement age were ruined because their retirement money was in the markets. A greater number of people's financial health is based on the stock market in 2018 than it ever did in the 1930s or 40s. In 1987, when the markets crashed 25%, it was interesting and scary, but if that happens today, millions of Americans need to push back their retirement by a dozen years. It's much more meaningful today because so many more people are affected by it.

One of the great feats of social engineering that Wall Street has done in the several decades is convincing regular people that they should have their money in the stock market. That lets them make billions of dollars "taking care of" their money without any personal risk themselves.

Re: Dow plunges 1000 points

#270

Post by kaycebasques »

wrs wrote: post #250
longerthoughts wrote: post #186

To put things in perspective: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_daily_changes_... Saying "Biggest Point Drop in History" is a deliberate attention-grabber and incites more fear than it probably should. We should be more concerned with percentage changes and at -4.6% this doesn't even make the top 20 daily percentage drops, which cuts off at -6.98% for number 20 (see above link).

As an index bizarrely weighted by price per share and a somewhat arbitrary divisor, the DJIA isn't what you'd choose to report on in the first place if you cared about anything but sentiment.

It's also a small basket of 30 US companies. A lot of big, important companies across different industries, sure. But it's just another aspect to consider.
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