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Dow plunges 1000 points

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Re: Dow plunges 1000 points

#162

I hate to be nitpicking about good news, but the S&P 500 is down less than 7% from it's peak, that's hardly a crash. Especially after gaining 26% over the previous year. And, after increasing over 90% the last 5 years. Obviously, either way a decline in the stock market indexes is good news for almost everyone. I'm hoping for a real crash as I need to save lots more money, not just for my retirement but also for my k…

That's great! I hope you feel good profiting off the market crashes that affect millions of people.

Re: Dow plunges 1000 points

#165
post #137

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I highly doubt the halt will be very temporary. SVXY and XIV are undergoing forced unwinds after-hours and will very likely be terminated. XIV in particular terminates at an 80% position loss, per its prospectus.

Credit Suisse is not obligated too, but it's likely they will.

Even if it's all by the contract, one would suppose an issuer would think very hard before doing that. It could taint their brand, their other leveraged ETFs, or even bring down more regulations.

Re: Dow plunges 1000 points

#166
post #35

anyone watching daily technicals would have seen the RSI and MACD dropping last week, this should not be a surprise to anyone but noobs

And how many times have RSI and MACD droped and market not collapsed? You get zero credit for predicting a drop after it happened. And also little credit for "predicting" something based on any indicator with frequent false positives. Saying "I knew it" because one of 50 indicators showed something the day before is no different than what's happening in non-reproducability of research. State claims and indicators bef…

I on the other hand bought cheap out of the money puts three weeks ago with a march 16 expiration. I took credit for them today.

Re: Dow plunges 1000 points

#167

Unprecedented growth leads to unprecedented correction. This is profit booking but huge players. The market will stabilize and start rising again. The fundamentals are still strong

Have you looked at the extreme bubble valuations that are essentially everywhere in the market? The fundamentals are horrific. 2.x% GDP growth stacked against peak PE ratios like ~40 by Coca Cola (KO), with zero (or negative) growth for years. Who are the crazy investors paying that? The US and global economy can't expand fast enough to pull down these multiples in a reasonable amount of time. 50 times earnings for P…

But where do you put your money in a time like this?

Re: Dow plunges 1000 points

#168

I hate to be nitpicking about good news, but the S&P 500 is down less than 7% from it's peak, that's hardly a crash. Especially after gaining 26% over the previous year. And, after increasing over 90% the last 5 years. Obviously, either way a decline in the stock market indexes is good news for almost everyone. I'm hoping for a real crash as I need to save lots more money, not just for my retirement but also for my k…

> Obviously, either way a decline in the stock market indexes is good news for almost everyone. I'm hoping for a real crash as I need to save lots more money, not just for my retirement but also for my kids college. Could you elaborate?

The meaning is to Buy when the market dips, and sell when the market goes up.

Re: Dow plunges 1000 points

#169

Let's say you're a smart investor, and you think a big crash is coming. Right now everything you have is in stocks. What do you move it to to hedge your risk?\\ Edit: To clarify, I don't have everything in stocks. I'm just looking for good advice on how to further diversify. I'm aware that timing the market is a fool's errand. :)

A broad market ETF. Over time, it's nearly impossible to beat a diversified index fund with any other strategy. Market timing is bad for your money and your sanity.

It's really not that hard to beat a broad market ETF... for example, the SP500 could easily outperform a total market index.

Re: Dow plunges 1000 points

#170
post #121

Earlier quoted context omitted.

On some level, though, all of retirement is a little ponzi-like; ultimately you're always relying on the current working population to pay for your retirement, no matter what investments you put into your pension fund. Well, no, not really. You're relying on the fact that you own some assets, which you can sell to someone else who wants to own those assets. That's very much not "ponzi-like".

You can't eat an asset. You can only eat what someone else produces, and then only if you can convince them to give you food in exchange for your asset. This is counterintuitive, but globally saving is not possible, in a financial sense. IIRC from economic models it nets out to investment. Which makes sense. Real world saving is amassing a grain store, or an oil stockpile in a strategic reserve, etc And we can't do v…

Yup. One area where this gets particularly interesting is healthcare - older people consume quite a lot of it, it's highly skilled and hasn't been particularly amenable to automation, it can't be stockpiled at all, and healthcare investment mostly seems to increase the amount people consume and the price of it.

Of course, generally you wouldn't exchange your assets directly for food or healthcare; more likely you'd have stocks and bonds and make money from some combination of selling on to non-retirees and taking some of the profits when they buy things from those companies, but it's ultimately what you're doing in the end.

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