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Dow plunges 1000 points

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Re: Dow plunges 1000 points

#121
post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's also apparently something interesting happening with the bond market. A fairly standard retirement strategy is to gradually move your investments into more stable bonds as your retirement date approaches. Except that because of boomer retirement, there's quite a lot of people doing this - mix in some quantitative easing, and suddenly a lot of money is chasing a limited pool of bonds, causing low yields and ot…

On some level, though, all of retirement is a little ponzi-like; ultimately you're always relying on the current working population to pay for your retirement, no matter what investments you put into your pension fund. Well, no, not really. You're relying on the fact that you own some assets, which you can sell to someone else who wants to own those assets. That's very much not "ponzi-like".

You can't eat an asset. You can only eat what someone else produces, and then only if you can convince them to give you food in exchange for your asset.

This is counterintuitive, but globally saving is not possible, in a financial sense. IIRC from economic models it nets out to investment.

Which makes sense. Real world saving is amassing a grain store, or an oil stockpile in a strategic reserve, etc

And we can't do very much of that. Monetary savings depends on the ability to buy things of value from a later generation of producers.

A small country can use savings to buy from other countries. The larger the country, the less possible that is, as the large country becomes a significant portion of the world economy.

A simpler way of looking at it is: if the future generation started producing half as much, you wouldn't expect monetary savings to command the same worth in terms of real goods that they used to.

Re: Dow plunges 1000 points

#122

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Stock market is way overvalued. Prepare for a crash.

I'd be interested to see the value of the stock market compared to interest rates. My bet is the market is only a little bit high if you account for how low interest rates have been for the past ~10 years.

Did you mean inflation rates? Because the interest rates control the cost of new money, while inflation reflects the change in value.

Re: Dow plunges 1000 points

#123

Unprecedented growth leads to unprecedented correction. This is profit booking but huge players. The market will stabilize and start rising again. The fundamentals are still strong

Last time I heard a lot of people saying "the fundamentals of our economy are still strong" was fall 2008. They are not bad, but you need to recall that the nominal full employment comes with far less financial security than in previous cycles as much of it is in part-time jobs, the gig economy etc., and demand is thus considerably more elastic than in an economy dominated by full-time jobs.

Re: Dow plunges 1000 points

#124
post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You don't want to buy your groceries when they're not on sale.

because that would be stealing? :p Seriously though, I think this is a bad analogy. I buy groceries when I need groceries, sales have little bearing on that. A car however, that is something that wait for a deal before I buy.

For groceries that don't keep, you are obliged to buy when you need them, although because humans are omnivores you _can_ choose to eat steak only when steak is cheap or eat raspberries only when raspberries are cheap and save quite a bit that way.

However most peoples' grocery shopping includes staples that have a relatively long shelf life if stored sensibly. Those who aren't dirt poor can and should purchase larger volumes of these products at lower prices if they know lower prices are not always available.

This is one of many ways that being poor is expensive, your financial status makes it impossible to invest up front on bulk items that would be cheaper over the medium term.

Re: Dow plunges 1000 points

#126
post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This probably spiked the VIX The fear index went up like crazy

Was 35 I think. They temporary halted inverse derivatives like SVXY.

I highly doubt the halt will be very temporary. SVXY and XIV are undergoing forced unwinds after-hours and will very likely be terminated. XIV in particular terminates at an 80% position loss, per its prospectus.

Re: Dow plunges 1000 points

#127
Let's say you're a smart investor, and you think a big crash is coming. Right now everything you have is in stocks.

What do you move it to to hedge your risk?\\

Edit: To clarify, I don't have everything in stocks. I'm just looking for good advice on how to further diversify. I'm aware that timing the market is a fool's errand. :)

Re: Dow plunges 1000 points

#129

Let's say you're a smart investor, and you think a big crash is coming. Right now everything you have is in stocks. What do you move it to to hedge your risk?\\ Edit: To clarify, I don't have everything in stocks. I'm just looking for good advice on how to further diversify. I'm aware that timing the market is a fool's errand. :)

If you think a big crash is coming, you basically want to avoid high-volatility assets, right? So IIUC, you'd just want to move into lower-volatility assets: bonds, money-market funds, or TIPS if you want inflation protection.

Re: Dow plunges 1000 points

#130

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Seems unnecessarily reckless to put almost all of your net worth into a single stock.

Berkshire has more than 100 subsidaries and a massive stock portfolio. I understand it fairly well, and it doesn't have any significant risks, other than Buffett dying. And if the price tanks when he dies, I'll use that as an opportunity to buy more. Because I have a good grasp of what it's actual intrinsic value is, I can wait to buy more until it's cheap which increases my long term returns. That's much harder to d…

The question is to what degree fickle investors will return without the perceived Buffett magic.
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