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Venice without water

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Re: Venice without water

#91

Post by ravitation »

dredmorbius wrote: post #80
CydeWeys wrote: post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"It's such a popular tourist spot, no one goes there anymore." (Apologies to Yogi Berra.) Tourism-based economies can't fail from becoming too profitable. If prices are high, it's only because people are still willing to pay them. It's market forces in action.

Just giving that a cursory thinking through, I can see several ways in which that might fail. "Real-estate-based economies can't fail from becoming too profitable. If prices and rents are high, it's only because people are still willing to pay them. It's market forces in action." Or, perhaps, it's rents-extraction, money-laundering, signs of even worse collapse elsewhere, and killing the underlying fundamentals of th…

None of those are examples of the real estate economy failing though... Let alone failing because it became too profitable. And even if they were, you're pushing the definition of a profitable real estate economy in the first place.

Re: Venice without water

#92

Post by ravitation »

dredmorbius wrote: post #90
CydeWeys wrote: post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Niagara Falls is doing just fine though? Can you think of examples of tourism destinations that failed because too many people went there? It seems tautologically impossible to me. Yes, the character of them may change, and they may go more upmarket, but I can't see them completely collapsing from getting too successful. The much more worn path is tourism spots failing from lack of visitors. You see that at the older…

I asked because examples didn't immediately occur to me, though this isn't a topic with which I'm particularly conversant. Acapulco, Mexico, is a former tourist mecca that's been transformed, though, as with a few other examples I can think of, largely through violence (here: drugs wars). Niagra Falls remains a tourist destination, but not of a scope that it once was. There are several other destinations I could thin…

Niagara Falls has seen steady growth in terms of tourism revenue and annual visitors for at least close to 30 years (that's as far back as I could find)... And current revenue numbers are (obviously) all time records... So... I'm not really sure what you're talking about.

Re: Venice without water

#93

Post by dredmorbius »

ravitation wrote: post #91
dredmorbius wrote: post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Just giving that a cursory thinking through, I can see several ways in which that might fail. "Real-estate-based economies can't fail from becoming too profitable. If prices and rents are high, it's only because people are still willing to pay them. It's market forces in action." Or, perhaps, it's rents-extraction, money-laundering, signs of even worse collapse elsewhere, and killing the underlying fundamentals of th…

None of those are examples of the real estate economy failing though... Let alone failing because it became too profitable. And even if they were, you're pushing the definition of a profitable real estate economy in the first place.

The rents-extraction can lead to failures by crowding out entrepreneurial activity. Take a look at what's brewing in the San Francisco Bay Area presently.

(Or Seattle, NYC, Vancouver, London, etc.)

It's not hit a precipitating point, yet ... but if you look at the formation of the tech industry in Los Angeles (aerospace and RAND especially post WWII) and Sunnyvale (1950s, 1960s), a large appeal was space and cost, as compared with East Coast centres, especially NYC and Boston.

Re: Venice without water

#94

Post by dredmorbius »

ravitation wrote: post #92
dredmorbius wrote: post #90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I asked because examples didn't immediately occur to me, though this isn't a topic with which I'm particularly conversant. Acapulco, Mexico, is a former tourist mecca that's been transformed, though, as with a few other examples I can think of, largely through violence (here: drugs wars). Niagra Falls remains a tourist destination, but not of a scope that it once was. There are several other destinations I could thin…

Niagara Falls has seen steady growth in terms of tourism revenue and annual visitors for at least close to 30 years (that's as far back as I could find)... And current revenue numbers are (obviously) all time records... So... I'm not really sure what you're talking about.

Measures of social significance of Niagara Falls as a destination of significance.

Or: who is vacationing to N.F.? Is it Wall Street bankers, or working-class types from Cleveland?

I'd also strongly suggest not getting too fixated on that one instance. I'm suggesting it as I suspect it might fit, but not because I'm positive of that. Question is if there are any instances along the lines I'd sketched out above.

I'm looking through what tourist destinations (or ventures) have failed. One additional dynamic: if the money's high, then net of financing a fall in the market can be catastrophic due to the loan-service nut that must be covered. It's not viable to drop the price, as that would fail to meet debt obligations. The search here turns up several examples of this.

https://duckduckgo.com/?q=failed+tourist+destination&ia=news

Re: Venice without water

#95

Post by ravitation »

dredmorbius wrote: post #94
ravitation wrote: post #92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Niagara Falls has seen steady growth in terms of tourism revenue and annual visitors for at least close to 30 years (that's as far back as I could find)... And current revenue numbers are (obviously) all time records... So... I'm not really sure what you're talking about.

Measures of social significance of Niagara Falls as a destination of significance. Or: who is vacationing to N.F.? Is it Wall Street bankers, or working-class types from Cleveland? I'd also strongly suggest not getting too fixated on that one instance. I'm suggesting it as I suspect it might fit, but not because I'm positive of that. Question is if there are any instances along the lines I'd sketched out above. I'm l…

I mean... If the original developer can't consistently meet debt obligations, then the development goes into foreclosure, and then a new developer lowers the price...

Regardless... I still don't see a good example of a tourist destination failing while also seemingly being profitable... Niagara Falls isn't even an example of a failed tourist destination.

Re: Venice without water

#96

Post by ravitation »

dredmorbius wrote: post #93
ravitation wrote: post #91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

None of those are examples of the real estate economy failing though... Let alone failing because it became too profitable. And even if they were, you're pushing the definition of a profitable real estate economy in the first place.

The rents-extraction can lead to failures by crowding out entrepreneurial activity. Take a look at what's brewing in the San Francisco Bay Area presently. (Or Seattle, NYC, Vancouver, London, etc.) It's not hit a precipitating point, yet ... but if you look at the formation of the tech industry in Los Angeles (aerospace and RAND especially post WWII) and Sunnyvale (1950s, 1960s), a large appeal was space and cost, as…

The San Francisco Bay Are real estate market hasn't failed... You can't use its hypothetical future failure as an example... The formation of new technical hubs is not a good indicator that the real estate market is failing or will fail.
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