US Electric Car Sales Report • Hacker News Board

Re: US Electric Car Sales Report

#31

Post by Feniks » Sun, Feb 04, 2018, 10:31 PM UTC

klondike_ wrote: post #25

I don't think electric car manufacturers are considering the huge amount of the US population that lives in the Midwest/Northeast part of the country. In the winter the decreased battery life (especially when running the heater) could be a deal breaker for many people. Also, most electric cars being manufactured are compacts, which would do a poor job of handling snowy roads even considering the increased torque of a…

America is a tough nut to crack. People like BIG cars, the roads are kinda crappy, fuel prices are lower than in Europe or Japan and travel distances are long.

I wouldn't want to drive a Nissan Leaf in rural Maine.

Re: US Electric Car Sales Report

#32

Post by freehunter » Sun, Feb 04, 2018, 10:36 PM UTC

tomhschmidt wrote: post #26

klondike_ wrote: post #25

I don't think electric car manufacturers are considering the huge amount of the US population that lives in the Midwest/Northeast part of the country. In the winter the decreased battery life (especially when running the heater) could be a deal breaker for many people. Also, most electric cars being manufactured are compacts, which would do a poor job of handling snowy roads even considering the increased torque of a…

https://electrek.co/2017/12/19/tesla-breaks-new-records-norw...

Norway and the US aren't directly comparable like that, though. For one, the kilometers traveled per capital for Norway is about half of the kilometers traveled per capita in the US.

It's really hard to say "Norway is cold, Minnesota is cold, they're basically the same place!".

Re: US Electric Car Sales Report

#33

Post by dbcurtis » Sun, Feb 04, 2018, 10:37 PM UTC

dmode wrote: post #18

themistocle wrote: post #2

The only people I know who have an electric car own or have pre-ordered Teslas. They are all status symbols. I don’t know anyone who needs an electric car. Maybe the problem is just as much lack of demand as it is lack of big auto commitment?

I have an electric car and I know many people have electric cars. Each have their own motivations, for some people it is to save on gas. Others for carpool access, while still others are for environmental reasons. I doubt Nissan Leaf is a great status symbol

For sure. I see a lot of leafs around town and around the neighborhood. Its an unapologetic econobox. No problem with that. If I had to drive 101 upstream everyday, I'd go get a cheap used leaf in a heartbeat.

A friend had a Bolt and likes it a lot. Of course lots of Teslas around, too. Tesla has range, and is stylish. Bolt has range. Leaf goes from point A to B for a modest subset of points.

Re: US Electric Car Sales Report

#34

Post by freehunter » Sun, Feb 04, 2018, 10:38 PM UTC

mikeash wrote: post #12

themistocle wrote: post #2

The only people I know who have an electric car own or have pre-ordered Teslas. They are all status symbols. I don’t know anyone who needs an electric car. Maybe the problem is just as much lack of demand as it is lack of big auto commitment?

Most cars beyond the bare-bones econoboxes aren’t about needs . Nobody needs an electric car, but they can be really nice to own in various ways.

I agree. If you're buying anything more expensive than the $13k Nissan Versa, you're buying features you don't need. So saying people don't need an electric car so there's no point in buying them is kind of a silly statement.

Re: US Electric Car Sales Report

#35

Post by Spooky23 » Sun, Feb 04, 2018, 10:40 PM UTC

imglorp wrote: post #6

> large automakers aren’t even trying Despite the Bolt being MT car of the year in 2017, I found it very hard to get a test drive. Some local Chevy dealers pretended not to know about it, which is ludicrous: their business, and maybe their only value as middleman, is to know every vehicle in the catalog forward and backward and then to leap to get me what I ask for. When I pointed out they were sitting on MTCOY the r…

The problem is more about customers and their habits. Cars are more expensive and people make less money.

The business model for selling new cars is about leases and long loans — most new car loans are 60 months or longer. The increased capital cost of an EV is a barrier for the people selling the car, as consumers give zero shits about TCO.

There are also many many segments where EV are a bad idea. People who rent, people who live in cold places, people who travel for road trips. It’s a complex sale, and the people can do the math to figure out the TCO can also figure out that a Honda Accord has a lower TCO with less risk. Even the Tesla risk factor is high — the car may last 10 years, but the company has a significant chance of being gone.

Re: US Electric Car Sales Report

#36

Post by photojosh » Sun, Feb 04, 2018, 10:42 PM UTC

imglorp wrote: post #8

themistocle wrote: post #2

The only people I know who have an electric car own or have pre-ordered Teslas. They are all status symbols. I don’t know anyone who needs an electric car. Maybe the problem is just as much lack of demand as it is lack of big auto commitment?

I came very close to a Bolt for these reasons. My local power generator offered a $75 discount on the charger, plus free charging for the car on weekends. That's enormous: I could charge on weekends and drive 238 miles for free during the week. As a local commute or grocery getter, it's hard to beat free miles.

> free charging for the car on weekends

Interesting. Made me think of how now in Australia we have so much solar installed that wholesale electric spot pricing can go $10k+/MWh negative during some parts of the day. Wondering if one day they'll be willing to pay consumer electric sinks... EV charging is perfect.

Re: US Electric Car Sales Report

#37

Post by Avshalom » Sun, Feb 04, 2018, 10:46 PM UTC

tomhschmidt wrote: post #26

klondike_ wrote: post #25

I don't think electric car manufacturers are considering the huge amount of the US population that lives in the Midwest/Northeast part of the country. In the winter the decreased battery life (especially when running the heater) could be a deal breaker for many people. Also, most electric cars being manufactured are compacts, which would do a poor job of handling snowy roads even considering the increased torque of a…

https://electrek.co/2017/12/19/tesla-breaks-new-records-norw...

Minnesota has as many people as Norway and is colder. Outside of the inland north Norway isn't actually very cold.

on a general note:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hardiness_zone#/media/File:201...

http://www.plantmaps.com/interactive-norway-plant-hardiness-...

Re: US Electric Car Sales Report

#38

Post by Parcissons » Sun, Feb 04, 2018, 10:53 PM UTC

Im no longer so sure, that battery driven electric cars are the future. Electric cars are- but i would bet right now on fuel cells. They have all the bons- less energy conversion steps (methan, ethanol or hydrogen beeing used), a better conversion rate and energy density. Actually thats the one thing i dont get- why nobody places a fuel cell bet on the scale tesla does with the giga factory.

Re: US Electric Car Sales Report

#39

Post by imglorp » Sun, Feb 04, 2018, 11:01 PM UTC

Spooky23 wrote: post #35

imglorp wrote: post #6

> large automakers aren’t even trying Despite the Bolt being MT car of the year in 2017, I found it very hard to get a test drive. Some local Chevy dealers pretended not to know about it, which is ludicrous: their business, and maybe their only value as middleman, is to know every vehicle in the catalog forward and backward and then to leap to get me what I ask for. When I pointed out they were sitting on MTCOY the r…

The problem is more about customers and their habits. Cars are more expensive and people make less money. The business model for selling new cars is about leases and long loans — most new car loans are 60 months or longer. The increased capital cost of an EV is a barrier for the people selling the car, as consumers give zero shits about TCO. There are also many many segments where EV are a bad idea. People who rent,…

Of course, there's a specific use case for the EV. The same dealer also had $76,000 Corvettes on the floor: like the EV they're maybe costing more and offer less utility. The Bolt cost around $37k--maybe 30 while the incentive lasts--and seats four plus cargo in the hatchback so it's maybe bigger than an Accord for a similar price.

Re: US Electric Car Sales Report

#40

Post by ggm » Sun, Feb 04, 2018, 11:55 PM UTC

rgbrenner wrote: post #5

Just a reminder-- there were 1.15M light vehicle sales in the US last month[0]. The total for all of these EV cars put together is a drop in the bucket.. 12000/1.15M = 1%. So if big auto has a problem, they have a lot of time to figure it out. 0. http://www.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3022-autosales.html Edit: Corrected.. thanks to sremani for pointing out the error.

I'm coming at this from another domain, measuring IPv6 uptake. I've been doing this for over 10 years now. The initial demand curve, was severely depressing. It was painful to watch technology sitting at 1% growth. The thing is, that in a logistic supply curve, the moment of change when something where the best-fit is linear, and it goes into its exponential phase, its completely unpredictable. You can stab at it, but its really best defined in arrears, after the fact.

So we're on 1% of monthly sales against ICE? We might still be on 1% in 3 months time, or 6. But the progression from 1% to 5% to 16% to 40% will be interesting. It might not happen that way, but in other domains, the uptake curve is abrupt.

(and it doesn't have to reach 100%, there is no must here, and its not a physical law bound thing either: its a supply curve, a logistic curve.)