Things are going so well we’re doing a hiring freeze • Hacker News Board

Re: Things are going so well we’re doing a hiring freeze

#91

Post by tinymollusk » Fri, Feb 02, 2018, 5:23 PM UTC

crdoconnor wrote: post #88

tinymollusk wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is because the portfolio strategy (1 hypergrowth + 20 failures) is the best strategy from the VC perspective. It's nearly impossible to know which startups will succeed (high uncertainty decision making), and very difficult to know how big the successful ones could be (open ended results). If it were simply as easy as building 17 solid startups to just 4 failures, I'm sure there would be more investment in that…

>This is because the portfolio strategy (1 hypergrowth + 20 failures) is the best strategy from the VC perspective. Duh? You say that as if it should be considered surprising. It would be surprising if it were an irrational preference, not a completely rational preference. The real question is why the economy is geared towards such an uneven distribution of returns. I don't think it's a law of nature (e.g. economies…

Can't it simply be explained by the mathematics of decision making under uncertainty in open and complex systems?

This is an interesting discussion; is it shapeable market forces (US tax and legal system) that creates these incentives, or is it something more inherent to trying to predict the outcome of a really complex problem?

It sounds like you believe it to be the former, whereas I believe it to be the latter.

Re: Things are going so well we’re doing a hiring freeze

#92

Post by crdoconnor » Sat, Feb 03, 2018, 8:02 PM UTC

tinymollusk wrote: post #91

crdoconnor wrote: post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>This is because the portfolio strategy (1 hypergrowth + 20 failures) is the best strategy from the VC perspective. Duh? You say that as if it should be considered surprising. It would be surprising if it were an irrational preference, not a completely rational preference. The real question is why the economy is geared towards such an uneven distribution of returns. I don't think it's a law of nature (e.g. economies…

Can't it simply be explained by the mathematics of decision making under uncertainty in open and complex systems? This is an interesting discussion; is it shapeable market forces (US tax and legal system) that creates these incentives, or is it something more inherent to trying to predict the outcome of a really complex problem? It sounds like you believe it to be the former, whereas I believe it to be the latter.

>Can't it simply be explained by the mathematics of decision making under uncertainty in open and complex systems?

Yes, my whole point is it is an inevitable outcome of the the confluence of immutable randomness, immutable human nature and the structure of our economy.

However, that doesn't mean that it's a fait accompli - the structure of our economy is mutable via law and taxes. That tax system and laws help discourage lots of competing Ubers and encourage one big monopoly Uber. The question you have to ask is - is that really the most desirable outcome?

>whereas I believe

Belief is for gospel preachers and anarcho-libertarians. It's not rational to apply it here.

Re: Things are going so well we’re doing a hiring freeze

#93

Post by dasil003 » Mon, Feb 05, 2018, 6:30 PM UTC

taw-an wrote: post #89

dasil003 wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How do the employees feel about it? I’d bet a lot of money they’re in the top 5% retention among tech companies. Also they’re probably pretty happy to avoid the constant churn and failed projects of working in a company desperately chasing hypergrowth. I imagine customers are pretty happy too knowing that they aren’t at risk of the company being flipped and the product discontinued or bloated in order to attract the…

how is it ironic? that was exactly my point.

It's ironic is because Basecamp is the anti-VC tech company. They have better work-life balance, more modest ambitions, and less buzzword-worthy tech than the prototypical SV company. Assuming this is about hoodwinking some of the best-treated employees in tech shows goes against everything they've been preaching for the last 15 years.