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Amazon Health

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Re: Amazon Health

#81
post #44

I think these 3 will no longer provide health insurance for their employees, they are going to create a new more affordable framework and they will allow any other large company to participate. The goal will be keep the cost of insurance the same for the employees, while eliminating the cost for the companies entirely, which is why this will take off. It’s crazy to have employers paying for healthcare, this I believe…

What is the mechanism? I don't think it is realistic to assume that health care can run on employee premiums alone. In fact we know it can't b/c individual premiums are outrageous. So I don't think your premise is realistic. These billion dollar companies self insure and Buffet's companies offer reinsurance for the most costly million dollar claims. Even though they self insure, they will pay a company like Cigna a p…

Premiums are so high because the insurance companies can get away with charging that much, especially when they’re charging a large company and the individual doesn’t even realize how high the premium actually is.

Similarly, costs are high because pharma and healthcare companies can charge that much. An insured patient, past a certain point, is price insensitive, since their insurance pays the bill. So why wouldn’t healthcare providers charge as much as possible? Raising price does not lower demand. The worst that happens is the insurance company disputes it, but that process is post-facto and there is no mechanism to punish providers for overcharging, so they have an incentive to “shoot first, ask questions later” when setting prices.

As an anecdote, I knew a guy who ran a “compounding pharmacy” business. Basically he mixed together multiple prescriptions into one or a few pills, for e.g. elderly people who would rather take one pill than twenty. When the insurance companies asked him to price each pill, they had no reference for how much it cost — each compound drug he made was effectively a “new drug.” The insurance companies asked him how much it cost and he was literally able to name his price.

Re: Amazon Health

#82
post #47
post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What is the mechanism? I don't think it is realistic to assume that health care can run on employee premiums alone. In fact we know it can't b/c individual premiums are outrageous. So I don't think your premise is realistic. These billion dollar companies self insure and Buffet's companies offer reinsurance for the most costly million dollar claims. Even though they self insure, they will pay a company like Cigna a p…

Premiums are as high as they are because health care is run as a for profit industry - health care in America is orders of magnitude more expensive than in other countries. If you remove the profit motive prices will drop down towards something more reasonable, in this situation it's not unreasonable to expect that the system could be maintained with employee premiums. The cost of initialisation of services will be h…

The US pharmaceutical industry is also one of the leading innovators and manufacturers of life saving drugs and medicine. The profit incentive, combined with 10 year intellectual property protection, is what allows pharmaceutical companies to spend enough on R&D to produce these drugs (which the rest of the world benefits from!)

Re: Amazon Health

#83
post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What is the mechanism? I don't think it is realistic to assume that health care can run on employee premiums alone. In fact we know it can't b/c individual premiums are outrageous. So I don't think your premise is realistic. These billion dollar companies self insure and Buffet's companies offer reinsurance for the most costly million dollar claims. Even though they self insure, they will pay a company like Cigna a p…

There are multiple ways to get insurance without dealing directly with traditional insurance companies.I'm not saying they're perfect, but then again, neither is the current for profit. Christian Health Ministries - http://www.chministries.org/ Medi-Share - https://mychristiancare.org/medi-share/ Kaiser Permanente - https://healthy.kaiserpermanente.org/ Taylor University is self-insured.

Many large companies will “self insure” by negotiating deals with insurance companies to isolate their risk pool to their own employees. Since employee demographics are relatively homogenous compared to the general population (younger and healthier generally), large companies can offer a “win/win” in partnership with insurance companies by capturing actuarial efficiency through more precise modeling of their risk pool.

Re: Amazon Health

#84
> insurance operates best at more scale, not less: first and foremost, the larger the pool, the more risk can be spread, as well as obvious efficiency gains in administration.

This may be true from the perspective of the insurance companies, but it does not mean that premiums will be lower with a larger risk pool. The global risk pool includes elderly and disabled people whose risk is paid for by healthy people. Smaller risk pools of more homogenous populations can result in lower overall premiums since they do not need to cover the highest risk individuals. For example, a corporation is comprised of employees almost entirely under retirement age, many age 20-30, and in relatively good health. This is why companies are able to offer HMO plans, because by isolating their risk pool they can more precisely model actuarial risk and thus save on premiums.

It’s not how large a risk pool is that determines premiums, but rather the distribution of risk within that risk pool.

Re: Amazon Health

#85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The traditional economic view is that private, profit seeking enterprises actually offer better prices to consumers because of competition, while monopoly firms charge higher prices bc they have more market power, and government run enterprises yield lower quality products because they don't have incentive to compete on quality. India has a very competitive healthcare system that is largely out of pocket and while th…

It's relatively easy to keep the costs low in Europe: you pay in queues and cheap health care instead of money. That doesn't mean good-or-bad automatically. E.g. giving birth by C-section is a rare event in Europe but it's very common in the US, making the "born" event very expensive on average in the US. You usually get over-testing in the US and under-testing in Europe. If you have a suspicious mole, or a woman rep…

The average cost for vaginal delivery is not all that much lower than for C-sections, especially if someone needs/wants epidural etc.. Last US data I looked at showed average costs were something like 20% apart. The lower use of C-sections in most European countries is because it is only done if medically indicated - it has risks. People can, however, and do, do it privately in most European countries, and it is most places substantially cheaper than doing a C-section in the US..

> If you have a suspicious mole, or a woman reports pain in the uterus, in Europe you might wait one or two years before a doctor sees you.

If we ever came across a situation like that, we'd scream bloody murder to the nearest national newspaper. Maybe it happens some places, but my experience with healthcare in European countries does not in any way reflect what you describe. I'm in the UK now, and when I want to see a doctor, my experience is that I have never needed to wait more than a couple of days - most cases I've gotten an appointment same day. It's what I expect. If my GP can't see me fast enough, I have a number of walk-in centres I can go to (caveat is 2-3 hour waits). Out of hours or for something more serious but not an emergency, I can go to the nearby hospitals out of hours service. If I freak out, A&E will never turn you away (though they might scold you if you show up with something that you should know better about). If I'm unsure, there's a non-emergency number where an nurse will triage and either get a doctor lined up or tell you to get yourself to A&E.

Basically, if I have a concern that I think merits immediate attention, it will get immediate attention.

On the occasions I've needed to see specialists or have tests one, I've gotten it done within a week or two.

Yes, there are queues for some services, and especially surgeries, but after you've been triaged by primary care.

If it was like what you suggested most places, you'd expect takeup of private health insurance to be much higher, yet e.g. in the UK it hovers around 10%, most of which are employers offering it as a benefit whether or not you care about it (e.g. I have private insurance now; it made absolutely no difference to my evaluation of my employment offer, same for my ex). It's offered because it is dirt cheap (because most of them cover "add-ons" like seeing a specialist faster, and rely on the public system for most routine stuff) and perceived as worth more than it actually is.

> This payment-by-queue drives costs down, but is obviously a bad thing.

Queues are there because you are triaged by doctors, and clinical needs rather than ability to pay is what determines who gets treated first.

While mistakes happen, overall the high life expectancy in most European countries show that it's for the most part working very well. E.g. 2015 WHO data shows a life expectancy for the UK about 2 years higher than the US - in total 21 European countries in 2015 data had higher life expectancy than the US, including all of West / North Europe. The ones falling behind are the poorer Eastern European countries.

I'm sure there's room for improvement, and I'm sure occasionally people die because they wait too long, but the life expectancy shows the priorities largely work.

Another point is that the lack of queues in the US to a large extent is fiction: The queues are not there because a lot of people can't afford to use healthcare more. Even with insurance, if you have large co-pays etc., it doesn't take much before you use healthcare services less than you should. What a system that is free at the point of service does is give a full picture of the actual demand and ability to actually make decisions of funding and prioritisation based on clinical need. You don't have that in the US system.

> Another side effect is that the top notch specialists in Europe earns about the same money as an average or a bad doctor working for the public health.

I don't now of any place in Europe other than possibly Norway where this would be the case unless they themselves don't care to earn more, as most places top doctors can easily mix and match public and private services, and often do. E.g. in the UK a lot of consultants will do private surgeries, and will do so in NHS hospitals, as NHS hospitals can rent out spare capacity (and some run their own private clinics), and can earn a lot extra that way.

Re: Amazon Health

#86
post #44

I think these 3 will no longer provide health insurance for their employees, they are going to create a new more affordable framework and they will allow any other large company to participate. The goal will be keep the cost of insurance the same for the employees, while eliminating the cost for the companies entirely, which is why this will take off. It’s crazy to have employers paying for healthcare, this I believe…

What is the mechanism? I don't think it is realistic to assume that health care can run on employee premiums alone. In fact we know it can't b/c individual premiums are outrageous. So I don't think your premise is realistic. These billion dollar companies self insure and Buffet's companies offer reinsurance for the most costly million dollar claims. Even though they self insure, they will pay a company like Cigna a p…

There are plenty of countries where healthcare is affordable and much more effective. The ridiculous prices in the US are due to the perversely corrupt incentives in healthcare, not because of any intrinsic costs.

Hospitals charge $500 for saline solutions - literally $1 bags of salt water. All so insurers can charge customers premiums based on those high prices and simultaneously ensure anyone without insurance is f*ed. Its a joke.

Re: Amazon Health

#87
post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why did Larry Lessig not find more support amongst the tech billionaire crowd? His open source policy programs on fixing US democracy ought to be a magnet for hobnobbing billionaires at the very top of Maslow's pyramid.

because tech billionaires don't give a shit if poor people die or go bankrupt from medical bills. They've likely never even had to think about it.

Sounds like Bezos might disagree.

The problem with US healthcare isn't profit seeking, it's that years of regulatory technical debt starting with the employer tax deduction totally broke the market and the incentives to control costs are shattered like most things our interests-captive government pays for anymore.

I for one am cheering on the capitalists trying to come and do an end run around this political mess. There's no reason healthcare can't be like buying anything else in a competitive market other than the legal complexity dealing with it and daunting capital required to over come that.

Re: Amazon Health

#88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If these companies get together and create a not for profit, how can for-profit providers even begin to negotiate with them. Also given the scale of these companies, wouldn't this raise healthcare costs for all others who don't work for one of them?

Many not for profit providers in the US are actually quite profitable, and insurance companies, even for profit ones, have regulations regarding their profit taking (they must pay out like 85% of premiums they receive to cover medical expenses). So while not having a profit mandate can certainly help Amazon / brk/ JPM, scale and negotiating leverage are probably bigger drivers Interesting point re increasing costs fo…

This cycle is one of big concern to me. In Pennsylvania, UPMC keeps growing its monopoly and getting into territory disputes with Highmark Health. In this case, both companies offer insurance and health care. At one point, UPMC decided to stop accepting Highmark health insurance, which is what the state government used as their health provider. State employees became effectively barred from using the near-monopoly healthcare provider for the Western half of the state. This has been going on for years, each year with variations of "consent decrees" where the two providers make concessions what facilities in underserved areas they will see other's clients in.

I've been watching this play out in my state for years, but never quite realized the full impact of this until a recent Guardian article mentioned UPMC by name as why single-payer/medicare-for-all could fail.

>Who would blink first if the government threatened to exclude UPMC from its healthcare plan, which under a “Medicare for All” system, would be the only one available? Without access to the UPMC system, the region would face an instant healthcare crisis.

As someone that watched a state government blink first and change insurance providers, this really drove the point home.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/oct/28/big-me...

Re: Amazon Health

#89
post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's relatively easy to keep the costs low in Europe: you pay in queues and cheap health care instead of money. That doesn't mean good-or-bad automatically. E.g. giving birth by C-section is a rare event in Europe but it's very common in the US, making the "born" event very expensive on average in the US. You usually get over-testing in the US and under-testing in Europe. If you have a suspicious mole, or a woman rep…

The average cost for vaginal delivery is not all that much lower than for C-sections, especially if someone needs/wants epidural etc.. Last US data I looked at showed average costs were something like 20% apart. The lower use of C-sections in most European countries is because it is only done if medically indicated - it has risks. People can, however, and do, do it privately in most European countries, and it is most…

>Maybe it happens some places

Esoteric or non-physical things, mostly. The NHS really sucks at trans issues, for example, where a two year waiting list is not unusual. It's one of the few areas that US healthcare sometimes does better in, where the state is one which permits informed consent care.

Re: Amazon Health

#90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The traditional economic view is that private, profit seeking enterprises actually offer better prices to consumers because of competition, while monopoly firms charge higher prices bc they have more market power, and government run enterprises yield lower quality products because they don't have incentive to compete on quality. India has a very competitive healthcare system that is largely out of pocket and while th…

It's relatively easy to keep the costs low in Europe: you pay in queues and cheap health care instead of money. That doesn't mean good-or-bad automatically. E.g. giving birth by C-section is a rare event in Europe but it's very common in the US, making the "born" event very expensive on average in the US. You usually get over-testing in the US and under-testing in Europe. If you have a suspicious mole, or a woman rep…

This is complete bullshit. In many European countries you get screenings for most common tumors (bowel, for women uterus and breast) for free depending on your age. Cancer treatment and chronic disease treatment is top notch and you get it for free (you pay it with taxes), like everything else. There is no such thing as "not being covered because treatment is expensive"---I had to reread that sentence twice because I thought you were talking about the US.

Life expectancy is higher in most of Europe than in the US, which would be pretty hard to achieve if people died because of "death panels" and waiting lists to see a specialist. Plus prevention is actually a thing.

Elective surgery has a waiting list that can be weeks or months, but this doesn't translate to everything else. If it takes months to get an NMR, probably it was the patient that insisted to get a useless one. If your GP marks an exam as urgent you can get it within a few days.

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