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My new favorite book of all time

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Re: My new favorite book of all time

#331

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The author covers that. (More details and argument for why he thinks that is in his book) https://stevenpinker.com/pages/frequently-asked-questions-ab... The explanation for the decline of violence in the second half of the 20th century is obvious: The bomb. The theory of the Nuclear Peace is evaluated in chapter 5, pp. 268–278. I think it’s unlikely. World War II proved that conventional warfare was already unthinka…

>The explanation for the decline of violence in the second half of the 20th century is obvious: The bomb. Sorry, but that sounds like a load of folk psychology. Leaded gasoline on the other hand, well, see here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lead-crime_hypothesis https://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Lead-crime_hypothesis (see especially this section: https://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Lead-crime_hypothesis#Evidence... , and the…

The violence in question is war, not crime.

Re: My new favorite book of all time

#332
post #310

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Entirely. The burden is placed upon the objector to have even a passing argument against the initially held position, otherwise you can raise infinite substance-less objections against an otherwise strong point and 'win'. This tactic is used in court and in point-based debate systems to game the system (in the first to drive up expenses, and in the second to score uncontested points). The bar doesn't need to be high,…

That's not how debate works. The initial burden of proof is on the person making the assertion, you're just shoving off your responsibility onto others. You complain about substance-less objections, but so far you've just made a substance-less assertion. It's hypocritical.

1) It isn't hypocritical to ask someone to articulate why they don't agree with an assertion.

2) No, that's NOT how the burden of proof works. The initial presumption is that the moving party is speaking truthfully, and objections are raised afterwards. If the objection has enough proof, then the initial party is under the burden to refute the defense. This is literally how our court systems work in civil cases.

The alternate assumption, that every element of every statement needs to be laid out for any statement to be found to be valuable means that every post here would start with a discussion of epistemology.

Edit: torstenvl's post is incorrect - in the initial stages of dispute resolution, in summary judgment and the phases where the claims are evaluated for importance (whether the originating document should be struck, etc.), the claims as drafted in a statement of claim are assumed to be true. This is why default judgment is accepted - because the pleas are accepted truthful. Pleas are also evaluated as if they are true in summary judgment and a number of other pre-trial levels. Once a defense is filed and objection is noted does the burden switch and the evidentiary examination begins. But that requires a defense, and a defense will be struck if it says nothing.

Fortunately, this procedure lines up fairly well with Bayesian inference and the principle of charity.

In any event, this meta discussion seems to have generated ill will and little understanding, so I'll let it rest where it lies.

Thanks for the spell-check! Common error of mine.

Re: My new favorite book of all time

#333
post #213

I've read a lot of the discussions regarding Pinker's work in both books (but particularly his position in Better Angels), and I've always found his position to be slightly disconcerting. Pinker attempts to make a specific argument, that violence has decreased over time. Violence is not a first order phenomenon at a social scale - it's presence is predicated upon the existence of other key criteria, largely the exist…

> I've read a lot of the discussions regarding Pinker's work in both books (but particularly his position in Better Angels), and I've always found his position to be slightly disconcerting.

I really think that this is one occasion where you should base your opinion on what an author has written rather than on what discussions the author's work has engendered.

> Pinker attempts to make a specific argument, that violence has decreased over time.

No. Pinker makes a specific argument (he does not attempt to make the argument) that contrary to popular opinion the world is not in fact going to hell in a handcart but rather the lot of the average person is improving over time when measuring social factors against times gone by. He takes a number of metrics and plots them over the course of centuries and millennia. What he is _attempting_ to do is convince us.

> Violence is not a first order phenomenon at a social scale - it's presence is predicated upon the existence of other key criteria, largely the existence of conflict within or between societies.

To be honest, I'm not sure that what you're saying makes sense sociologically speaking. And anyway, it's probably neither hear nor there for our purposes if violence is a first-order or second-order phenomenon (whatever that would mean) in the context of social systems. What matters is if we agree that certain types of violence are decent metrics for measuring the human condition over time. We could take suicide, state conflicts, civil unrest, incarceration rates, state torture, severity of punishment, and on and on. And in fact this is what Pinker does. And for practically every form of human-on-human misery you can think of the stats show that violence is decreasing. If you agree that this is a good proxy for the human condition then you then agree that society is getting 'better'.

> Better Angels indicates that violence has gone down, but does not sufficiently set out the basis to indicate that conflict is being better managed over time. If anything, it indicates that conflicts are being 'won' as the winners are increasingly able to ignore the plight of the losers.

? No. It does not indicate, it demonstrates that many many forms of violence have decreased. It does not show that "conflict is being better managed" over time (how would one measure that?) and it certainly does not need to use whatever that as a proxy for its main demonstration. That's your assertion, not Pinker's. It is up to you to convince us of that. (I am not convinced.) And even if you did it does not invalidate Pinker's claims!

> On the micro-scale, in law we've been faced with a tremendous crisis - that of Access to Justice. In short, the courts are simply too expensive for normal people to avail themselves of, outside specialty practices like family or traffic issues. The result being that the majority of people do not actually have the ability to enforce their legal rights. The response of most legal institutions has been to decry the issue, then do nothing substantive to solve it.

I agree with everything you say here (though you have no stats to back it up I do believe that it would be possible to demonstrate some of your assertions here) but the fact that it is increasingly difficult for the average person to enforce their rights is no counter-argument to the claims in Better Angels. You do realise that Pinker is talking about practices like being hung, drawn and quartered and being burnt at the stake and any number of unimaginable horrors which we no longer do, don't you?

> We can pretend things are getting better but absent thinking about what 'better' means maybe the lid on the boiling pot is just getting heavier faster than the heat is being turned up.

No. To make a claim is not to pretend. Pinker _has_ thought about how you can measure 'better'. The funny thing is, it actually seems like people want the world to be getting worse for some perverse reason. I cannot otherwise explain the ridiculous arguments (including by the likes of Taleb) against Better Angels.

Re: My new favorite book of all time

#334

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Finally, the Nuclear Peace theory can’t explain why non-nuclear powers have avoided war, too—why Canada and Spain, for example, never escalated their dispute over flatfish to a shooting war. Frankly, this looks to me like Pinker is reasoning from a provably false premise. Non-nuclear powers haven't avoided war. The Congo War killed ~4 million people, including 300,000+ via direct killings. The Yugoslav Wars killed…

> First, because the use of proxy wars is a defining feature of 20th century combat; war in Yugoslavia, Iraq, and Syria is directly linked to great-power conflict. Great powers have interests in every war ever, but when Yugoslavia broke up, the USSR and in 1999 Russia were too weak to be considered equal adversaries. In the early 90s the country fell apart and a tyrant started three wars ending in ethnic cleansing an…

Sorry, the conflation of Yugoslavia with "proxy war" was in error, you're totally correct.

The link to great power conflict I had in mind there was the pressure cooker effect of Tito's dictatorship, which suppressed the major conflicts of the region without solving them. But it's a rather different entity than wars with direct meddling, and I can't judge the counterfactual: would a lack of Communist dictatorship have caused an earlier and more peaceful dissolution, or simply hastened what happened anyway?

It's a bad example and I shouldn't have used it; thank you.

Re: My new favorite book of all time

#335
post #310

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Entirely. The burden is placed upon the objector to have even a passing argument against the initially held position, otherwise you can raise infinite substance-less objections against an otherwise strong point and 'win'. This tactic is used in court and in point-based debate systems to game the system (in the first to drive up expenses, and in the second to score uncontested points). The bar doesn't need to be high,…

ok. counterpoint: steven pinker, et. al. go!

Pinker does not argue that access to justice is increasing in Better Angels. He elaborates on the point of Rule of Law, which is related in concept but distinct.

There's a few weaknesses in his statements re: the Rule of Law, but that's outside of the scope of my critique.

Re: My new favorite book of all time

#336
post #310

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Entirely. The burden is placed upon the objector to have even a passing argument against the initially held position, otherwise you can raise infinite substance-less objections against an otherwise strong point and 'win'. This tactic is used in court and in point-based debate systems to game the system (in the first to drive up expenses, and in the second to score uncontested points). The bar doesn't need to be high,…

That's not how debate works. The initial burden of proof is on the person making the assertion, you're just shoving off your responsibility onto others. You complain about substance-less objections, but so far you've just made a substance-less assertion. It's hypocritical.

I'm not going to get into a tit-for-tat with ABCLAW, but for the edification of readers who might otherwise be inclined to believe the assertion in the sibling comment, it is NOT on the objector to provide evidence. The moving party bears the burden of proof.

Sometimes the initial burden of proof is merely prima facie evidence, after which the burden shifts. For example, in some states, a defendant in a murder case need only make a prima facie case that the killing was done in self-defense, after which the prosecution must prove beyond a reasonable doubt that it wasn't self-defense. But even in that case, the initial moving party bears the initial burden of proof.

Also, ABCLAW: it's spelled "judgment."

Re: My new favorite book of all time

#337
post #284

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I generally agree, but I'm a bit confused by your framing. Better Angels offers a range of causes for declining violence, and one of them is explicitly 'Leviathan' - the rise of state power pushing out all other forms of violence. His other forces are far more optimistic, but the "monopoly on force" argument is certainly not absent. Having said that, I agree that people discussing and interpreting Pinker's work (Pink…

Thanks for the response. My qualm is a bit more involved than just the centralization of force. It has to do with whether or not the causes of violence are decreasing, or whether or not we're observing a temporary reduction in the overt displays of violence while the causes are left to grow in the background. In chemical terms, have we created buffering conditions for violence equilibria? If so, what happens the mome…

Ah, then I think we agree.

My general take on Pinker's work is that to the extent that he's accurate, he's largely describing the impact of state power plus the benefits of prosperity.

When he asks why murder is now so rare, the answer is a combination of "because if you murder you go to jail reliably" and "if someone wrongs you you call on the state".

When he asks why Canada and Spain don't start a war over fishing rights, the answer is not "civilization and reason" but "because it would cost a million times what the fish are worth". Increased trade means most peaceful relationships are mutually beneficial, increased GDP per capita means that a life lost to violence is increasingly expensive in monetary terms, and the increasing mechanical capacity for war means that any small conflict can be easily escalated to a prohibitively expensive one.

All of which is to say that I think we've solved some violence with sheer wealth, some with fear of the state, and perhaps very little with our "better angels". That worries me, and I think Pinker does us all a disservice by conflating a decreasing appetite for violence with decreasing use of violence. Leviathan is there in the book, but not so much in the public conception.

Re: My new favorite book of all time

#338
post #310

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are you serious? If you're making the assertion here, it's on you to support it. Don't try to put the burden on others to disprove something you've shown zero evidence for, that's ridiculous.

Entirely. The burden is placed upon the objector to have even a passing argument against the initially held position, otherwise you can raise infinite substance-less objections against an otherwise strong point and 'win'. This tactic is used in court and in point-based debate systems to game the system (in the first to drive up expenses, and in the second to score uncontested points). The bar doesn't need to be high,…

There is a Latin proverb, "Quod gratis asseritur, gratis negatur". Translated, this is "What is freely asserted is freely dismissed"; Hitchen paraphrased it as "What can be asserted without evidence can be dismissed without evidence".

Re: My new favorite book of all time

#339
post #246

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sure. From the plebeians of ancient Rome, through the French revolutionaries and American abolitionists and feminists of the 19th century, to the feminist suffragists[1] of the early 20th century. [1]: One of the things I always find hilarious is the constant refrain among conservatives is "well, the old generation was right but this one has gone too far!" despite the constant decline in the fervor of feminist activi…

It's not just conservatives saying that, it is also people who have been feminists their whole lives: https://areomagazine.com/2016/12/29/why-i-no-longer-identify... https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/am-i-a-bad-feminist/...

Yep, for centuries (millennia, actually) the pattern is the same. A social change movement is invariably viewed as having "gone too far", but in order to be perceived as reasonable, the critics invariably say that the previous generation was right. Don't get me wrong: movements certainly can and do go "too far"[1], but in about 100% of the cases, the political activism that has brought us where we are was viewed as having gone too far (the American revolution and the abolitionist movement included).

In general, conservatives (like Pinker) pretty much always get the history wrong (the facts, the interpretation, and usually both), while liberals are usually wrong about the future (and I say this as a radical leftist). That's why it's easy to poke fun at conservatives who write history (certainly those who, like Pinker, are not professional historians), while liberals are always surprised of the turn of events (for good or bad; when liberals -- including myself -- are optimistic I'm worried, and when they're pessimistic I know I can relax).

[1]: Feminists not so much; there's been a constant decline in the fervor feminist activism over the past century, but certainly, say, the French revolutionaries. Feminism has always been special for many understandable reasons. It is almost always the most timid form of social activism, yet almost always perceived as the most radical.

Re: My new favorite book of all time

#340

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you imprison people (violent or non-violent or even innocent) you may get less measurable violence. But perhaps only if you exclude imprisonment from your definitions of violence. That's one of the things ABCLAW is hinting at I think. I don't think it is the case, but it's worth considering.

> All in all, 15 percent of African-American men in the United States have been to prison (compared to about 6 percent of all adult men). But those figures reflect all men alive, including older men lucky enough to have escaped the great incarceration drive. For younger cohorts the risks are far higher. For boys born in 2001, the lifetime probability of incarceration is estimated to be 32 percent for young black men,…

Pinker explicitly removes these from his analysis, stating that including them is confusing and only serves to allow people to attach 'violence' to things they dislike, and that physical violence is a large enough topic for a book.

He may be right logistically regarding book writing, but he does not account for the effect of his narrowed scope in his conclusions, nor does he account for the extraction of morality in his definition with the attempt of his project in lauding the progress of humans as good.

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