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My new favorite book of all time

gatesnotes.com

51–60 of 421 posts

Re: My new favorite book of all time

#51
post #6

"Sapiens" is another great recommendation by him https://www.gatesnotes.com/Books/Sapiens-A-Brief-History-of-...

I appreciated Sapiens because while it also examines similar measures for how our lives are "improving," it also stops to ask how we decide what those measures should be. Progress is subjective.

Re: My new favorite book of all time

#52
"The bomb? The plague? Trump? Not to worry; things are getting better."[0]

Comparing Trump to nuclear bombs and plagues does not seem a good idea to start a conversation about reason, science, humanism, and progress.

[0]https://stevenpinker.com/files/pinker/files/kirkus_review_of...

Re: My new favorite book of all time

#53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> "War is illegal. This idea seems obvious. Yet that one rule is broken multiple times a year by multiple nations in multiple regions on earth.

It's a process. The point is that there is far less war going on now than ever before, on a population adjusted basis.

Further to that point, there hasn't been a serious war between major powers in seven decades. One of the longest stretches in recorded history.

Overwhelmingly what we've seen in the way of war deaths since WW2, is in civil war and genocides by Socialist, Communist and Fascist regimes.

Re: My new favorite book of all time

#54

" War is illegal. This idea seems obvious. But before the creation of the United Nations in 1945, no institution had the power to stop countries from going to war with each other. Although there have been some exceptions, the threat of international sanctions and intervention has proven to be an effective deterrent to wars between nations." I would argue that something else that happened in 1945 has been a much bigge…

>Surely the Cold War would have been a real war if not for nukes, no? I don't think the US and Russia were avoiding conflict because "the UN made it illegal."

No way, no how. Russia's economy, at their peak, was 1/7th of the size of the USA's. At the end of WW2, it's unlikely they could have beaten western Europe, let alone kept the US out, who were clocking 50% of world GDP at the end of '45.

Equally, the USA could have never beaten Russia in the USSR itself. The entire nation was an absolute fortress. The armies of tanks, that would be vulnerable to air power in an offensive war, would be absolutely unstoppable in a defensive war, where you don't have long supply lines.

Re: My new favorite book of all time

#55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> "War is illegal. This idea seems obvious. Yet that one rule is broken multiple times a year by multiple nations in multiple regions on earth.

Including by the countries supposed to enforce the rule (UN security council: Russia who annexed Crimea, China building illegal islands in the Pacific, US who started wars based on lies for oil..)

Which wars did the US start on a lie for oil?

Re: My new favorite book of all time

#56
post #16

Love Pinker but thought this was too funny not to share: "Steven Pinker jinxes the world" on how a lot of the trends that he spoke about started to stall and even reverse since the publication of the book. https://amp.reddit.com/r/slatestarcodex/comments/6ggwap/stev...

I remember something called like frontpage or coverage effect; by the time mainstream people talk about something big, it peaked.

It's a well-known superstition in sports: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sports_Illustrated_cover_jinx.

Re: My new favorite book of all time

#57
I haven't read the book but I wonder.. as a billionaire he clearly stands to gain a lot from spreading a message of optimism and collective progress over the last century presumably to maintain status quo when an equally factual but completely opposite perspective on the world (unprecedented levels of inequality, our global lack of response to climate change, etc.) is also there for us to see.

I find it very hard to believe that his motives are so pure.

Re: My new favorite book of all time

#58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> "War is illegal. This idea seems obvious. Yet that one rule is broken multiple times a year by multiple nations in multiple regions on earth.

The data shows a downward trend in interstate conflicts, colonial conflicts, and per capita battle deaths since the 40's. Civil conflicts peaked in the early 90's, but nukes aren't a factor in those. Source: https://files.prio.org/publication_files/prio/Gates,%20Nyg%C...

There is other research[0] (also recently posted to HN, though it got a lot less traction than Gates and Pinker), that claims this trend may very likely not be there. It's very hard to prove.

[0] http://www.mn.uio.no/math/english/research/projects/focustat...

Re: My new favorite book of all time

#59

Interesting facts discussed: * The global average IQ score is rising by about 3 IQ points every decade. * Time spent doing laundry fell from 11.5 hours a week in 1920 to an hour and a half in 2014.

..on laundry, that hour and a half is spent washing a lot more clothes than the eleven before. If we had the limited wardrobes of those people, it'd probably be down to twenty minutes.

On the flip side, 11 hours seems high. I've washed clothes by hand before; it doesn't take that long and in fact it's faster than washing by machine (though you can't do something else at the same time).

Re: My new favorite book of all time

#60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Including by the countries supposed to enforce the rule (UN security council: Russia who annexed Crimea, China building illegal islands in the Pacific, US who started wars based on lies for oil..)

Which wars did the US start on a lie for oil ?

You already know which one.

Halliburton share prices from 2003-2005: https://i.imgur.com/UgPNCBg.gif

NY Times article about the division of Iraq oilfields: http://www.nytimes.com/2011/06/15/business/energy-environmen...

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