11–20 of 36 posts
Suppose he was a master of seeing trends till his last days. All this happened when Newton was almost 80 years old. However, he died 7 years later happily as one of most famous people of all times.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
That chart shows a little under 10x from beginning to peak. Many people compare cryptocurrencies to the South Sea company, however, many of the different cryptocurrencies have gone 15-30x within the last year. A lot of the hype in the media seems to be gone (or is now "doom and gloom"), so it will be interesting to see whether or not today's values can be sustained without a high rate of people continously buying in.
1. Most bubbles are not global but geographically restricted in some way; crypto is global. 2. There is some value to Blockchain technology, so the value is not $0. 3. When comparing, given all of these assets had a starting value of effectively $0 at launch, you should probably look at them from an angel investment PoV. Peter Thiel got similar returns when investing in Facebook. I'm not saying crypto is (entirely) c…
Earlier quoted context omitted.
1. Most bubbles are not global but geographically restricted in some way; crypto is global. 2. There is some value to Blockchain technology, so the value is not $0. 3. When comparing, given all of these assets had a starting value of effectively $0 at launch, you should probably look at them from an angel investment PoV. Peter Thiel got similar returns when investing in Facebook. I'm not saying crypto is (entirely) c…
2. There's value in blockchain technology, certainly, but someone who buys (any kind of) bitcoin is not buying technology. You wouldn't invest in baseball cards just because you think there's value in sport, would you?
However, some people are buying Ethereum (not Bitcoin) because they think there is value in Blockchain technology.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
1. Most bubbles are not global but geographically restricted in some way; crypto is global. 2. There is some value to Blockchain technology, so the value is not $0. 3. When comparing, given all of these assets had a starting value of effectively $0 at launch, you should probably look at them from an angel investment PoV. Peter Thiel got similar returns when investing in Facebook. I'm not saying crypto is (entirely) c…
Most bubbles are debt driven phenomena. I'm not entirely convinced people are playing the crypto market en masse using debt based instruments (besides the dollar itself, which is our point of reference anyways).
I have a friend who did that, and he has done well. So it's definitely happening.
For those short on time, here's a TL;DR image: https://i.imgur.com/AEzxuLy.jpg
Earlier quoted context omitted.
1. Most bubbles are not global but geographically restricted in some way; crypto is global. 2. There is some value to Blockchain technology, so the value is not $0. 3. When comparing, given all of these assets had a starting value of effectively $0 at launch, you should probably look at them from an angel investment PoV. Peter Thiel got similar returns when investing in Facebook. I'm not saying crypto is (entirely) c…
> 2. There is some value to Blockchain technology, so the value is not $0. The value of current crypto-currencies might very well be zero, even if there is some value to blockchain technology. > 4. The global market is still tiny? The entire crypto space is $550bn in market cap. Facebook is $552bn in market cap. Comparing market caps like that is silly. I launch my own coin pg314-coin, 1 billion exist. I sell one to…
Sure. I'm just saying; you can't know. Bitcoin might be around in 5 years, Ethereum might be the platform everything gets built upon, or something better comes along, or it all dies never to be heard of again.
> Comparing market caps like that is silly. I launch my own coin pg314-coin, 1 billion exist. I sell one to my friend for $1000. The market cap is now $1 trillion, twice that of Facebook...
Approx. $10bn worth of Bitcoin was traded in the last 24 hours ($200bn market cap). Approx. $3.4bn Facebook shares were traded per day during the last 50 trading sessions ($550bn market cap).
Let's assume that even half of that Bitcoin trading is wash trading (which I don't think so). I think it's a pretty good way of looking at market caps. But you're right for the smaller coins -- those valuations are not in line with the money invested.
> That is true of any period in time where the stock market went up. If you have a positive return to start with you can have an arbitrary multiplier with 'leverage used in a smart way'.
Sure. But debt has been cheap in the last 10 to 20 years, and that has driven up asset prices significantly across the globe. People overpay for assets everywhere.
In times when everything has been going up, people are more willing to take risks. In times where everything is falling, people are less likely to take on speculative investments. That's just part of the cycle.
Suppose he was a master of seeing trends till his last days. All this happened when Newton was almost 80 years old. However, he died 7 years later happily as one of most famous people of all times.
Was he really happy? Newton was generally an angry loner who spent a lot of effort demeaning his peers.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
That chart shows a little under 10x from beginning to peak. Many people compare cryptocurrencies to the South Sea company, however, many of the different cryptocurrencies have gone 15-30x within the last year. A lot of the hype in the media seems to be gone (or is now "doom and gloom"), so it will be interesting to see whether or not today's values can be sustained without a high rate of people continously buying in.
Because markets move quicker than they did in the 18th century. These bubbles have progressively grown and collapsed quicker and quicker with the introduction of railways, telegraphs, phones, improvements in printing presses, radio, television and finally the Internet. The pattern is still the same. You can look at Railway Mania, the Oil boom of the mid 1800s, the Florida property boom, the airline boom of the early…
This article kind of changed my life perspective in so many ways. Till now, I always believed that Newton & Einstein were "otherworldly" scientists who never dabbled in earthly mortal ventures like equity , SIP, mutual funds etc. Now I realize they had to worry about their subsistence & daily bread just as I need to.
It is why we will always have financial bubbles and scams.