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Scientists In Alaska Find Mammoth Amounts Of Carbon In The Warming Permafrost

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Re: Scientists In Alaska Find Mammoth Amounts Of Carbon In The Warming Permafrost

#141

Post by btrettel »

matte_black wrote: post #26
corpMaverick wrote: post #2

It is not just a bomb that can blow the arctic. It can destroy all human civilization. And at this point, we may have lost any ability to do anything. Edit: Doom scale... 1 Inconvenient storms. 2 More frequent natural disasters. 3 Destroying coastal cities. 4 Causing hunger, wars and mass migrations. 5 Decimating human population. 6 Destroying human civilization. 7 Destroying all humans on earth. 8 Destroying all lif…

There is something we can do. We can enjoy what we have here and now, for as long as it lasts, for as long as we can.

In the abstract what you wrote is fine, but my impression is that "enjoy what we have here and now" means "keep polluting" to most people. I think people can maintain or even improve their own happiness while decreasing their pollution. At least this could make humanity last longer.

I'm a transportation cyclist. I mostly ride to save money and improve my physical fitness. The environmental benefits seem to depend on one's diet (mine is about half vegetarian), but seem pretty clear. When talking with some drivers they seem to have the implicit belief that transportation cycling is a "sacrifice" I make for the environment, as if I believe that driving is obviously better. They seem pretty surprised when I tell them that I'd still ride even without the environmental benefits because I enjoy being fit and can put the money to better use. It's not a sacrifice, it's a preference. One I think many folks would agree with if they gave cycling a chance. I think there are quite a few things that people would consider to be massive sacrifices but actually end up being fine.

Re: Scientists In Alaska Find Mammoth Amounts Of Carbon In The Warming Permafrost

#142

Post by justadudeama »

stale2002 wrote: post #137
matte_black wrote: post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Education is not the savior. There is a physical limit to resources here on this Earth. There is only so much food we can make, only so many jobs we can create. The only way to manage population is to control breeding. That is not a scaleable solution.

Yeah there is indeed a physical limit to human population. And that physical limit is much closer to 100 billion people, than it is to 1 billion. Population growth is already on the downward trend, and we are expected to reach population growth neutrality by 2040.

Do you have some sources on the max amount of people on Earth? Just curious.

Re: Scientists In Alaska Find Mammoth Amounts Of Carbon In The Warming Permafrost

#143

Post by sulam »

maxxxxx wrote: post #130
rexaliquid wrote: post #115

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think you are equating "human civilization" with "humanity". I agree that some people are likely to survive a catastrophe, but I don't think that what we think of as civilization is likely to survive a 90% or 99% population reduction. Or as lifeformed put it elsewhere: "Destroying all civilization doesn't mean destroying all humans, but just the structures that hold society together. A runaway heating scenario may…

Let's say temps rise by 10 degrees and sea levels rise a lot. I would think there will still be a lot of areas that will be inhabitable. I don't think that the atmosphere will become unbreathable. I think you can have a pretty sophisticated civilization with 100 million or even 10 million people. Again, I am not saying these things are OK. We should worry about displacing millions of people and probably wars but civi…

Of course the planet will be inhabitable. Will there be any of us to inhabit it? Or will war break out because of population migration due to the effects of climate change? I don't know the answer to the first question, but the second one is easy -- it's already happening.

Re: Scientists In Alaska Find Mammoth Amounts Of Carbon In The Warming Permafrost

#144

Post by rexaliquid »

dmix wrote: post #131
rexaliquid wrote: post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Clathrate gun hypothesis and the thawing of the Arctic ecosystem are two of the "Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse" that the US government investigates. These are possible scenarios for abrupt climate change (aka tipping points). The other two involve antarctic ice sheet instability and megadroughts in North America. http://newscenter.lbl.gov/2008/09/17/impacts-on-the-threshol...

Sounds very similar... Or at least variations of the same idea.

They are both examples of positive feedback loops that result in abrupt changes to the climate, yes. But, because they are different systems, the feedback loops behave differently. Methane trapped in sea ice is studied and modeled separately from organisms frozen in arctic permafrost.

Re: Scientists In Alaska Find Mammoth Amounts Of Carbon In The Warming Permafrost

#145

Post by sulam »

dredmorbius wrote: post #66
knodi123 wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"all human civilization"? Isn't that a bit hyperbolic? destructive, sure. It would certainly lead to a lot of death, and a lot of hardship. Human civilization will certainly be changed- perhaps significantly. But I haven't see any evidence that it will cease to exist.

The resilience of humanity may actually be inversely proportional to its population. Yonatan Zunger, of Google, writing nearly five years ago, tossed out a fact that's stuck with me since: the response of "large animal" populations to global temperature changes: "When the biota of a planet get rewritten, the creatures that require the most delicate maintenance die first. This tends to mean really big creatures, that…

Before you get too happy about PETM, realize we are putting CO2 into the atmosphere at six times the peak PETM rate.

We are in for a rough ride over the next several hundred years.

Re: Scientists In Alaska Find Mammoth Amounts Of Carbon In The Warming Permafrost

#146

Post by mc32 »

SEJeff wrote: post #100
FeteCommuniste wrote: post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would bet on a medium-sized to big, healthy dog against a velociraptor. Raptors were around the size of a turkey. Might not be an easy fight, though.

Velociraptors have two rows of teeth in addition to a 2.5" retractable middle claw theorized to be used for slashing or stabbing attacks. Many dogs would have a size advantage, but all would have fewer teeth and generally soft padded paws with no serious claws. Even with the smaller size, the Velociraptors seemingly have the advantage. The "Fighting Dinosaurs" fossils give some credence to the claw being used to pier…

Do wild turkeys have spurs like fighting cocks, and how do they fare against dogs, i would wonder.

Re: Scientists In Alaska Find Mammoth Amounts Of Carbon In The Warming Permafrost

#147

Post by chiefalchemist »

Despite the cliche title...frozen up to 1,000 feet down. That caught my eye. Plenty can be hidden in a vault that deep. Perhaps the next ebola? Or worse?

Add this to the list: Climate Change and the Things We're Unprepared For.

Re: Scientists In Alaska Find Mammoth Amounts Of Carbon In The Warming Permafrost

#148

Post by sulam »

legohead wrote: post #76
corpMaverick wrote: post #2

It is not just a bomb that can blow the arctic. It can destroy all human civilization. And at this point, we may have lost any ability to do anything. Edit: Doom scale... 1 Inconvenient storms. 2 More frequent natural disasters. 3 Destroying coastal cities. 4 Causing hunger, wars and mass migrations. 5 Decimating human population. 6 Destroying human civilization. 7 Destroying all humans on earth. 8 Destroying all lif…

I don't get their test case. They took it to the lab, and thawed it up to room temperature ? That's not going to happen. It's going to get warmer, maybe just warm enough for the bacteria to thaw, and then immediately die. Did they do any realistic tests?

How warm do you really think things are going to get? There's no support for temperatures going up more than 20C. Bacteria will do just fine.

Re: Scientists In Alaska Find Mammoth Amounts Of Carbon In The Warming Permafrost

#149

Post by Johnny555 »

maxxxxx wrote: post #52
corpMaverick wrote: post #2

It is not just a bomb that can blow the arctic. It can destroy all human civilization. And at this point, we may have lost any ability to do anything. Edit: Doom scale... 1 Inconvenient storms. 2 More frequent natural disasters. 3 Destroying coastal cities. 4 Causing hunger, wars and mass migrations. 5 Decimating human population. 6 Destroying human civilization. 7 Destroying all humans on earth. 8 Destroying all lif…

" It can destroy all human civilization." I think saying stuff like this should be avoided. There is almost no chance that civilization will be destroyed. There will be major problems but the world won't go under. By making up total doom scenarios credibility of climate change proponents goes down a lot in my view.

Note that it said "civilization", not "human kind". Fast climate change could innudate coastal regions, forcing mass migrations inland. Fast climate change may exceed agriculture's ability to adapt, leading to food shortages.

If the starving workers that keep infrastructure running (power plants, sewage plants, municipal water suppliers, etc) decide to go hunt for food instead of work, then that infrastructure may fail.

Once basic infrastructure fails, it won't take long for civilization to collapse too.

Re: Scientists In Alaska Find Mammoth Amounts Of Carbon In The Warming Permafrost

#150

Post by groby_b »

matte_black wrote: post #88
michaelmrose wrote: post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Humans prior to modern times haven't ever exceeded the carrying capacity of our environment and haven't had a die out that substantially reduced our population in modern times. Your thesis other than being fictional also is an emotional appeal to the concept that what is natural is desirable which is wholly unsound both on its face and because any die out sufficient to be effective is entirely likely to not only take…

Education is not the savior. There is a physical limit to resources here on this Earth. There is only so much food we can make, only so many jobs we can create. The only way to manage population is to control breeding. That is not a scaleable solution.

Malthus called, he wants you to read up on the 20th century.
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