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Scientists In Alaska Find Mammoth Amounts Of Carbon In The Warming Permafrost

npr.org

31–40 of 305 posts

Re: Scientists In Alaska Find Mammoth Amounts Of Carbon In The Warming Permafrost

#31
post #4

This is not a “time bomb”, which implies something being inflicted on us by a malevolent agent. It’s a temperature bomb. And we can easily prevent the explosion by simply not making the planet too hot.

>And we can easily prevent the explosion by simply not making the planet too hot.

Great, you should call up the U.N., they'll be excited to hear about this.

Re: Scientists In Alaska Find Mammoth Amounts Of Carbon In The Warming Permafrost

#32
post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are there credible models that suggest Earth will turn into Venus or something? It would take a hell of a lot more to end humanity than it would take to "merely" hurt/kill the most vulnerable segments of our population (which is what I thought the stakes were).

> Are there credible models that suggest Earth will turn into Venus or something? Yes, the model is called Venus. > (which is what I thought the stakes were). You were misinformed. The stakes are significantly higher than that.

I’m sorry, but it has long been shown Earth cannot simply turn into Venus given the current climate models.

Re: Scientists In Alaska Find Mammoth Amounts Of Carbon In The Warming Permafrost

#33

There could be anything underneath all the permafrost, including new biodiversity which we haven't catalogued yet. NPR ran a story[0] where Russian animals such as reindeer infected with Anthrax had thawed out, and caused outbreaks where people had to get preventative treatments against it. As a future threat model, what if there's new viruses or bacterium contained under previously frozen earth for which modern medi…

Such events are necessary to keep human population under a manageable number. Throughout human history there have been outbreaks that claimed many lives and stunted population growth for some time. We will likely see such an event in our time.

> Such events are necessary to keep human population under a manageable number.

Is there any evidence for this assertion?

Re: Scientists In Alaska Find Mammoth Amounts Of Carbon In The Warming Permafrost

#34

It is not just a bomb that can blow the arctic. It can destroy all human civilization. And at this point, we may have lost any ability to do anything. Edit: Doom scale... 1 Inconvenient storms. 2 More frequent natural disasters. 3 Destroying coastal cities. 4 Causing hunger, wars and mass migrations. 5 Decimating human population. 6 Destroying human civilization. 7 Destroying all humans on earth. 8 Destroying all lif…

The sad thing is that scientists have understood the risks of global warming for decades, and yet our civilization (maybe I'm just speaking for the US here) seems impotent to effectively coordinate a response to this slow-motion threat. It could be our own Great Filter. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Filter

US emissions have plateaued two decades ago [0]. Emissions are growing unchecked elsewhere, a combination of population explosion and rapid industrialization.

[0] http://www.climatechangenews.com/2017/03/31/chinese-co2-emis...

Re: Scientists In Alaska Find Mammoth Amounts Of Carbon In The Warming Permafrost

#35
post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The sad thing is that scientists have understood the risks of global warming for decades, and yet our civilization (maybe I'm just speaking for the US here) seems impotent to effectively coordinate a response to this slow-motion threat. It could be our own Great Filter. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Filter

> decades More than a century, in some cases. Capitalism needs additional constraints or it will end all civilization. Simply, the cost of creating greenhouse gasses has never been priced in to the market since Exxon and the likes have lobbied hard for decades to not let the truth gain any traction. They should all be in jail and there should be no profits in destroying ecosystems. Otherwise there seems no hope.

In a socialized system you'd have the same thing, except perpetuated by bureaucrats instead of businessmen.

If anything, capitalism has an advantage in that it's at least theoretically possible to mitigate the effect of greed on politics. Throwing all your eggs into the government basket gives you no such recourse.

Re: Scientists In Alaska Find Mammoth Amounts Of Carbon In The Warming Permafrost

#37
post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are there credible models that suggest Earth will turn into Venus or something? It would take a hell of a lot more to end humanity than it would take to "merely" hurt/kill the most vulnerable segments of our population (which is what I thought the stakes were).

There is definitely no shortage of doomsday climate models. CREDIBLE models is a different story. Look back at ones from 20+ years ago to see what they predicted would be happening by now. It's pretty funny actually.

The models from 20 years ago overshot by several confidence intervals because they underestimated mixing the deep ocean. "The barrel is bigger than we expected" doesn't make the rising water in the barrel any less concerning, but it's not the triumph of foresight that you seem to imply.

Re: Scientists In Alaska Find Mammoth Amounts Of Carbon In The Warming Permafrost

#38

There could be anything underneath all the permafrost, including new biodiversity which we haven't catalogued yet. NPR ran a story[0] where Russian animals such as reindeer infected with Anthrax had thawed out, and caused outbreaks where people had to get preventative treatments against it. As a future threat model, what if there's new viruses or bacterium contained under previously frozen earth for which modern medi…

There was a recent Icelandic (I think) TV show with a premise along these lines

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fortitude_(TV_series)

Filmed in Iceland, set in Norway. Slow paced but quite excellent.

(S2 was not as good as S1, however)

Re: Scientists In Alaska Find Mammoth Amounts Of Carbon In The Warming Permafrost

#39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The sad thing is that scientists have understood the risks of global warming for decades, and yet our civilization (maybe I'm just speaking for the US here) seems impotent to effectively coordinate a response to this slow-motion threat. It could be our own Great Filter. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Filter

Are there credible models that suggest Earth will turn into Venus or something? It would take a hell of a lot more to end humanity than it would take to "merely" hurt/kill the most vulnerable segments of our population (which is what I thought the stakes were).

No, the Earth has been a lot warmer and colder in the past. We've had massive volcanoes going off for thousands of years, we've had iceball earth, we've had crocodiles and palm trees in the arctic.

The Earth's systems always balance out over the long run. We don't stay trapped in ice ages or hot phases.

Re: Scientists In Alaska Find Mammoth Amounts Of Carbon In The Warming Permafrost

#40
post #4

This is not a “time bomb”, which implies something being inflicted on us by a malevolent agent. It’s a temperature bomb. And we can easily prevent the explosion by simply not making the planet too hot.

Glad you cleared that up. I feel better now.
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