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Scientists In Alaska Find Mammoth Amounts Of Carbon In The Warming Permafrost

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Re: Scientists In Alaska Find Mammoth Amounts Of Carbon In The Warming Permafrost

#21

Post by cryptoz »

jjoonathan wrote: post #14
mr_overalls wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The sad thing is that scientists have understood the risks of global warming for decades, and yet our civilization (maybe I'm just speaking for the US here) seems impotent to effectively coordinate a response to this slow-motion threat. It could be our own Great Filter. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Filter

Are there credible models that suggest Earth will turn into Venus or something? It would take a hell of a lot more to end humanity than it would take to "merely" hurt/kill the most vulnerable segments of our population (which is what I thought the stakes were).

> Are there credible models that suggest Earth will turn into Venus or something?

Yes, the model is called Venus.

> (which is what I thought the stakes were).

You were misinformed. The stakes are significantly higher than that.

Re: Scientists In Alaska Find Mammoth Amounts Of Carbon In The Warming Permafrost

#22

Post by skrowl »

jjoonathan wrote: post #14
mr_overalls wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The sad thing is that scientists have understood the risks of global warming for decades, and yet our civilization (maybe I'm just speaking for the US here) seems impotent to effectively coordinate a response to this slow-motion threat. It could be our own Great Filter. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Filter

Are there credible models that suggest Earth will turn into Venus or something? It would take a hell of a lot more to end humanity than it would take to "merely" hurt/kill the most vulnerable segments of our population (which is what I thought the stakes were).

There is definitely no shortage of doomsday climate models. CREDIBLE models is a different story.

Look back at ones from 20+ years ago to see what they predicted would be happening by now. It's pretty funny actually.

Re: Scientists In Alaska Find Mammoth Amounts Of Carbon In The Warming Permafrost

#23

Post by sgt101 »

notsofastbuddy wrote: post #16
knodi123 wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"all human civilization"? Isn't that a bit hyperbolic? destructive, sure. It would certainly lead to a lot of death, and a lot of hardship. Human civilization will certainly be changed- perhaps significantly. But I haven't see any evidence that it will cease to exist.

No. There's a pretty clear path: rising temperatures->food supply disruption->regional war->nuclear war->there are maybe a few people left in bunkers.

I agree but I think the chain can shorten to

nuclear war->there are maybe a few people left in bunkers.

If we were to get rid of the nuclear option then both your chain and my chain would not be viable.

Nukes before greenhouses?

Re: Scientists In Alaska Find Mammoth Amounts Of Carbon In The Warming Permafrost

#24

Post by matte_black »

kregasaurusrex wrote: post #7

There could be anything underneath all the permafrost, including new biodiversity which we haven't catalogued yet. NPR ran a story[0] where Russian animals such as reindeer infected with Anthrax had thawed out, and caused outbreaks where people had to get preventative treatments against it. As a future threat model, what if there's new viruses or bacterium contained under previously frozen earth for which modern medi…

Such events are necessary to keep human population under a manageable number. Throughout human history there have been outbreaks that claimed many lives and stunted population growth for some time. We will likely see such an event in our time.

Re: Scientists In Alaska Find Mammoth Amounts Of Carbon In The Warming Permafrost

#25

Post by jjoonathan »

cryptoz wrote: post #21
jjoonathan wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are there credible models that suggest Earth will turn into Venus or something? It would take a hell of a lot more to end humanity than it would take to "merely" hurt/kill the most vulnerable segments of our population (which is what I thought the stakes were).

> Are there credible models that suggest Earth will turn into Venus or something? Yes, the model is called Venus. > (which is what I thought the stakes were). You were misinformed. The stakes are significantly higher than that.

Venus is a shit model for Earth. Try again.

Re: Scientists In Alaska Find Mammoth Amounts Of Carbon In The Warming Permafrost

#26

Post by matte_black »

corpMaverick wrote: post #2

It is not just a bomb that can blow the arctic. It can destroy all human civilization. And at this point, we may have lost any ability to do anything. Edit: Doom scale... 1 Inconvenient storms. 2 More frequent natural disasters. 3 Destroying coastal cities. 4 Causing hunger, wars and mass migrations. 5 Decimating human population. 6 Destroying human civilization. 7 Destroying all humans on earth. 8 Destroying all lif…

There is something we can do. We can enjoy what we have here and now, for as long as it lasts, for as long as we can.

Re: Scientists In Alaska Find Mammoth Amounts Of Carbon In The Warming Permafrost

#27

Post by cgb223 »

kregasaurusrex wrote: post #7

There could be anything underneath all the permafrost, including new biodiversity which we haven't catalogued yet. NPR ran a story[0] where Russian animals such as reindeer infected with Anthrax had thawed out, and caused outbreaks where people had to get preventative treatments against it. As a future threat model, what if there's new viruses or bacterium contained under previously frozen earth for which modern medi…

How effective were the preventative measures on that?

Do we have a cure / vaccine?

Re: Scientists In Alaska Find Mammoth Amounts Of Carbon In The Warming Permafrost

#28

Post by chesimov »

kregasaurusrex wrote: post #7

There could be anything underneath all the permafrost, including new biodiversity which we haven't catalogued yet. NPR ran a story[0] where Russian animals such as reindeer infected with Anthrax had thawed out, and caused outbreaks where people had to get preventative treatments against it. As a future threat model, what if there's new viruses or bacterium contained under previously frozen earth for which modern medi…

There was a recent Icelandic (I think) TV show with a premise along these lines

Re: Scientists In Alaska Find Mammoth Amounts Of Carbon In The Warming Permafrost

#29

Post by soperj »

coolso wrote: post #10
mr_overalls wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Except in this case, the scientific consensus is "yes". The IPCC report for policy-makers: https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/syr/AR5_SYR_FI...

Is scientific consensus incapable of being wrong?

Newton`s theory of relativity.

Re: Scientists In Alaska Find Mammoth Amounts Of Carbon In The Warming Permafrost

#30

Post by tzahola »

bsaul wrote: post #12
kregasaurusrex wrote: post #7

There could be anything underneath all the permafrost, including new biodiversity which we haven't catalogued yet. NPR ran a story[0] where Russian animals such as reindeer infected with Anthrax had thawed out, and caused outbreaks where people had to get preventative treatments against it. As a future threat model, what if there's new viruses or bacterium contained under previously frozen earth for which modern medi…

Or, what if every of those bacteries whose evolution stopped thousands of years ago are simply completely inapt to compete with the ones we've got today, because those had much more time to evolve ?

That’s not how evolution works. That’s like saying that a dog could easily kill a velociraptor because dogs are 65 million years “more evolved”.
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