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The Google Lunar X Prize’s Race to the Moon Is Over. Nobody Won

nytimes.com

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Re: The Google Lunar X Prize’s Race to the Moon Is Over. Nobody Won

#41

Post by mLuby »

greenhouse_gas wrote: post #38
jk4930 wrote: post #27

I work with a former GLXP team (PTScientists from Germany). We left the prize in early 2017 and will launch in 2019. We're actually grateful for the GLXP. It opened doors, it did spread the word and created a community, it forced us to push through to meet deadlines. We had to develop business models (the prize itself wouldn't cover the costs) and adopt a professional mindset while not losing the hacker approach. And…

Just curious (not a competitor :), what business model is there in placing micro-sats on the moon?

Not in the industry, but I'd guess in the short term there are two options:

- scientific orgs (NASA, universities, etc); I get they'd love to pay for access to lunar surface. Maybe even some imaging from the dark side of the Moon?

- prospecting companies like Deep Space Industries or Planetary Resources.

Re: The Google Lunar X Prize’s Race to the Moon Is Over. Nobody Won

#42

Post by mLuby »

ChuckMcM wrote: post #40

It isn't like $20M is killing the balance sheets at Google. It seems silly that they wouldn't just leave it out there "indefinitely" until it was claimed.

These prizes should be left to automatically compound interest/investment until they're claimed.

Re: The Google Lunar X Prize’s Race to the Moon Is Over. Nobody Won

#43

Post by jk4930 »

greenhouse_gas wrote: post #38
jk4930 wrote: post #27

I work with a former GLXP team (PTScientists from Germany). We left the prize in early 2017 and will launch in 2019. We're actually grateful for the GLXP. It opened doors, it did spread the word and created a community, it forced us to push through to meet deadlines. We had to develop business models (the prize itself wouldn't cover the costs) and adopt a professional mindset while not losing the hacker approach. And…

Just curious (not a competitor :), what business model is there in placing micro-sats on the moon?

Considering that there's little time left, your payload (and business model) has severe constraints. Unless you have something pre-developed and nearly ready to launch (e.g. at a university), aim for something simple. That leaves you mostly with media attention (sponsors), technology demos (e.g. for third parties), paraphernalia/vanity items that wealthy individuals or communities pay for (no remains or religious artifacts please). But please be inventive.

$980k (€800k) [1] for the first kg to the lunar surface, for lunar orbit it's less (ask me in private, it's not published). Expect $50k-500k to develop the payload (depends on what it is and who builds it). There are several open source CubeSat designs and kits that give you an idea.

So whether you have a simple payload/business model or a more sophisticated one (more suitable for a later launch probably), contact me better sooner rather than later. Many details need to be cleared early on.

[1] http://ptscientists.com/products/payload/

Re: The Google Lunar X Prize’s Race to the Moon Is Over. Nobody Won

#44

Post by MichaelMoser123 »

>The foundation raised the possibility of a new sponsor or continuing the competition without any cash prizes.

Can that be read as a possible sign that Google has less cash to spend on such projects nowadays? Are they trying to save the money?

Re: The Google Lunar X Prize’s Race to the Moon Is Over. Nobody Won

#45

Post by anovikov »

jk4930 wrote: post #27

I work with a former GLXP team (PTScientists from Germany). We left the prize in early 2017 and will launch in 2019. We're actually grateful for the GLXP. It opened doors, it did spread the word and created a community, it forced us to push through to meet deadlines. We had to develop business models (the prize itself wouldn't cover the costs) and adopt a professional mindset while not losing the hacker approach. And…

Is there some site where i could find the mass estimates for all system components, as well as injection trajectory/delta-V budgets?

All GLXP entrants i heard of seem to have planned to make do with exceptionally low LEO insertion mass. Which sometimes made me think of them as vaporware.

Re: The Google Lunar X Prize’s Race to the Moon Is Over. Nobody Won

#46

Post by greenhouse_gas »

jk4930 wrote: post #43
greenhouse_gas wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Just curious (not a competitor :), what business model is there in placing micro-sats on the moon?

Considering that there's little time left, your payload (and business model) has severe constraints. Unless you have something pre-developed and nearly ready to launch (e.g. at a university), aim for something simple. That leaves you mostly with media attention (sponsors), technology demos (e.g. for third parties), paraphernalia/vanity items that wealthy individuals or communities pay for (no remains or religious art…

Sorry if I wasn't clear but I don't have anywhere close to that kind of money to place something anywhere near the moon.

I was just being curious as to who would.

Re: The Google Lunar X Prize’s Race to the Moon Is Over. Nobody Won

#47

Post by jk4930 »

anovikov wrote: post #45
jk4930 wrote: post #27

I work with a former GLXP team (PTScientists from Germany). We left the prize in early 2017 and will launch in 2019. We're actually grateful for the GLXP. It opened doors, it did spread the word and created a community, it forced us to push through to meet deadlines. We had to develop business models (the prize itself wouldn't cover the costs) and adopt a professional mindset while not losing the hacker approach. And…

Is there some site where i could find the mass estimates for all system components, as well as injection trajectory/delta-V budgets? All GLXP entrants i heard of seem to have planned to make do with exceptionally low LEO insertion mass. Which sometimes made me think of them as vaporware.

Other than that it's GTO, we didn't publish orbital parameters or spacecraft/payload specs AFAIK.

Re: The Google Lunar X Prize’s Race to the Moon Is Over. Nobody Won

#48

Post by watersb »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #14

"Prizes are useful in bringing credibility to an industry, inspiring entrepreneurs and investors, and attracting new customers to an industry. Both the aviation and space benefited from the Orteig and Ansari X prizes. But, by challenging people to perform what are essentially stunts, they do not always address the fundamental technologies required to truly move a sector forward. And that can have deadly consequences.…

Excellent quote, and thanks for posting it.

But the comment about Burt Rutan stings; he is the most effective aerospace engineer I can imagine. Said something like

“I don’t design planes, I design flight tests.”

Re: The Google Lunar X Prize’s Race to the Moon Is Over. Nobody Won

#49

Post by wgolsen »

boltzmannbrain wrote: post #32
jk4930 wrote: post #27

I work with a former GLXP team (PTScientists from Germany). We left the prize in early 2017 and will launch in 2019. We're actually grateful for the GLXP. It opened doors, it did spread the word and created a community, it forced us to push through to meet deadlines. We had to develop business models (the prize itself wouldn't cover the costs) and adopt a professional mindset while not losing the hacker approach. And…

Seconded. I worked with Astrobotic ( https://www.astrobotic.com ) while at CMU, and many of us have the GLXP to thank for becoming better engineers and leaders.

What years? I visited Dr. Whittaker and David Gump in ~2010 to present an analysis of their business plan. At the time I was thoroughly impressed with the tech/team and equally unimpressed with the business case Gump had made. I hope things have progressed since then because I'd love to see (some iteration of) the lander I touched actually reaching the lunar surface.

My favorite part of this encounter was how convinced I was that my team was teasing me when they insisted Red would tell 'the gorilla story' within 20 minutes of meeting us. Lo and behold, no more than 10 minutes in he tells us about the time he wrestled with a gorilla ('way back before animal rights was a thing'). What a fascinating guy.

Re: The Google Lunar X Prize’s Race to the Moon Is Over. Nobody Won

#50

Post by elif »

mLuby wrote: post #42
ChuckMcM wrote: post #40

It isn't like $20M is killing the balance sheets at Google. It seems silly that they wouldn't just leave it out there "indefinitely" until it was claimed.

These prizes should be left to automatically compound interest/investment until they're claimed.

True, that would strengthen the business case for participants in subsequent competitions.
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