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Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Author of Black Swan, on Bitcoin

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Re: Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Author of Black Swan, on Bitcoin

#111
post #35
post #12

Sadly, NNT gets a key detail wrong: Bitcoin isn't controlled by its users, it's controlled by the miners.

Non-mining nodes still enforce the consensus rules. Miners can't just decide to increase the block size or change the total # of bitcoin to 42 million.

Non-mining nodes do not have the ability to change the block chain and therefore they do not affect the rest of the network.

Re: Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Author of Black Swan, on Bitcoin

#112

This utopian streak running through the crypto community is what convinces me most that it’s going to be a heartbreaker. > But Hayek used the notion of distributed knowledge. Well, it looks like we do not even need that thing called knowledge for things to work well. Nor do we need individual rationality. All we need is structure. Irrational exuberance is a good thing! And while these ideologues are busy demonizing t…

you can manipulate any market when it's small. that doesn't mean anything actually

Re: Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Author of Black Swan, on Bitcoin

#113
post #44

This utopian streak running through the crypto community is what convinces me most that it’s going to be a heartbreaker. > But Hayek used the notion of distributed knowledge. Well, it looks like we do not even need that thing called knowledge for things to work well. Nor do we need individual rationality. All we need is structure. Irrational exuberance is a good thing! And while these ideologues are busy demonizing t…

I honestly hope the utopian dream is smashed in the cryptocurrency community. It's not the kind of "utopia" I want to be a part of. I like the technical ideas behind cryptocurrency, but the terrible political views are off-putting.

are you talking about rotten bank bailouts? yes terrible policies

Re: Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Author of Black Swan, on Bitcoin

#114
post #18
post #12

Sadly, NNT gets a key detail wrong: Bitcoin isn't controlled by its users, it's controlled by the miners.

And yet ultimately the users can move to a fork if they are unhappy. To wit: Bitcoin Cash, which is the true bitcoin. (With Bitcoin Cash, Nassim's coffeeshop transaction would indeed be possible, and without needing to wait for 10+ minutes, contrary to popular belief.)

Your comment is bad, but since you brought it up, you can buy coffee with bitcoin: https://twitter.com/alexbosworth/status/955870434230132736

The lightning network is still in beta, but it's certainly a much more scalable solution than bcash or any other fork.

Re: Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Author of Black Swan, on Bitcoin

#115

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Read this as a comment from a cryptocurrency lurker. > Bitcoin Cash, which is the true bitcoin. I see this statement repeated often, to the point of sounding like a strategy of "if you repeat a lie enough, people will believe it". Isn't Bitcoin Cash the minority result of a Bitcoin fork? Isn't the majority result by definition the true Bitcoin?

Bitcoin cash is much closer to the original implementation by Satoshi Nakamoto. It's simply a much smaller, and IMO, cleaner codebase that just increased one parameter to achieve scaling. Bitcoin core (what we call BTC) has many more lines of non-Satoshi code that was added to facilitate off-chain scaling.

The thing is that Satoshi never left a roadmap, and indefinitely increasing the block size to meet demand isn't plausible. So even if bcash were to become the "real bitcoin" it would have to come up with an off-chain solution.

SegWit and Lightning are such elegant solutions that I can't really see a person as brilliant as Satoshi rejecting it.

Re: Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Author of Black Swan, on Bitcoin

#116
post #4

A pretty correct analysis imo > [Bitcoin] not good enough to buy your decaffeinated expresso macchiato at your local virtue-signaling coffee chain. Plus he has some humor.

Actually, you can indeed buy an expresso with bitcoin:

https://twitter.com/alexbosworth/status/955870434230132736

Re: Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Author of Black Swan, on Bitcoin

#117
post #39

Governments could ban crypto sites, crypto trading, and conversion to currency. While this won’t completely kill it, it marginalizes it to such an extent that it won’t be an attractive medium for most folks because most people are lazy and don’t want the hassle.

Hell, China could reprice electricity rates for mining. That alone would almost do it.

China can also block exports to the US and bring it down, for that matter.

Re: Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Author of Black Swan, on Bitcoin

#118
post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I honestly hope the utopian dream is smashed in the cryptocurrency community. It's not the kind of "utopia" I want to be a part of. I like the technical ideas behind cryptocurrency, but the terrible political views are off-putting.

I'm legitimately interested in cryptocurrency; I think it's a really cool idea. So what I'm hoping for is that everything goes as horribly wrong as possible, the price tanks, everyone's dreams are smashed, and all the bullshit takes disappear. At that point, the people who are interested in building something worthwhile will be the only ones who remain, and we can work in peace.

Because thats how we got such perfectly tuned markets like housing, stocks, international trade, debt. They never break down after one big crisis that takes lots of people down with them.

Re: Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Author of Black Swan, on Bitcoin

#119
post #61

> one can macroBS longer than microBS, which is why we need to be careful on who to endow with centralized macro decisions. Taleb goes overboard sometimes, but he has been so great for calling BS on finance pseudo-science.

I guess when you call everything 'BS', you're bound to be right some of the time.

I don't want to defend everything Nassim Taleb says because I don't agree with it. But its facile and wrong to say that he calls everything BS. And his earlier books were very much a clear attack on a poor use of statistics in finance. Antifragile is the work of a crank. Fooled by Randomness is just good.

Re: Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Author of Black Swan, on Bitcoin

#120
post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I honestly hope the utopian dream is smashed in the cryptocurrency community. It's not the kind of "utopia" I want to be a part of. I like the technical ideas behind cryptocurrency, but the terrible political views are off-putting.

While claiming the principles of Liberty for yourself (deciding what kind of "utopia" you want to be part of), would you deny that choice to others? This is perhaps what separates libertarians from liberals, conservatives, socialists, etc.: we simply do not deny others the liberty we claim for ourselves. If a monetary system that cannot be debased/controlled by government is available, does that not allow you to elec…

What libertarians deny is reality itself. Government is defined as a monopoly on violence. Non-coercive government is a contradiction in terms.
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