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Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Author of Black Swan, on Bitcoin

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Re: Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Author of Black Swan, on Bitcoin

#41

> But it is the first organic currency I'm guessing Taleb hasn't heard of Cowry shells [1]... [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cowry#Human_use

Sheesh, anyone schooled by Scrooge McDuck comics - Taleb's demographic is a pretty sure bet - would hit that bit of money history before puberty.

Re: Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Author of Black Swan, on Bitcoin

#42

This utopian streak running through the crypto community is what convinces me most that it’s going to be a heartbreaker. > But Hayek used the notion of distributed knowledge. Well, it looks like we do not even need that thing called knowledge for things to work well. Nor do we need individual rationality. All we need is structure. Irrational exuberance is a good thing! And while these ideologues are busy demonizing t…

For what it's worth, I think Hayek's vision of competitive money is often misrepresented by crypto folks. I wrote about it here: https://paulbutler.org/archives/stop-dragging-hayek-into-bit...

Re: Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Author of Black Swan, on Bitcoin

#43

This utopian streak running through the crypto community is what convinces me most that it’s going to be a heartbreaker. > But Hayek used the notion of distributed knowledge. Well, it looks like we do not even need that thing called knowledge for things to work well. Nor do we need individual rationality. All we need is structure. Irrational exuberance is a good thing! And while these ideologues are busy demonizing t…

I hope the price goes close to 0 so I can buy it all up.

Re: Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Author of Black Swan, on Bitcoin

#44

This utopian streak running through the crypto community is what convinces me most that it’s going to be a heartbreaker. > But Hayek used the notion of distributed knowledge. Well, it looks like we do not even need that thing called knowledge for things to work well. Nor do we need individual rationality. All we need is structure. Irrational exuberance is a good thing! And while these ideologues are busy demonizing t…

I honestly hope the utopian dream is smashed in the cryptocurrency community. It's not the kind of "utopia" I want to be a part of. I like the technical ideas behind cryptocurrency, but the terrible political views are off-putting.

Re: Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Author of Black Swan, on Bitcoin

#45
post #8

I always feel bad when I read some of Taleb's work and come away empty. The guy is clearly smart, but I feel like he skips too many steps in his mental algebra and then misses his own mistakes altogether too often. >This gives us, the crowd, an insurance policy against an Orwellian future. Here's a great example. Does it really, Nassim?

I think he just isn't a very good communicator (nor cares to be one). He was recently a guest at the excellent podcast Econtalk and you really needed to know his ideas from other sources to properly understand what he was talking about.

I don't think is arrogance or anything, it is just a skill that he doesn't have naturally and also doesn't care enough to practice and improve.

I think his ideas are strong enough to find an audience even without this skill. Contrasting him with a Malcolm Gladwell who, imo, reaches a large audience much more from his communication skills than from the power of this ideas, I think I prefer Taleb's style.

Re: Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Author of Black Swan, on Bitcoin

#46

This utopian streak running through the crypto community is what convinces me most that it’s going to be a heartbreaker. > But Hayek used the notion of distributed knowledge. Well, it looks like we do not even need that thing called knowledge for things to work well. Nor do we need individual rationality. All we need is structure. Irrational exuberance is a good thing! And while these ideologues are busy demonizing t…

I feel like you could say the exact same thing about democracy

Re: Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Author of Black Swan, on Bitcoin

#47
post #20
post #10

I hope Bitcoin perseveres. I missed the boat on buying it when it was valued at ~$200 USD. I am more into the decentralization of currency. I don't buy the fear-mongering. And today, I am even more resolved. Bank of America rejected my father trying to deposit $250 USD cash into my account at a local branch while I was out of town. They made him go home to get his checkbook to write a check (money order was an option…

I see many people complaining about the banking system (often for a good reason) and mention cryptocurrencies as an alternative but I'm not sure I see it. Take your anecdote for instance, what would be the equivalent in the crypto world? If you actually need to deposit fiat you'll have to use an exchange and it's basically the same problem (good luck getting an exchange to accept $250 in cash). Of course the whole th…

There are plenty of local services for you to exchange cash for BTC. Yes, very big exchange rate, but you can find these easily enough.

Re: Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Author of Black Swan, on Bitcoin

#48
post #30
post #8

I always feel bad when I read some of Taleb's work and come away empty. The guy is clearly smart, but I feel like he skips too many steps in his mental algebra and then misses his own mistakes altogether too often. >This gives us, the crowd, an insurance policy against an Orwellian future. Here's a great example. Does it really, Nassim?

>I always feel bad when I read some of Taleb's work and come away empty Took the words right out of my mouth. His recent thoughts/tweets on Deep Learning were even more confusing.

Taleb is a deeply intuitive, sharp individual - this is his weakness.

Like all the smart kids in school who rushed through math problems and wrote out the final answer rather than all the work to get there, he often skips key steps in his chain of reasoning. Since he skips them, he doesn't notice when those key steps are demonstrably wrong.

I feel he's gotten worse in this respect over time.

Re: Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Author of Black Swan, on Bitcoin

#49

This utopian streak running through the crypto community is what convinces me most that it’s going to be a heartbreaker. > But Hayek used the notion of distributed knowledge. Well, it looks like we do not even need that thing called knowledge for things to work well. Nor do we need individual rationality. All we need is structure. Irrational exuberance is a good thing! And while these ideologues are busy demonizing t…

There is a distinct difference between some pump and dump strategy and a central bank printing a ton of currency. One has a temporary effect on supply and demand for the instrument in question, the other has a permanent effect.

Re: Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Author of Black Swan, on Bitcoin

#50
post #20
post #10

I hope Bitcoin perseveres. I missed the boat on buying it when it was valued at ~$200 USD. I am more into the decentralization of currency. I don't buy the fear-mongering. And today, I am even more resolved. Bank of America rejected my father trying to deposit $250 USD cash into my account at a local branch while I was out of town. They made him go home to get his checkbook to write a check (money order was an option…

I see many people complaining about the banking system (often for a good reason) and mention cryptocurrencies as an alternative but I'm not sure I see it. Take your anecdote for instance, what would be the equivalent in the crypto world? If you actually need to deposit fiat you'll have to use an exchange and it's basically the same problem (good luck getting an exchange to accept $250 in cash). Of course the whole th…

I think the notion of banking won't go away, but today's concept of a bank will: no more physical locations, ATMs, wire-transfers that cost $30, etc. Maybe opening an account will be as easy as getting an email address (at least for the user anyways).
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