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Europe’s central banks are starting to replace dollar reserves with the yuan

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Re: Europe’s central banks are starting to replace dollar reserves with the yuan

#91

Post by leemailll »

seanmcdirmid wrote: post #17
mc32 wrote: post #7

I like Japan --I think for a mid-sized country they have done well for themselves... but their representation in foreign reserves is a bit outsized. The Yuan, given China's economic strength, has nowhere to go but up. We'll have to see how European Central banks like that in 10-20 years when they exert more influence on policy.

The yuan is not convertible, like the yen, dollar, and euro are. It doesn’t float, it’s exchange rate is set by fiat. When the yuan is actually traded in the wild, then it will move a few steps closer. I don’t think the government will ever let it get stronger than 6 rmb/usd, it would absolutely ruin their exports.

>it’s exchange rate is set by fiat.

Trade might be controlled, but definitely not flat http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=USD&to=CNY&view=10Y

Re: Europe’s central banks are starting to replace dollar reserves with the yuan

#92

Post by coldtea »

ben_w wrote: post #40
latch wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

1. Like many countries, China has long been relevant. Like many countries, China has long been gaining relevance. 2. Because they shouldn't If instead of treating global economy as a zero-sum game, and if we backed off from the fear mongering and admitted that China's economic growth has largely (and unsurprisingly) been to most people's benefits, then we'd welcome the competition and innovation and productivity that…

Religious persecution doesn’t disappear just because of economic growth. Neither does discrimination against sexual preferences (+). That’s the fear expressed above. (+) unless you limit your knowledge of sexual preferences to just gay/straight — human sexuality is much more complicated than that.

>Religious persecution doesn’t disappear just because of economic growth. Neither does discrimination against sexual preferences (+). That’s the fear expressed above.

The hypocrisy of a country that props constant wars all around the globe, has bombed/invaded 3-4 countries in the last 20 years alone, and constant meddling and manipulations of other governments for its "interests", that had segregation up to the 70s, the worlds largest prison populations by a huge margin, with routine police shootings in the 10x of any other country, pointing the finger to another country for "religious persecution" and "discrimination against sexual preferences" (which itself until 2000 or so had laws declaring "illegal" in many states, and even now has a good 40% or more of the population considering them immoral and believing in all kinds of Bible crap), never ceases to amaze...

Re: Europe’s central banks are starting to replace dollar reserves with the yuan

#93

Post by coldtea »

chvid wrote: post #88
cabalamat wrote: post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China may be different. Their planned social credit reputation system, coupled with ubiquitous surveillance, may make it impossible for public opinion in China to force the Chinese government to liberalise. In the past, the West has had a massive advantage because: (1) their econpomic system was better than everyone else's, and (2) in order to modernise, other cultures have had to adopt some of the West's characteris…

Maybe. But china’s overall path is towards more democracy and civil liberty. Compare tianamen square 30 years ago with the handling of the Hong Kong protests.

Or, maybe, compare Tianamen square with Kent state, the Chicago '68 democratic convention, and so on.

Re: Europe’s central banks are starting to replace dollar reserves with the yuan

#94

Post by coldtea »

ben_w wrote: post #73
chvid wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Actually it does - history is full of examples of just that. As the middle class grows in economic terms, it grows in political influence and the overall values of the society changes to accommodate that class. Introduction of democracy and women’s rights in Europe are good examples.

> Introduction of democracy and women’s rights in Europe are good examples. Which is why I said “religious” and “sexual preference”. Jews were widely discriminated against even a few years after WW2; Muslims are a current whipping-boy; I’m not sure if Catholic-vs-Protestant is as big a divide in Northern Ireland as it looks from the outside, but it does look big; In the USA, Atheists are almost as disliked as Muslims…

Well, if the biggest problem is some bizarro religions and BSDM are frowned upon / deemed illegal so be it

Re: Europe’s central banks are starting to replace dollar reserves with the yuan

#95

Post by seanmcdirmid »

leemailll wrote: post #91
seanmcdirmid wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The yuan is not convertible, like the yen, dollar, and euro are. It doesn’t float, it’s exchange rate is set by fiat. When the yuan is actually traded in the wild, then it will move a few steps closer. I don’t think the government will ever let it get stronger than 6 rmb/usd, it would absolutely ruin their exports.

>it’s exchange rate is set by fiat. Trade might be controlled, but definitely not flat http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=USD&to=CNY&view=10Y

They directly adjust the exchange rate each day, it is not set by the market. There is a market based rate in Hong Kong for RMB (referred to as CNH), but it necessarily closely follows the government rate.

Re: Europe’s central banks are starting to replace dollar reserves with the yuan

#96

Post by akhatri_aus »

kylell wrote: post #71
akhatri_aus wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> export your inflation in the world Which country has the US exported its inflation to? Venezuela? Apologies for the tongue-in-cheek but even an economist would not be able to reconcile why there isn't really any inflation amongst the major economies.

When you print money you devalue existing money, if the holders of the existing money keep holding it, keep trusting it, the devaluation is much smaller. The inflation if visible in asset prices, eg. a painting would sell for half a billion dollar, all these companies being evaluated at billions of dollars, now holding billions of $ as state reserve doesn't look so big anymore.

> When you print money you devalue existing money

Unless those billions in asset price increases buy less consumables than they did before QE, there isn't any inflation in the US yet, it just means Americans are richer.

Re: Europe’s central banks are starting to replace dollar reserves with the yuan

#97

Post by cageface »

herbst wrote: post #87
mtgx wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's only a shame that it has to be a country like China that rises up at US' expense, rather than say Switzerland, Germany, Sweden, etc. What happens to global human rights when it's China that has an oversized influence on world politics and when countries start easily accepting extraditions to China (say for criticizing the Chinese leader, which could be a crime there), and many other outcomes like that? US' track…

> but at least if you discount US' human rights violations in the Middle East Can we not just discount the issues with china then as well? I think the one big difference here is that nobody expects china to invade their country, violate human rights within their own country or put pressure on their local politics for various reasons (other than random trade agreements maybe). All things nearly everyone pretty much ex…

China has figured out that economic invasion is a lot cheaper and more effective than bombing. Sadly the US still seems to be a long way from learning this lesson.

But if you think China doesn't exert pressure in other countries' politics you haven't spent much time in Asia, particularly SE Asia.

Re: Europe’s central banks are starting to replace dollar reserves with the yuan

#98

Post by rayiner »

chvid wrote: post #56
ben_w wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Religious persecution doesn’t disappear just because of economic growth. Neither does discrimination against sexual preferences (+). That’s the fear expressed above. (+) unless you limit your knowledge of sexual preferences to just gay/straight — human sexuality is much more complicated than that.

Actually it does - history is full of examples of just that. As the middle class grows in economic terms, it grows in political influence and the overall values of the society changes to accommodate that class. Introduction of democracy and women’s rights in Europe are good examples.

Many of the rights we consider intrinsic to modern society, due process, etc., didn’t arise in Europe in respond to the rise of a middle class. In the Anglo tradition, they date back 800 years to the Magna Carta.

Re: Europe’s central banks are starting to replace dollar reserves with the yuan

#99

Post by TheSpiceIsLife »

coldtea wrote: post #92
ben_w wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Religious persecution doesn’t disappear just because of economic growth. Neither does discrimination against sexual preferences (+). That’s the fear expressed above. (+) unless you limit your knowledge of sexual preferences to just gay/straight — human sexuality is much more complicated than that.

> Religious persecution doesn’t disappear just because of economic growth. Neither does discrimination against sexual preferences (+). That’s the fear expressed above. The hypocrisy of a country that props constant wars all around the globe, has bombed/invaded 3-4 countries in the last 20 years alone, and constant meddling and manipulations of other governments for its "interests", that had segregation up to the 70s,…

Can you imagine China having a government shutdown?

Re: Europe’s central banks are starting to replace dollar reserves with the yuan

#100

Post by anc84 »

ksec wrote: post #80
xir78 wrote: post #3

A few years ago I couldn’t tell you the name of a Chinese company off the top of my head, now I can not only rattle of a list, they’re companies I’ve worked with or have significant investments in companies in the US. I also have a roster of WeChat contacts. I also work with multiple ex-pats that fled fearing for their life due to persecution based on their religion (Falung Gong), and laugh at how freaked people are…

>about an insignificant Trump compared to a truly vicious government Which is true. But most US citizen doesn't realize how their system, while extremely bureaucratic in nature, protect real bad things from happening. There both have upside and downside. Only History will tell.

* causes real bad things to happen

Fixed that for you. Do I need to get the CIA and various wars lists from Wikipedia?

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