I'm going to be honest, I need an ELI5 here. I know what the meltdown/spectre issues are, and kinda understand what retpoline is.
1) Recent patch submissions imply that Intel has no good hardware or microcode mitigation for spectre-like attacks. There is a sub-complaint that Intel has a bad (i.e. kills performance) fix, but will not enable it by default because benchmarks matter.
2) This series of patches in particular appears to be doing either something different, or more than what their descriptions imply
These patches do various things, presumably to manipulate the opaque internal state of the CPU, but only Intel knows for sure precisely what they do.