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Why People Dislike Really Smart Leaders

scientificamerican.com

231–240 of 336 posts

Re: Why People Dislike Really Smart Leaders

#231

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My understanding of economic history, including the 1870s (but many other busts, too), is quite different. Can you cite a source? I happen to be reading "A History of The World Economy", by James Foreman-Pack. It contradicts you at every turn (Chapter 6 esp) and notes there was a time when the U.S. was the odd man out, lacking a national bank and suffered more severe downturns than other nations, amongst other things…

"And the Reserve System, established in response to monetary instability, had the power to exercise deliberate control over the stock of money and so could take advantage of this possibility to promote monetary stability. That conjecture is not in accord with what actually happened. As is clear to the naked eye in Chart 1, the stock of money shows larger fluctuations after 1914 than before 1914 and this is true even…

You've changed the subject, sir.

No period (before 1914) is given by Friedman. This matters because, as my source is careful to say, a remarkably rigid system of international currency exchange rates had been formed before the WWI. This wasn't an accomplishment of the U.S., nor was it entirely safe, wise, or productive.

Of course, rather by definition, if multiple currencies are all convertible to gold (as they were pre-1914) they rise and fall in exact sync with each other with every whim of the gold market, every gold discovery, etc - until one falls off the cliff and has to renounce conversion - but that hardly means no whiplash!! In fact it means countries are less insulated from each other's economic troubles, more of a monoculture than a robust ecosystem - and, as stated, every country's economy is whipped about by anything that changes how easy it is to get gold out of the ground or increases or decreases consumption of it, including fashion and improvements in dental technology. Also, even the severest depression won't be reflected in the exchange rates. And it was those downturns, that were the topic.

Stable exchange rates have a trade-off; and they certainly don't prove economic stability or the absence of downturns at all. It's more like watching a team of acrobatic aircraft: they all maintain their wingtip distance strictly, and that's fine: but if one plane goes into the ground, they all do. Being in close formation isn't a proof you're not headed for a mountain or the ground; because it's not the kind of stability that has anything to do with that most important risk. Ditto rigid exchange rates.

What changed in 1914 was war. There was no intellectual decision that gold convertibility was unfashionable - war breeds inflation, necessity made conversion a hindrance to the war efforts. That international confusion (and therefore the resultant fluctuations in currency exchange rates worldwide) wasn't created by the American decision to have a central bank, for goodness sake. If anything the arrow of causation went the other way.

If Milton finds it hard to believe that the war-to-end-all-wars might have caused a wee bit of currency turbulence, so it had to be the U.S. finally creating a Federal Banking Institution that did that all over the world, he's rather isolated in that position. But of course, he's slyly leaving that leap into the abyss for the reader to make.

Re: Why People Dislike Really Smart Leaders

#232
post #55
post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> the economy would run better (i.e. free market) without their "help". As if boom and bust business cycles aren't a thing in free markets. Or monopolies. Or monetary policy. Or externalized costs. Or tragedy of the commons. That's just run of the mill anti-intellectualism.

If putting economists in charge somehow curtails monopolies, externalised costs, tragedies of the commons and boom and bust business cycles then someone really should sit down and get that news out there. Nothing I've heard suggests economists outperform a healthy democratic process. Monetary policy is one that is more up for debate - it seems reasonable that it can have a positive effect on gdp, but something has de…

> If putting economists in charge somehow curtails monopolies, externalised costs, tragedies of the commons and boom and bust business cycles then someone really should sit down and get that news out there. Nothing I've heard suggests economists outperform a healthy democratic process.

You think those concepts came out of democracy popping a macroeconomics book out of a vote?

Re: Why People Dislike Really Smart Leaders

#233

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"And the Reserve System, established in response to monetary instability, had the power to exercise deliberate control over the stock of money and so could take advantage of this possibility to promote monetary stability. That conjecture is not in accord with what actually happened. As is clear to the naked eye in Chart 1, the stock of money shows larger fluctuations after 1914 than before 1914 and this is true even…

You've changed the subject, sir. No period (before 1914) is given by Friedman. This matters because, as my source is careful to say, a remarkably rigid system of international currency exchange rates had been formed before the WWI. This wasn't an accomplishment of the U.S., nor was it entirely safe, wise, or productive. Of course, rather by definition, if multiple currencies are all convertible to gold (as they were…

What changed in 1914 was going from gold backed money to fiat money controlled by a central bank.

> and has to renounce conversion

This problem only happens in a fiat money system. It notably happened in 1930 in the US.

Re: Why People Dislike Really Smart Leaders

#234

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You've changed the subject, sir. No period (before 1914) is given by Friedman. This matters because, as my source is careful to say, a remarkably rigid system of international currency exchange rates had been formed before the WWI. This wasn't an accomplishment of the U.S., nor was it entirely safe, wise, or productive. Of course, rather by definition, if multiple currencies are all convertible to gold (as they were…

What changed in 1914 was going from gold backed money to fiat money controlled by a central bank. > and has to renounce conversion This problem only happens in a fiat money system. It notably happened in 1930 in the US.

There was a world-wide change in 1914 that blew apart the previous rigid system of currency exchange. The U.S. followed suit, but under any scheme at all the exchange rates of its currency would have been more unstable because the previous stability between all currencies was gone, whatever the U.S. chose.

Nixon renounced conversion to go to a fiat system. That's what renouncing conversion means, to abandon conversion, leaving only the fiat. You are agreeing strenuously.

And again, all this a whole other topic than whether downturns were more or less frequent: which was where I started.

Re: Why People Dislike Really Smart Leaders

#235

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If by "smart" you mean arrogant urban sophisticates who think very highly of their own intelligence then you're probably right.

Or it could mean more cosmopolitan dwellers who understand living in a connected, diverse world that's always changing better than your average rural dweller.

How would they identify that quality enough to dislike it? I'll tell you how: the smugness.

Re: Why People Dislike Really Smart Leaders

#236
post #133

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Your definition of intelligence is quite unorthodox and so is idea that brilliance somehow excludes suicide or risk taking or over confidence - all things that can make you loose big time. Hitler ability to speak was not luck. It was work, skill and talent. And world did not just spontaneously arranged itself for them to get power, Hitler took a lot of calculated deeps to make it so, it is not like he was only one tr…

Hitler was perhaps one of the stupidest people to ever grace the history books, and managed to wipe out vast numbers of his own people, including himself, in a completely pointless war of his own making, wherein he managed to make enemies of three of the most powerful entities in the world at that time.

The alternative was a Germany as vassal state under crippling WWI reparations and a failing economy. The war was not "pointless" even if it ultimately failed in its goals.

I'm not defending his ideology, but its important to understand the rational reasons behind his decisions if we want to prevent another global catastrophe. Even without Hitler its still likely Germany would have instigated fighting at some point.

Re: Why People Dislike Really Smart Leaders

#237
post #55
post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> the economy would run better (i.e. free market) without their "help". As if boom and bust business cycles aren't a thing in free markets. Or monopolies. Or monetary policy. Or externalized costs. Or tragedy of the commons. That's just run of the mill anti-intellectualism.

If putting economists in charge somehow curtails monopolies, externalised costs, tragedies of the commons and boom and bust business cycles then someone really should sit down and get that news out there. Nothing I've heard suggests economists outperform a healthy democratic process. Monetary policy is one that is more up for debate - it seems reasonable that it can have a positive effect on gdp, but something has de…

Could you explain more what your second paragraph means? I think I’m missing some background information. But, I’m really interested in what you have to say.

As for your last paragraph, which things in the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index don’t you buy? I just just read though the list of items in the PCE, and it seems like stuff we all buy.

https://www.bea.gov/about/pdf/1106_ACM_PCE.pdf

Also, I’m not clear on how this is much different from what economists attempt to do: create models and test them with data.

Re: Why People Dislike Really Smart Leaders

#238

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"And the Reserve System, established in response to monetary instability, had the power to exercise deliberate control over the stock of money and so could take advantage of this possibility to promote monetary stability. That conjecture is not in accord with what actually happened. As is clear to the naked eye in Chart 1, the stock of money shows larger fluctuations after 1914 than before 1914 and this is true even…

The idea that "the stock of money" is a real, objective thing is rank insanity. The idea that this "stock of money" should magically be constant makes even less sense. There is no stock of money. There are only political decisions, assorted client and patron relationships, and national and international conflicts among interest groups that define social goals and resource distribution. Money is political power counte…

First sentence: True - and neglected in our time, but not, I think by the originator of the concept. He did set a lot of store by "animal spirits," and these very strongly affect "the money supply" in the following ways:

The usual multiplier of funds in a bank assumes that the depositors will regard their banked money as still theirs and available. But note that this is actually the OPPOSITE of the thinking of my grandparents, who lived through the great depression. To them, the largest single reason to put money in a bank was precisely to forget about it; and to piously treat it as now beyond their reach and ability to spend because it was now part of a sacred reserve. A very deflationary logic since it brings down the effective banking multiplier of the money supply (reflected by spending) sharply. And this is indeed what happens after a recession, and a kind of thinking that's still with us, post 2008.

Of course, changes in sexual selection are also a large part of this. Young women and men shifted from being very interested in free spenders of the opposite sex (as a proof of money) before 2008 to being much less interested in being married to a free spender, thanks. Where I live, I was woken by revelers in the early morning leaving the fanciest downtown bars blocks away until 2008 at least a couple of times a week, for years. In all the years since that crisis, those extreme revelers have only very rarely been heard from by me. Despite my being a much less sound sleeper, now. Here too, sexual selection shifts post-crisis to a logic that's closer to bank-it-and-don't-think-about-it. (Debt accumulation, say on credit cards, may contradict me by now, however.)

Re: Why People Dislike Really Smart Leaders

#240

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't know. Why do we push files to production on a Friday evening? Why do we snipe hot-fixes into production via FTP? Because we are all crazy & lazy bums, I would guess.

if you have the monitoring in place, and you have done proper canarying, friday evenings are not terrible

and if you have someone else on call, Friday evenings are perfectly fine

:p

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