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It can all go to zero

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321–330 of 361 posts

Re: It can all go to zero

#321

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sure. It's an overvalued, speculative commodity in a bubble. Ostensibly a currency, but without any of the useful features of a currency (effectively unusable for common transactions due to high fees, slow transaction confirmation rates, and highly unstable value). As a currency, assuming that its value stabilized, it suffers from being deflationary which will impede its ability to survive as either a global currency…

You are missing a lot of things. Like it's not just economic. Also your argument talks about bitcoin but not the other cryptocurrencies that might not have the some of the features you describe. > Sure. It's an overvalued, speculative commodity in a bubble. Overvalued compared with what? Speculative is an opinion. > Ostensibly a currency, but without any of the useful features of a currency With a fundamentally diffe…

> Also your argument talks about bitcoin but not the other cryptocurrencies that might not have the some of the features you describe.

You asked me to explain bitcoin, I did.

> Overvalued compared with what? Speculative is an opinion.

Overvalued compared to its utility as a currency, which is what it ostensibly is. As a currency it presently has no value because the overall BTC valuation is so high and so unstable, paired with the transaction fees and delays.

Speculation is not an opinion here. Look at how many people are "investing" in it with no comprehension of what it is and what it does.

> Like being able to exchange with literally anyone in the world is unprecedented.

For all practical purposes I can exchange Euros and US dollars with anyone in the world, modulo a few countries that have stricter and enforced policies. I was in Uruguay last July and was able to use USD at shops because the other option was credit card (exchange rate set at the end of the day) or ARS (cash on hand) and the exchange rate was better with the posted USD->UYU was better than either of those (as long as I used at least a $20 bill). No questions asked, they just took it and I got the goods I wanted.

> I can trade with North Korea with it.

I will agree that it does eliminate or reduce the effectiveness of economic sanctions in some situations, like this one. However, if you're a US citizen conducting business with NK is still illegal or tightly controlled, and bitcoin is only pseudonymous. And with regard to opening up financial interactions with people across borders, that is a potentially very useful thing. But at the moment it is not a feasible thing with bitcoin.

> The backing part of commodities is greatly exaggerated. Who cares?

The people seeking profit off of them. If a commodity doesn't have something behind it, its value will fall. When it will fall can be a while in the future depending on the general hype and/or confidence. Bitcoin is all hope, no real confidence, and no real utility (at present).

> You talk about BTC but like BTC is not the end all.

You asked about bitcoin, I answered about bitcoin.

> As a trading instrument it's so much better than stock. With stock you have to wait three days. I guess the closest is Forex but forex is just so boring.

Three days? Three days for what? And better in what way? In the "I enjoy rollercoasters" sense? Then sure, it's better that way. At least with stocks (or the ones I invest in) I can examine the fundamentals of a company, the global and national economies they play in, and have some idea of whether they're overvalued or undervalued at any given time with ease. Most Forex is the same.

Bitcoin, the thing you asked about, is not useful as a currency. So it's only useful, right now, as a commodity and in trading on various exchanges as a commodity. It is pure speculation until the value on those exchanges and the value of things I can purchase with are closer together than they are today.

Re: It can all go to zero

#322
post #289

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Drug prices don't dip when the government outlaws them. If anything, the need to outlaw crypto validates their utility.

Drugs have a purpose beyond trade, cryptocurrency doesn’t. Make it illegal to sell, and there’s no reason to buy it.

Make alcohol illegal to sell and there's no reason to buy it. Got it!

Re: It can all go to zero

#323
post #166

There are so many glaring issues with BitCoin that it's insane that there are people who are dumb enough to buy it at these prices. 1) 96% of it is controlled by 4% of people. That means if it were to become a currency 96% of the wealth in the world would have to be given to 4% of people either through goods or a fiat currency. 2) It's just a matter of time before enough people lose their private keys that the total…

But US wealth is controlled by less than 1%. So, what is the difference

Wealth is not primarily held as currency, and currency has inflation.

Re: It can all go to zero

#324
post #172
post #33

Time for the monthly cryptocurrency panic thread. While I fully agree that most cryptocurrencies are grossly overvalued, these articles always pretend a 20% selloff is the beginning of the end, when, in crypto land, 20% selloffs are a pretty standard bad day for the market.

"Panic", "liquidity crisis", "run" -- when the end comes, it's always much, much faster than players in the market had imagined until that point. What will happen is that animal spirits will change, and liquidity will slowly recede. At some point many market players will say, "Yes crypto has value, but I prefer to hold more dollars for the time being." Price levels drop and volatility increases, and the feeling compo…

Yup, as volatility increases and prices fall more and more exchanges are going to halt transactions or just go offline because it's not worth it for them. It's going to get harder and harder to get dollars for bitcoins. And the transaction backlog is going to make people lose their minds. People will decide they want to get out and they'll try to sell, but that's just the start of a process Meanwhile, processing fees are going up and up and up because people who want to lock in their returns are going to pay a premium to get out as early as they can. And, of course, because the cash-dollar value of those processing fees will be in freefall and miners are going to "prefer to hold more of their wealth in dollars" as well. That's going to devolve into a really ugly feedback loop. People are going to be increasingly incentivized to get out early to avoid an even worse rush with higher fees later, and they are going to pay high fees for the same reason. It's going to be a mess.

Re: It can all go to zero

#325
post #121

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People who see and call out bubbles are always wrong N-1 times where N is the number of times a prediction is made. Look at the fundamentals. What we have here is a bad currency (volatile and deflationary) whose utility is diminishing as its price increases. There aren't a lot of value investors in cryptocurrency at this point. The vast majority of the people who hold it are holding it on the theory that it will cont…

> Most people look at price charts in linear not logarithmic mode Do you have any tools you recommend that make it easy to see these logarithmic charts?

Tradingview

Re: It can all go to zero

#326
post #312

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Here's how this comment sounds: "I don't understand what a run is, but somehow I'm pretty sure it's bullshit. I don't understand how economics works, but I'm pretty sure all the rules have been rewritten in some unspecified way that makes bitcoin invulnerable, and I'm in a better position to know this than people who actually have the understanding that I'm rejecting. My ignorance, which I have no burden to dispel, i…

I understand what a run is, and like, is this high school economics or something? I just dont think that it entirely matches a run. You could say that same thing about stock. I'm not saying all economics, but some currently held believes might be generalized. Also what exactly do you think is the required knowledge for this? Just economics? If so, you are off.

> I understand what a run is, and like, is this high school economics or something?

Yeah, we could start there. So what's a run and what causes it? Still waiting.

Re: It can all go to zero

#327
post #317
post #169

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Appeal to authority is a logical fallacy--you cannot use appeal to authority to create a rigorous argument. I agree with that. But you can gain some idea of probability that something is correct or incorrect. For example, if 99 of 100 doctors agree that vaccines do not cause autism, that does not necessarily mean that vaccines do not cause autism. But chances are really good that the 99% of doctors are correct. Nice…

Saying 99/100 doctors think something medical is true isn't an appeal to authority... Doctors /are/ an authority on medical matters. Programmers aren't an authority on economic matters.

That is exactly an appeal to authority and logical fallacy. It doesn't mean it isn't a helpful short cut in decision making, but it is logically incorrect. There was a point in time when enough scienticians believed that the world was flat. Regardless of their expert belief and number, the world was not flat, nor was it the centre of the universe. Facts remain regardless of what 99/100 people believe.

Re: It can all go to zero

#328

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You are missing a lot of things. Like it's not just economic. Also your argument talks about bitcoin but not the other cryptocurrencies that might not have the some of the features you describe. > Sure. It's an overvalued, speculative commodity in a bubble. Overvalued compared with what? Speculative is an opinion. > Ostensibly a currency, but without any of the useful features of a currency With a fundamentally diffe…

> Also your argument talks about bitcoin but not the other cryptocurrencies that might not have the some of the features you describe. You asked me to explain bitcoin, I did. > Overvalued compared with what? Speculative is an opinion. Overvalued compared to its utility as a currency, which is what it ostensibly is. As a currency it presently has no value because the overall BTC valuation is so high and so unstable, p…

> Overvalued compared to its utility as a currency, which is what it ostensibly is.

It's not just a currency. It's part stock, part currency, part forex, part world of warcraft money, part political movement, part programming platform, part distributed database etc etc. Like the number of categories it fits into is a lot.

Ok talk about ethereum. Does ethereum have intrinsic value?

> Look at how many people are "investing" in it with no comprehension of what it is and what it does.

Is everyone investing into bitcoin speculating? Is possible that some people know what it is and still want to invest?

> But at the moment it is not a feasible thing with bitcoin.

That was an extreme example.

> Bitcoin is all hope, no real confidence, and no real utility (at present).

Ok, lets talk about other crypto.

> You asked about bitcoin, I answered about bitcoin.

OK can you answer the same questions for other cryptos not just Bitcoin?

Re: It can all go to zero

#329

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Also your argument talks about bitcoin but not the other cryptocurrencies that might not have the some of the features you describe. You asked me to explain bitcoin, I did. > Overvalued compared with what? Speculative is an opinion. Overvalued compared to its utility as a currency, which is what it ostensibly is. As a currency it presently has no value because the overall BTC valuation is so high and so unstable, p…

> Overvalued compared to its utility as a currency, which is what it ostensibly is. It's not just a currency. It's part stock, part currency, part forex, part world of warcraft money, part political movement, part programming platform, part distributed database etc etc. Like the number of categories it fits into is a lot. Ok talk about ethereum. Does ethereum have intrinsic value? > Look at how many people are "inves…

> OK can you answer the same questions for other cryptos not just Bitcoin?

Nah. You'll just be dissatisfied and ask me to answer other questions.

Re: It can all go to zero

#330
post #233

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Think of it this way. Let's say that to get 1 Bitcoin I could just install an app on my computer, and within 1 second get a Bitcoin. Then everyone in the world can make as many bitcoins as they want, there are no limits on the number of bitcoins, and the process to get more doesn't increase in difficulty. So now we have bascially infinite bitcoins so the value of them is zero, because why would I buy one, when I can…

I don't think the value of an asset is derived purely from scarcity, or the effort required to make it. What if the asset itself has no use? If I spend 1000 hours making a really bad doesn't, it'll have a value of zero, even though it's unique and a lot of work was put into it. I haven't created value, I've destroyed it, I.e. All that time and nothing to show for it.

I'm not asserting that scarcity or effort alone create value, but without those two components you won't have value.

So not everything that is limited is valuable, however everything that is valuable is limited.

Just imagine if someone figured out how to engineer gold out of thin air, the value of gold would drop instantly.

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