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Bitcoin Fall Extends to 25% as Fears of Crackdown Linger

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Re: Bitcoin Fall Extends to 25% as Fears of Crackdown Linger

#191
post #75

It doesn’t help that every news organization in the world is talking about bitcoin and even worse, some of these people are predicting $100,000 price tags. Who wouldn’t want a 6x return from the peak?

$100,000? No, James Altucher is predicting $1 million / Bitcoin!!! https://www.cnbc.com/2017/11/29/james-altucher-predicts-bitc...

Re: Bitcoin Fall Extends to 25% as Fears of Crackdown Linger

#193

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is naive of Buffet when his only evidence of a "bad ending" is the existence of a massive rally. The entire near-future automated economy depends on programmable money. There is literally nothing interesting happening in FinTech right now apart from the crypto space.

Why should Bitcoin cost so much just because the future may depend on it? That's a good case for why it will continue to exist, but it could also exist and do it's job at $1.00 / btc. I think it's a couple of things that Buffett is looking at. First, like gold, Bitcoin is not a business and does not produce earnings. Second, people seem to be buying it for no other reason than that they think it'll keep going up. Tha…

Because the price of any currency is proportional to GDP/velocity, and since it's costly to exchange cryptocurrency with fiat, there's a limit to how high the velocity can go.

Re: Bitcoin Fall Extends to 25% as Fears of Crackdown Linger

#194
So let me get this straight. Gold can be compared to bitcoins in terms of scarcity and and store of value. But bitcoin itself is in practical term a proof of concept technology that is only useful when applied properly in another block chain. While gold actually has great uses. Can i say if you are investing in bitcoin, you are basically investing in equivalent a scarce physical paper with not a whole lot of use?

Re: Bitcoin Fall Extends to 25% as Fears of Crackdown Linger

#195

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is naive of Buffet when his only evidence of a "bad ending" is the existence of a massive rally. The entire near-future automated economy depends on programmable money. There is literally nothing interesting happening in FinTech right now apart from the crypto space.

“entire near-future automated economy depends on programmable money” It also depends on banks and states signing up to that vision. We have seen zero adoption on that front. On top of that, it still does not explain the hundreds of alt coins.

Banks are rapidly trying to adopt the use of blockchain.

Re: Bitcoin Fall Extends to 25% as Fears of Crackdown Linger

#196
post #132
post #106

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And how many members do you know of each, in absolute terms?

What matters is the ratio: 1 to 10 only thinking about the closest ones.

Sure, but a 1000% higher likelihood is close to meaningless if we’re talking about extremely tiny fractions in absolute terms. For example, a substance that increases your baseline risk of some type of cancer from 0.000003% to 0.00003% is basically imperceptible in a population of 300M people. That’s 90 incidents instead of 9 incidents out of the entire United States.

You don’t have to tell me exact figures for how many people you personally know in each category, but my point is that if both figures are sufficiently small in absolute terms then the example is meaningless.

Re: Bitcoin Fall Extends to 25% as Fears of Crackdown Linger

#197

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What’s also different is few individuals/entities in South Korea and elsewhere are responsible for driving the value upstream. Anything that is manipulated does not last long. As somebody wise (Buffet) once said this will have a bad ending.

This is naive of Buffet when his only evidence of a "bad ending" is the existence of a massive rally. The entire near-future automated economy depends on programmable money. There is literally nothing interesting happening in FinTech right now apart from the crypto space.

Fiat currency is already programmable.

Re: Bitcoin Fall Extends to 25% as Fears of Crackdown Linger

#198
post #94

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I love bitcoin and cryptocurrency as potential solutions to problems with gov-controlled currencies (I've used crypto to buy drugs, for example). But I'm still confused why people refer to purchasing currency as an "investment." Obviously the rates are going up now, but doesn't everyone expect them to just come back down? I don't convert my USD to Yen and call it an "investment."

Well, there is actual forex investing (speculating). For instance, the value of the USD versus the Argentine Peso (ARS) is something I track (my girlfriend lives there and long term I would consider moving there, current plan is for her to move here). The USD to ARS conversion is increasingly favorable for the USD, the buying power of ARS hasn't dropped significantly (in country) but the USD is worth more ARS now tha…

I believe strongly that the word 'invest' should be used to distinguish one's activities from speculation, rather than be a superclass of it. Discourse is poisoned when people promote semantic overlap and create ambiguity, rather than using words to create meaningful distinctions.

Investing is what you do when you're not merely speculating on short-term returns, but are instead focused on long-term value creation. It is right to call it currency speculation, because instead of investing capital to create sustainable growth in something, you're just skimming the fluctuations using massive leverage.

Re: Bitcoin Fall Extends to 25% as Fears of Crackdown Linger

#199
post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What do you mean "no reason"? Supply and demand are the reasons the prices are shaped the way they are. It's a near perfect market.

What is the P/E ratio of Bitcoin? There is none. So there is no rational basis for any price. $1 is as valid as $1 million. There is no traditional way to analyze this investment and figure out its real worth. To the limited extent that Bitcoin helps Chinese citizens out-maneuver the capital controls that the Chinese government has tried to enforce, then it could be analyzed as a shadow of the Chinese currency, but s…

Bitcoin isn’t a stock that has earnings. They are more like gold or silver. The usefulness + scarcity should determine its price. Right now people are buying because other people are buying, and a whole lot o hype

Re: Bitcoin Fall Extends to 25% as Fears of Crackdown Linger

#200

Earlier quoted context omitted.

“entire near-future automated economy depends on programmable money” It also depends on banks and states signing up to that vision. We have seen zero adoption on that front. On top of that, it still does not explain the hundreds of alt coins.

Banks are rapidly trying to adopt the use of blockchain.

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