161–170 of 371 posts
BTC is still above 10K. Think about that for a while. I remember 500 like it was yesterday. This drop is nothing. Except for those poor idiots who took at loans to buy at 19K
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Ahh the "time to buy cheap coins" rally of the die-hard bitcoin shysters. Your own post says "It's not liquid enough yet, creates no need to middle men and Bitcoin itself is now being manipulated by futures contracts based on supply being increased artificially." Does that sound like buying now is a good idea? Doesn't to me... Bitcoin is, was and always will be a highly manipulated penny stock. It spiked from $1000 t…
What do you mean "no reason"? Supply and demand are the reasons the prices are shaped the way they are. It's a near perfect market.
To the limited extent that Bitcoin helps Chinese citizens out-maneuver the capital controls that the Chinese government has tried to enforce, then it could be analyzed as a shadow of the Chinese currency, but since the action is illegal, the data is dark. Thus Bitcoin, and other crypto currencies, are the world's most opaque investment.
Hope we don't see headlines like this one Atlanta massacre: Broker shoots 12 dead as stock market falls (1999) https://www.independent.co.uk/news/atlanta-massacre-broker-s... Atlanta Day Trader shooting 10 years later (2009) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ko3l8BuFsVk
So don't republish them, as it encourages copycats.
I understand your point, but I think that remembering the past can serve as a warning.
"Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it."
I was trading in 1999 and remember very well this story and many other similar that happened on the 00's and it's been guideline ever-since for me, to always evaluate your limits and check your sanity.
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Except almost anyone get get authorization to sell naked puts in the US market. Margin only handles the expected volatility of an instrument, not the tail risk.
> almost anyone get get authorization to sell naked puts in the US market Your broker is on the hook if you default. This means collateral requirements and risk limits. For example, see TD Ameritrade's rules [1]. These rules are filed with and reviewed by various regulators. > Margin only handles the expected volatility of an instrument, not the tail risk This sentence doesn't make sense. The Federal Reserve's Regula…
That is for stocks, with options the margin call can grow to a value quickly where a retail investor cannot afford it ever.
Edit: Looking at td margin schedule shows they'll require 20% in a reg-t account, so only 5 to 1 leverage at least. Still can risk $5k and owe 20k to your broker.
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What do you mean "no reason"? Supply and demand are the reasons the prices are shaped the way they are. It's a near perfect market.
> What do you mean "no reason"? As in "why is the price what it is". Saying "because of supply and demand" is useless, unhelpful pedantry.
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I love bitcoin and cryptocurrency as potential solutions to problems with gov-controlled currencies (I've used crypto to buy drugs, for example). But I'm still confused why people refer to purchasing currency as an "investment." Obviously the rates are going up now, but doesn't everyone expect them to just come back down? I don't convert my USD to Yen and call it an "investment."
Well, the circulation limit/deflationary part is pretty key to that. How many dollars/yen/what-have-you are printed every year leaving your existing dollars/yen/what-have-you with less buying power? Thinking the world will flock to a fixed pool of frictionless digital exchange does not seem insane to me. I'm talking about the ones you can transact for less than a penny (BCH), not the old guard (BTC).
Due to wealth inequality, we assume that majority of the crypto investment would be from ultra-rich. It might become quite normal for them to invest 1% of their wealth in crypto for uncorrelated diversification. In a way this is very similar to buying art which probably doesn't have much utility except among other wealthy people as socially agreed upon store of value. These folks have estimated wealth of $10T so that puts market cap contribution from them to $1T. Let's assume same amount comes from non-ultra-rich investors. So we can estimate btc market cap to $2T. This puts reasonable eventual upper bound value of 1 btc to $95,000. This eventual value might never be reached however because all 21M coins never be mined, not all wealthy people might do this, and also other coins will fragment the market. May be 3/4 discount is reasonable at this point to accommodate these factors which might put the value to $25K at this point. This is obviously assuming no black swan events like countries making it illegal or some other virtual currency tech doesn't become popular.
Interested in what someone with deep Bitcoin experience thinks the bottom is this time, before it starts to rebound...and why. Edit: Yes! Ggm's request below too.
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> The suicide prevention hotline is pinned to the top of cryptocurrency subreddits Which ones? I checked r/bitcoin, r/btc, r/ethereum, r/litecoin, r/bitcoinmarkets. Only one I saw with it was r/cryptocurrency
it's a rumor/meme. supposedly during the last crash, r/bitcoin had the suicide hotline pinned, but i wasn't able to confirm that on archive.org either.
BTC is still above 10K. Think about that for a while. I remember 500 like it was yesterday. This drop is nothing. Except for those poor idiots who took at loans to buy at 19K
honest question: do you believe there's a price point where it's /not/ stupid to go into debt to invest in cryptocurrencies?