Beyond the Bitcoin bubble • Hacker News Board

Re: Beyond the Bitcoin bubble

#191

Post by simias » Tue, Jan 16, 2018, 9:34 PM UTC

nabla9 wrote: post #109

simias wrote: post #90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>I predict that 10 years from now normal relational databases have infrastructure for shared, authenticated and verified rows I'm not sure I understand what you're predicting exactly. The big breakthrough of bitcoin is having a globally shared ledger without requiring any trust. In my experience most relational databases have a relatively straightforward trust model (i.e. the DB belongs to the organization using it a…

>I'm not sure I understand what you're predicting exactly General bookkeeping and shared transaction logs that improve trust and transparency. Improving trust don't always require massively distributed ledgers. Just sharing them with counterparty and having mutual cryptographic agreement is enough for many applications.

Calling that "blockchain technology" would be pure marketing though. Bittorrent and the various linux package managers would fit your definition for instance.

Re: Beyond the Bitcoin bubble

#192

Post by iamwil » Tue, Jan 16, 2018, 9:50 PM UTC

ACow_Adonis wrote: post #165

iamwil wrote: post #131

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Proof of Stake is already on the horizon for 2018 for Ethereum.

Is it just me, or do people keep staying "proof of stake" as an answer to the proof of work concept, when it's not even a given that such a thing is a feature as opposed to completely undesired?

That’s a separate issue. The comment I replied to is concerned about the energy consumption, and that’s what i’m Addressing.

Re: Beyond the Bitcoin bubble

#193

Post by bitCromwell » Tue, Jan 16, 2018, 10:04 PM UTC

v64 wrote: post #108

It's strange to me how there are many among the Hacker News crowd who can read an article like this and have doubts about its thesis. You lived through the 80s and 90s right? I can't count how many times in my life I was told no one would ever need a computer in their house, we've gotten along for decades just fine without them. No one will ever buy books online, that's ridiculous, you can go to the store and have on…

this community has been reactionary to bitcoin since day 1. crypto is a generational shift, more so than web 2.0 and the glory days of hacker news. the audience here is predominantly the pre-crypto generation, much like slashdot is the voice of the dot com generation.

we all need skepticism in our arsenal and that is what you can expect here, brilliant at times but hn is simply not the voice of this moment. you will be frustrated if you forget this rather than accepting it.

Re: Beyond the Bitcoin bubble

#194

Post by sangnoir » Tue, Jan 16, 2018, 10:05 PM UTC

iamwil wrote: post #145

v64 wrote: post #108

It's strange to me how there are many among the Hacker News crowd who can read an article like this and have doubts about its thesis. You lived through the 80s and 90s right? I can't count how many times in my life I was told no one would ever need a computer in their house, we've gotten along for decades just fine without them. No one will ever buy books online, that's ridiculous, you can go to the store and have on…

It's just really hard for people to see beyond the present. Innovators in one cycle are often blind to the opportunities in the next. I see it in a couple of my successful friends that built their own companies on the web and mobile when it comes to crypto. I'm reminded of the quote about the radio: “The wireless music box has no imaginable commercial value. Who would pay for a message sent to no one in particular?”…

Here's another quote:

"The CueCat isn't worth installing and using, even though it's available free of charge" —Walt Mossberg[1], WSJ Tech Reviewer, 2001

I think he nailed it.

1. https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB971305166620370724

Re: Beyond the Bitcoin bubble

#195

Post by pishpash » Tue, Jan 16, 2018, 10:21 PM UTC

v64 wrote: post #178

DenisM wrote: post #167

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you know much about those things? It'd be great if you could elaborate.

Many financial transactions take place between parties who don't necessarily trust that the other side isn't fudging their numbers in order to get a better deal for themselves or to conceal information. Auditing firms exist to pour through the financial books of both sides to say, with our due diligence, we've confirmed that the financial statements both parties are claiming are supported by evidence. This is a time…

Abstractly, I do not see how, economically, devolving trust can reduce cost. You pay for trust either to a third party as now or you pay it to the network verifiers. Somewhere there is a cost.

Now, keeping all records digitally and openly accessible, and having automated processes to replace human processes, that can certainly reduce cost, but it's a business process change and orthogonal to the blockchain.

Re: Beyond the Bitcoin bubble

#196

Post by DenisM » Tue, Jan 16, 2018, 10:27 PM UTC

v64 wrote: post #178

DenisM wrote: post #167

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you know much about those things? It'd be great if you could elaborate.

Many financial transactions take place between parties who don't necessarily trust that the other side isn't fudging their numbers in order to get a better deal for themselves or to conceal information. Auditing firms exist to pour through the financial books of both sides to say, with our due diligence, we've confirmed that the financial statements both parties are claiming are supported by evidence. This is a time…

I know you're no partial to this line of reasoning, but please humor me...

Could we achieve the same end by creating a big Git repository under control of the SEC? Anyone can make a clone, SEC will approve pull requests as needed. Or would you argue that this effectively becomes a blockchain as soon as we use start using hashes?

I think it's useful to have a paper-trail of hashed blocks/files, gives you a simple mental model to reason about immutability. I just don't quite understand the need for the decentralized commit protocol. For any legitimate (legal) purpose one could rely on a large central entity yielding much higher speed and lower expense/complexity.

Re: Beyond the Bitcoin bubble

#197

Post by miscreanity » Tue, Jan 16, 2018, 10:29 PM UTC

replicatorblog wrote: post #161

v64 wrote: post #108

It's strange to me how there are many among the Hacker News crowd who can read an article like this and have doubts about its thesis. You lived through the 80s and 90s right? I can't count how many times in my life I was told no one would ever need a computer in their house, we've gotten along for decades just fine without them. No one will ever buy books online, that's ridiculous, you can go to the store and have on…

My main issue with the blockchain hype is the inability of its proponents to explain what the future landscape will look like. Twenty years from now, what will the top three benefits of widespread blockchain adoption be? It shouldn't be that hard to offer concrete descriptions: In 1984, middle managers at Sears and AT&T were able to accurately predict how we'd use the internet in 2014. In 1999 a now-defunct ISP expla…

For fintech, v64 has made the case very well.

In another reply, I explained the use case for government is control and tracking via blockchain.

From the consumer perspective, the benefit will be convenience. We have car find that automatically open doors. Automation of the world around us will increase significantly, and instead of having a key fob for each item it will be a single device registered on a blockchain which everything else is registered as well. Permission can be automatically granted by machine to machine communication.

Why not a normal database? Maintenance, trust and universal accessibility.

Re: Beyond the Bitcoin bubble

#198

Post by gist » Tue, Jan 16, 2018, 10:29 PM UTC

v64 wrote: post #123

gist wrote: post #116

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So are you saying that it's more rational to simply think 'anything is possible' even though the available evidence and information seems to point to the fact that that isn't the case? After all you don't go around thinking that a country like (insert small insignificant country) is ever going to pass the United States in ability but sure 'anything is possible'. It could happen after all the US surpased Europe in man…

> So are you saying that it's more rational to simply think 'anything is possible' even though the available evidence and information seems to point to the fact that that isn't the case? At what point do you believe the internet had made its case as a technology? 1975? 1985? 1995? 2005? In each of those years, you had naysayers saying the internet would never become something people use in their daily lives, but here…

> Many business owners in the 90s looked at computer and internet technology and dismissed it as a fad that would cease to exist in 5 years

Well I've been around this for much longer than the 90's. Since the late 70's actually. I don't remember it that way at all. What I remember was that at the time it was either to expensive or the company (small ones) didn't have the time or resources to stop what they were doing and get a system up and running (say for inventory or shipping). There was not at all (and I was around plenty of small businesses btw) any sense that it wasn't something they needed. Anyone who typed invoices at the time (on a typewritter) and had to look up or remember pricing and/or work with inventory could easily see what a computer could do for them. The only issue was the cost.

With respect to the internet it was seen as unusable and not needed because of the speed primarily. If the speed wasn't fixed by broadband it would not have taken off. If you told people back then 'in 2 years you will have 'always on internet'' they would have thought differently.

Re: Beyond the Bitcoin bubble

#199

Post by miscreanity » Tue, Jan 16, 2018, 10:38 PM UTC

v64 wrote: post #190

miscreanity wrote: post #179

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The ultimate use case is control and tracking beyond any form created thus far. Paper currency that may be in your pocket has serial numbers printed on it. Those numbers cannot be readily associated with an individual. Bitcoin and all other blockchain systems can be connected to a user directly or through alternative methods. This is ideal for government and is the direction most are taking - control over blockchain…

This is a great point that I don't see a lot of people making. The US government would love nothing more than having a USDCoin that allows them to see exactly how money flows from person to person and institution to institution, as well as having a way to revoke your coins at will. The draconian implications of this technology, like many others, concern me greatly. Thanks for providing this perspective.

I would argue that Bitcoin is the coin, not a national cryptocoin. Russia world not trust a US coin, the US would not want to use a Chinese coin, etc. Bitcoin is effectively neutral territory but is effectively controlled through centralized mining operations that can certainly be collectively monopolized by the largest sovereign nations. It would be the modern version of mutually assured destruction.

Bitcoin is already a reserve currency in crypto thanks to longevity and stability of the protocol. Another may become the primary transactional currency and there may well be national variants for local trade, but reserve is effectively established.

Re: Beyond the Bitcoin bubble

#200

Post by IncRnd » Tue, Jan 16, 2018, 11:24 PM UTC

gamblor956 wrote: post #175

IncRnd wrote: post #122

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> In fact, it is illegal for him not to accept the national currency. What country are you referencing? It can't be the US. https://www.federalreserve.gov/faqs/currency_12772.htm Is it legal for a business in the United States to refuse cash as a form of payment? Section 31 U.S.C. 5103, entitled "Legal tender," states: "United States coins and currency [including Federal reserve notes and circulating notes of Federal…

It's tricky, but this is generally interpreted to mean that while a business can choose not to accept cash/USD up-front for payment, they must accept USD to extinguish any debts (i.e., payment after the fact). This is because a non-standard form of payment must be agreed upon prior to the sale/service at issue.

That's exactly what it says. USD must be accepted for debts only.