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Beyond the Bitcoin bubble

nytimes.com

141–150 of 244 posts

Re: Beyond the Bitcoin bubble

#141
post #108

It's strange to me how there are many among the Hacker News crowd who can read an article like this and have doubts about its thesis. You lived through the 80s and 90s right? I can't count how many times in my life I was told no one would ever need a computer in their house, we've gotten along for decades just fine without them. No one will ever buy books online, that's ridiculous, you can go to the store and have on…

>You lived through the 80s and 90s right? I can't count how many times in my life I was told no one would ever need a computer in their house, we've gotten along for decades just fine without them. No one will ever buy books online, that's ridiculous, you can go to the store and have one right now. The internet is just a niche chat program that will never have any use in business, etc.

Why do you assume that Bitcoin is one of these few winners, rather than the multitude of losers? The default position should be "failure"; it's not irrational.

Re: Beyond the Bitcoin bubble

#142
post #108

It's strange to me how there are many among the Hacker News crowd who can read an article like this and have doubts about its thesis. You lived through the 80s and 90s right? I can't count how many times in my life I was told no one would ever need a computer in their house, we've gotten along for decades just fine without them. No one will ever buy books online, that's ridiculous, you can go to the store and have on…

> You lived through the 80s and 90s right? I can't count how many times in my life I was told no one would ever need a computer in their house, we've gotten along for decades just fine without them. No one will ever buy books online, that's ridiculous, you can go to the store and have one right now. The internet is just a niche chat program that will never have any use in business, etc. Why do you assume that Bitcoin…

> Why do you assume that Bitcoin is one of these few winners, rather than the multitude of losers?

I didn't state that Bitcoin would be a winner, and in fact stated in my comment that Bitcoin may cease to exist as a software product. My criticism is more directed toward those who don't believe the blockchain is a useful data construct and that the research taking place today into blockchains and cryptocurrencies are a dead end.

Re: Beyond the Bitcoin bubble

#143
post #101
post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We had the dot-com bubble, but it didn't stop the internet from changing everything in fundamental way. Google, Facebook and Amazon are in the top 10 most valuable companies in the world - all completely dependant on the internet for the business model. Granted webvan and pets.com didn't make it, but it didn't mean the internet had failed as an idea.

That’s a common marketing claim but the comparison has problems: Bitcoin is turning 10 without a single application where it has a significant advantage over the status quo unless you count ransomware. In contrast, as soon as the internet became available to normal people they had immediate new or improved options for a bunch of different activities. Yes, speculators backed a lot of bad business ideas but that was be…

> Bitcoin is turning 10.

It all depends on where you start counting. In 2008 it was just Satoshi and a few cypherpunks. I would argue it looked a lot like Arpanet [0]. So Fast forward 10 years from 1973 ... and was the internet really useful in 1983?

On January 1st 1983, "every machine connected to ARPANET had to use TCP/IP. TCP/IP became the core Internet protocol and replaced NCP entirely." [1] ... hardly a huge commercial success at that point.

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ARPANET [1] https://www.davesite.com/webstation/net-history2.shtml

Re: Beyond the Bitcoin bubble

#144
post #108

It's strange to me how there are many among the Hacker News crowd who can read an article like this and have doubts about its thesis. You lived through the 80s and 90s right? I can't count how many times in my life I was told no one would ever need a computer in their house, we've gotten along for decades just fine without them. No one will ever buy books online, that's ridiculous, you can go to the store and have on…

> You lived through the 80s and 90s right? I can't count how many times in my life I was told no one would ever need a computer in their house, we've gotten along for decades just fine without them. No one will ever buy books online, that's ridiculous, you can go to the store and have one right now. The internet is just a niche chat program that will never have any use in business, etc. Why do you assume that Bitcoin…

[deleted]

Re: Beyond the Bitcoin bubble

#145
post #108

It's strange to me how there are many among the Hacker News crowd who can read an article like this and have doubts about its thesis. You lived through the 80s and 90s right? I can't count how many times in my life I was told no one would ever need a computer in their house, we've gotten along for decades just fine without them. No one will ever buy books online, that's ridiculous, you can go to the store and have on…

It's just really hard for people to see beyond the present. Innovators in one cycle are often blind to the opportunities in the next. I see it in a couple of my successful friends that built their own companies on the web and mobile when it comes to crypto.

I'm reminded of the quote about the radio:

“The wireless music box has no imaginable commercial value. Who would pay for a message sent to no one in particular?” — Associates of David Sarnoff responding to the latter’s call for investment in the radio in 1921.

And then a couple of years later, for someone that made their stake in radio:

“While theoretically and technically television may be feasible, commercially and financially it is an impossibility, a development of which we need waste little time dreaming.” — Lee DeForest, American radio pioneer and inventor of the vacuum tube, 1926

And remember TV didn't really come into its own until decades after 1926.

---

Yesterday, I was reading about past objections (circa 2007) to using Git vs CVS or SVN, and most of the objections were things that turned out to be unimportant. The objections focused on how their team doesn't have a decentralized workflow that the Linux Kernel does, so they don't need git. Or that the interface sucked, so they don't need git.

Turns out everyone mostly uses git in a centralized way (via Github), to coordinate, but the decentralized design reveals secondary affordances that are really useful in practice. The decentralized design allows you to work and commit offline--great as laptops became more pervasive and more people worked on them. (You use to have to be online to commit, and can sometimes take minutes) The decentralized design also used content hashing with parent chains, which allows for inherent self-checking--no object modification can escape detection. Git's data structure makes commits fast, which in practice makes fine-grained commits possible. And the decentralized design gives everyone a backup of the repo, so the central repo getting nuked by the intern doesn't take down the org. Nowadays, in saying these things, I'm preaching to the choir. But back then, it was completely non-obvious.

The only people that got it right back then are the ones that dug into the technical details, and then actually tried it out. Notably, the guy at X.org. https://keithp.com/blog/Repository_Formats_Matter/

And I think it's a similar thing with cryptocurrencies, in the way that the fundamental different design and architecture of blockchains allows for secondary effects that are harder to see (until you've actually used or programmed in it) that aren't available to you at all otherwise.

The trap most people fall into is that they compare the new X with what the old Y does very well. But they never consider that if it's actually got a new underlying concept, it might suck at what the old Y has had time to get good at, but it allows for some other thing that we just couldn't do at all before.

Re: Beyond the Bitcoin bubble

#146
post #108

It's strange to me how there are many among the Hacker News crowd who can read an article like this and have doubts about its thesis. You lived through the 80s and 90s right? I can't count how many times in my life I was told no one would ever need a computer in their house, we've gotten along for decades just fine without them. No one will ever buy books online, that's ridiculous, you can go to the store and have on…

So the logic of the first part of your post boils down to this:

There were people in the past skeptical of an outlandish claim who turned out to be wrong as that thing became something great, therefore people who are skeptical of another outlandish claim today are also wrong. Did I get that right?

Re: Beyond the Bitcoin bubble

#147
post #146
post #108

It's strange to me how there are many among the Hacker News crowd who can read an article like this and have doubts about its thesis. You lived through the 80s and 90s right? I can't count how many times in my life I was told no one would ever need a computer in their house, we've gotten along for decades just fine without them. No one will ever buy books online, that's ridiculous, you can go to the store and have on…

So the logic of the first part of your post boils down to this: There were people in the past skeptical of an outlandish claim who turned out to be wrong as that thing became something great, therefore people who are skeptical of another outlandish claim today are also wrong. Did I get that right?

No, you didn't get that right at all. Doubt and skepticism are inherent parts of creating new ideas, and at no point did I express that the people who are skeptical are wrong.

Rather, I am surprised to see comments on a technical website like Hacker News that are treating the long, drawn out development of cryptocurrencies and blockchains as something that is completely different than the long, drawn out development of the personal computer and the internet. It took the Internet more than 10 years to be useful, and so I think saying "shut it down, this is going nowhere" about Bitcoin today is not a useful viewpoint to take. Even if you doubt the technology itself, there is no reason to stifle its continued research and development.

Re: Beyond the Bitcoin bubble

#148
post #134
post #108

It's strange to me how there are many among the Hacker News crowd who can read an article like this and have doubts about its thesis. You lived through the 80s and 90s right? I can't count how many times in my life I was told no one would ever need a computer in their house, we've gotten along for decades just fine without them. No one will ever buy books online, that's ridiculous, you can go to the store and have on…

I lived through the 80s and early 90s. The difference is that I could do stuff with the early Internet. I could do stuff with BBSes. I could do stuff with early PCs. These things were almost immediately very useful to a lot of people. The reason I've become a bear on cryptocurrency is that I don't see the utility to justify the monstrous amounts of money pouring into it. It's almost 10 years old and today it's actual…

But gambling is a real-world use case. There is plenty of real-world illegal activities that benefit from bitcoin, and they can all deal just fine with high transaction fees, delays, volatility, etc.

Re: Beyond the Bitcoin bubble

#149
post #147
post #146

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So the logic of the first part of your post boils down to this: There were people in the past skeptical of an outlandish claim who turned out to be wrong as that thing became something great, therefore people who are skeptical of another outlandish claim today are also wrong. Did I get that right?

No, you didn't get that right at all. Doubt and skepticism are inherent parts of creating new ideas, and at no point did I express that the people who are skeptical are wrong. Rather, I am surprised to see comments on a technical website like Hacker News that are treating the long, drawn out development of cryptocurrencies and blockchains as something that is completely different than the long, drawn out development…

Yes, except, personal computers didn't have negative side effects like raising funds illegally outside of investor production regulations (icos) or facilitating dark web trade.

Re: Beyond the Bitcoin bubble

#150
post #131

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not sure the parallels are as strong as you're making them out to be; there are deep, deep flaws with proof of work as a concept because of the energy consumed. There will probably be a better end state for distributed trust, but we're legitimately not there yet.

Proof of Stake is already on the horizon for 2018 for Ethereum.

PoS doesn't solve the problem of concentrating power on miners
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