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It can all go to zero

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Re: It can all go to zero

#142
post #33

Time for the monthly cryptocurrency panic thread. While I fully agree that most cryptocurrencies are grossly overvalued, these articles always pretend a 20% selloff is the beginning of the end, when, in crypto land, 20% selloffs are a pretty standard bad day for the market.

The way I understand it bitcoin is guaranteed to go to zero by design because there is a fixed limit on issue and so eventually there will be no incentive to mine and the network will collapse.

The block reward is not the only incentive to mine. Users also pay miners with a transaction fee.

The whitepaper is short and very approachable ;)

https://bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf

Re: It can all go to zero

#143
post #76
post #33

Time for the monthly cryptocurrency panic thread. While I fully agree that most cryptocurrencies are grossly overvalued, these articles always pretend a 20% selloff is the beginning of the end, when, in crypto land, 20% selloffs are a pretty standard bad day for the market.

The trend of 15-20% swings is well documented in Bitcoin history, no doubts about that. Crypto is a young economy in general, and it's been thrilling for me (on the outside, as I don't speculate or hold) to watch. But I don't know. If you play with the zoom levels on price tracking sites, the $20k peak onward has been a pretty steady downward trend. BTC is down 20% over three days, down nearly 23% over a week. Is tha…

The interesting thing is that this is what a real free market looks like.

This is what any market would look like without being rigged by governments and government backed institutions.

Bitcoin may be the best proof yet of how deeply flawed the libertarian free market ideology really is.

Re: It can all go to zero

#144
post #108

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If people stop mining it then you can't buy it. Remember, with the current design if hash power suddenly drops enough then the network just stops.

In that scenario there would likely be a fork of the software to do something like lower the hash power requirements and continue using the network.

If all the miners go away the difficulty requirement will drop on its own to maintain the 10min block rate. No need to fork anything: https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Difficulty

Re: It can all go to zero

#145
post #33

Time for the monthly cryptocurrency panic thread. While I fully agree that most cryptocurrencies are grossly overvalued, these articles always pretend a 20% selloff is the beginning of the end, when, in crypto land, 20% selloffs are a pretty standard bad day for the market.

The way I understand it bitcoin is guaranteed to go to zero by design because there is a fixed limit on issue and so eventually there will be no incentive to mine and the network will collapse.

Actually Bitcoin has transaction fees for exactly this purpose. The idea is that once all the coins are mined the primary way that miners make money is from the fees that people pay to miners to get their transactions recorded in the blockchain.

For reference a lot of times you currently have to pay a fee of >$10 to get your transaction recorded in the blockchain, and estimates of around $10 million a day in transaction fees go to miners.

Of course its questionable whether fees can actually support the ecosystem, but it is designed into the system.

Re: It can all go to zero

#147
I see Dogecoin is no longer at it's 2 billion dollar market cap. When my dad asked me if I thought BitCoin was in a bubble, I told him that the fact that a parody coin had a market capitalization of two billion dollars seemed to indicate that something was off.

Re: It can all go to zero

#149

So many people love to parrot the 'It'll go down to zero!' line, especially if they don't have skin in the game, but there's pretty much no way. Specific cryptocurrencies, sure they could potentially go to zero. I'm watching one right now that's looking pretty darn close. But this entire industry? I don't think so. It's too late for that. Too many players, too much ease of access, too much of the potential has been d…

Were you around a few years back to see real estate values drop from $300K to $25K? I saw that. And we are talking about a physical property. $25K is not zero, but it would be hard to distinguish the effective difference if you're leveraged $250K. So, as with any investment, if you're spending monopoly money on cryptocurrencies, scoff away. But if your retirement depends on it...

Are they still worth $25k? Or are they now back until to being over $300k?

Re: It can all go to zero

#150
post #144

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In that scenario there would likely be a fork of the software to do something like lower the hash power requirements and continue using the network.

If all the miners go away the difficulty requirement will drop on its own to maintain the 10min block rate. No need to fork anything: https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Difficulty

As I commented in another thread: the difficulty adjustments happen periodically after a certain number of blocks, not after any given period of time. If the hash rate decreases, the adjustment slows down along with everything else.

A 5%/day sustained drop is enough to halt transaction processing entirely.

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=16161326

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