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It can all go to zero

feld.com

61–70 of 361 posts

Re: It can all go to zero

#62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> these articles always pretend a 20% selloff is the beginning of the end There are individuals in this thread claiming "there will always be buyers" and that the probability of Bitcoin becoming worthless is zero. The point of the article isn't that Bitcoin is doomed. It's that there is a substantial non-zero probability it ends up worthless. That such an elementary claim about a volatile asset is controversial almos…

> That such an elementary claim about a volatile asset is controversial almost says more than the article. That it's such an elementary claim is the reason for the pushback. What's the point in saying something obvious?

> What's the point in saying something obvious?

Saying something obvious (e.g. circles are round) isn't the same as refuting something obvious (e.g. circles are squares).

Re: It can all go to zero

#64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But that's the point, you're not invested in cryptocurrencies in general as much as most people are invested in 1 or 2 or maybe a small handful. When tech crashed did the tech sector basket go to $0? Of course not and no one contends that it would, but did a lot of people lose their shirts on Pets.com? You bet.

Well that's why it's common knowledge in the stock market to diversify your portfolio, and they call it a portfolio, not a single stock, and why so many people invest in mutuals. There's not an equivalent to mutuals in the cryptoverse yet, but there will be. I've made quite a few small bets on various alts. I'm taking the black swan approach to them. Quite a few could drop to zero in a couple years but I'm betting at…

There's not an equivalent to mutuals in the cryptoverse yet, but there will be.

Working equivalents already exist.

Re: It can all go to zero

#65

So many people love to parrot the 'It'll go down to zero!' line, especially if they don't have skin in the game, but there's pretty much no way. Specific cryptocurrencies, sure they could potentially go to zero. I'm watching one right now that's looking pretty darn close. But this entire industry? I don't think so. It's too late for that. Too many players, too much ease of access, too much of the potential has been d…

Were you around a few years back to see real estate values drop from $300K to $25K? I saw that. And we are talking about a physical property.

$25K is not zero, but it would be hard to distinguish the effective difference if you're leveraged $250K.

So, as with any investment, if you're spending monopoly money on cryptocurrencies, scoff away. But if your retirement depends on it...

Re: It can all go to zero

#66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> these articles always pretend a 20% selloff is the beginning of the end There are individuals in this thread claiming "there will always be buyers" and that the probability of Bitcoin becoming worthless is zero. The point of the article isn't that Bitcoin is doomed. It's that there is a substantial non-zero probability it ends up worthless. That such an elementary claim about a volatile asset is controversial almos…

Ok can you talk more about your failure case then? What are the conditions like what exactly is the end result. There are 0 exchanges?

A bug is discovered allowing fraudulent creation of bitcoins, and no easy or timely fix is possible.

That or governments outlaw it entirely.

Re: It can all go to zero

#67
post #31

This reminds me so much of the .COM bubble. Same kind of discussions. I think there will be a place for cryptocurrency but before that has been established there will be a lot of people taking a lot of pain. People who have bought them a few years ago will only take paper losses but now there is real money flowing into this.

Yup. AMZN traded at around $100 in 1999, then $12 just a few months later. Now if you believed in Amazon's business model and bought at that low you could have made about 120 times what you invested if you sold today.

For me I look at crypto the same way. Crypto's value is going to fluctuate over time, but I think that over the long term (5-10 years) it will become more stable and more valuable. A huge dip is a great time to buy.

It also helps to only buy crypto for fun and consider it akin to gambling :)

Re: It can all go to zero

#68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Everything is based on faith to a certain extent. None of us (that I'm aware of) have crystal balls that see the exact future. Even companies that have lots of assets behind them could potentially make catastrophic fuck ups that tank their stock (i.e. BP and their Deepwater Horizon spill) in an instant.

I think you see the point the parent comment was making. Even if BP makes a colossal mistake and their stock dives, at the very least they can sell of their real physical assets. Crypto can actually dive to zero, there is no safety net since there are no physical goods.

Crypto as a whole going to zero? It would only go to zero if there was zero utility. Whether or not the market is overvalued at the present, there's plenty of value there.

Re: It can all go to zero

#69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The thing tho is that people have seen the insane gains it can provide. There will always be buyers. If Bitcoin went to $50 tomorrow, you can bet I would buy a lot. I'm not the only one. It's done magic once, it might again. The point is, there will always be buyers.

To buy Bitcoin, a miner somewhere has to produce a block with your transaction in it. If the value of Bitcoin falls that much, it will no longer be profitable to mine. With no miners, nobody could buy or sell anything.

The difficulty will be adjusted accordingly and automatically (it's part of the protocol). Your scenario can't happen.

Re: It can all go to zero

#70

At this point, Bitcoin is not much more than a phantom object. Too overpriced to use for any reasonable purchase, people are literally trading nothing but zeros and ones, no more or less valuable than the bits making up this comment. All that can change, but only if the price drops back down to its 2016 to early 2017 values, and there are too many people invested at this price to let Bitcoin survive as an actual curr…

Too overpriced to use for any reasonable purchase Could one have a cryptocurrency which is always subdividable? Are there any which already have this feature?

It's about transaction fees and computing power. The cost of powering the computers that verify transactions has to be covered.
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