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It can all go to zero

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Re: It can all go to zero

#51

Post by adamnemecek »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #34
aitrean wrote: post #33

Time for the monthly cryptocurrency panic thread. While I fully agree that most cryptocurrencies are grossly overvalued, these articles always pretend a 20% selloff is the beginning of the end, when, in crypto land, 20% selloffs are a pretty standard bad day for the market.

> these articles always pretend a 20% selloff is the beginning of the end There are individuals in this thread claiming "there will always be buyers" and that the probability of Bitcoin becoming worthless is zero. The point of the article isn't that Bitcoin is doomed. It's that there is a substantial non-zero probability it ends up worthless. That such an elementary claim about a volatile asset is controversial almos…

Ok can you talk more about your failure case then? What are the conditions like what exactly is the end result. There are 0 exchanges?

Re: It can all go to zero

#52

Post by VMG »

aitrean wrote: post #33

Time for the monthly cryptocurrency panic thread. While I fully agree that most cryptocurrencies are grossly overvalued, these articles always pretend a 20% selloff is the beginning of the end, when, in crypto land, 20% selloffs are a pretty standard bad day for the market.

we haven't even reached the phase were https://99bitcoins.com/bitcoinobituaries/ gets new hourly entries

Re: It can all go to zero

#54

Post by S_A_P »

Ive some positions in different cryptos. I bought them with the same mindset that I use when I go to a casino. What do I not mind losing? Its just one more investment vehicle that I plan on riding out for the mid to long term. I may win, I may lose but its not the only horse Im betting on.

Re: It can all go to zero

#55

Post by onewaystreet »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #34
aitrean wrote: post #33

Time for the monthly cryptocurrency panic thread. While I fully agree that most cryptocurrencies are grossly overvalued, these articles always pretend a 20% selloff is the beginning of the end, when, in crypto land, 20% selloffs are a pretty standard bad day for the market.

> these articles always pretend a 20% selloff is the beginning of the end There are individuals in this thread claiming "there will always be buyers" and that the probability of Bitcoin becoming worthless is zero. The point of the article isn't that Bitcoin is doomed. It's that there is a substantial non-zero probability it ends up worthless. That such an elementary claim about a volatile asset is controversial almos…

> That such an elementary claim about a volatile asset is controversial almost says more than the article.

That it's such an elementary claim is the reason for the pushback. What's the point in saying something obvious?

Re: It can all go to zero

#56

Post by eth1 »

surrey-fringe wrote: post #44

I've been thinking of starting a Medium account lately. All I have to do is wait for something bad to happen in crypto and give a first grade interpretation of events and compare them to some money movie I saw recently. I don't need to understand anything about crypto, and I can feel superior to all my friends who aren't working because they made money.

Top of hacker news. Top of Reddit. everywhere. nocoiners feeling vindicated after a 30% drop when we've had a 3000% rise in 2017 and a 30%, 40%, even 50% drop has happened more than i can count in two hands in the past 9 years. So, let them enjoy their moment. I'll be laughing when bitcoin hits 50K in 2018.

Re: It can all go to zero

#57

Post by kybernetikos »

VMG wrote: post #32

If Bitcoin goes to 0, I will buy all of it and display the Trezor that stores it in a museum

You're right. Bitcoin was a significant and interesting technological step even if it ultimately fails in other ways. As long as we have a civilisation there will always be someone prepared to run a miner and own some for historical interest.

Maybe 0 isn't right for bitcoin but it is possible for it to go incredibly low and there are altcoins for which there isn't even any historical interest....

Re: It can all go to zero

#58

Post by JumpCrisscross »

adamnemecek wrote: post #51
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> these articles always pretend a 20% selloff is the beginning of the end There are individuals in this thread claiming "there will always be buyers" and that the probability of Bitcoin becoming worthless is zero. The point of the article isn't that Bitcoin is doomed. It's that there is a substantial non-zero probability it ends up worthless. That such an elementary claim about a volatile asset is controversial almos…

Ok can you talk more about your failure case then? What are the conditions like what exactly is the end result. There are 0 exchanges?

> Can you talk more about your failure case then?

The classic one. Nobody wants to pay more than a token amount for Bitcoin. Maybe central banks jacked up rates or we went into a recession or something newer and shinier came about.

Value crashes, miners find it more valuable to sell their equipment than keep mining or confirming transactions, the entire ecosystem compresses to where it was when it was more about tinkering. Maybe it remains somewhat relevant, as a curiosity. Our generation's Esperanto.

It takes no more imagination to imagine $0.0000000001 than it does to imagine $50,000.

Re: It can all go to zero

#59

Post by adamnemecek »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #58
adamnemecek wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ok can you talk more about your failure case then? What are the conditions like what exactly is the end result. There are 0 exchanges?

> Can you talk more about your failure case then? The classic one. Nobody wants to pay more than a token amount for Bitcoin. Maybe central banks jacked up rates or we went into a recession or something newer and shinier came about. Value crashes, miners find it more valuable to sell their equipment than keep mining or confirming transactions, the entire ecosystem compresses to where it was when it was more about tink…

Are we talking about Bitcoin or all crypto?

Re: It can all go to zero

#60

Post by seannyg »

Bitcoin and many other cryptocurrencies are fiat currencies, nothing more. Bitcoin's value is dependent not on underlying fundamentals, but rather on supply and demand. Its supply is limited and will be fixed, but its demand is based on on its perceived usefulness, either for storing value or making purchases (maybe other things?). Until we see that it is useful for these things, we should assume its fundamental value is zero.
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