It can all go to zero • Hacker News Board

Re: It can all go to zero

#11

Post by api » Tue, Jan 16, 2018, 6:35 PM UTC

adamnemecek wrote: post #3

The comparison with the other company makes no sense. A company has a "single point of failure". At this point there's waayy too many actors and people who want Bitcoin to succeed. The market is huge at this point. Like NASDAQ is like 7T IIRC. Crypto is today ~550B. It was like ~750B not too long ago. Note how there's no glue joining the idea of the company and crypto. It could go down but it could also go really up…

People made a version of that argument with mortgages and mortgage backed securities. Mortgages are spread across too many people, too many geographic areas, etc., and there's no way they'll all decline or default at once.

Re: It can all go to zero

#12

Post by frgtpsswrdlame » Tue, Jan 16, 2018, 6:36 PM UTC

cableshaft wrote: post #9

So many people love to parrot the 'It'll go down to zero!' line, especially if they don't have skin in the game, but there's pretty much no way. Specific cryptocurrencies, sure they could potentially go to zero. I'm watching one right now that's looking pretty darn close. But this entire industry? I don't think so. It's too late for that. Too many players, too much ease of access, too much of the potential has been d…

But that's the point, you're not invested in cryptocurrencies in general as much as most people are invested in 1 or 2 or maybe a small handful. When tech crashed did the tech sector basket go to $0? Of course not and no one contends that it would, but did a lot of people lose their shirts on Pets.com? You bet.

Re: It can all go to zero

#13

Post by adamnemecek » Tue, Jan 16, 2018, 6:36 PM UTC

aphextron wrote: post #7

adamnemecek wrote: post #3

The comparison with the other company makes no sense. A company has a "single point of failure". At this point there's waayy too many actors and people who want Bitcoin to succeed. The market is huge at this point. Like NASDAQ is like 7T IIRC. Crypto is today ~550B. It was like ~750B not too long ago. Note how there's no glue joining the idea of the company and crypto. It could go down but it could also go really up…

Ask yourself what exactly is behind that “~550B”. The answer is nothing but faith. You are comparing the market cap of cryptocurrencies to NASDAQ, a portfolio of the highest profit driving, real asset laden companies on earth. How is this even remotely realistic?

All investment is just faith to a certain degree. I own stock that could also go to zero over night. So do many other people.

Bitcoin will enable many more exchanges that weren't possible before.

Re: It can all go to zero

#14

Post by sputknick » Tue, Jan 16, 2018, 6:36 PM UTC

whiskyant wrote: post #2

Maybe if you're holding a shitcoin, but Bitcoin? Nope.

What value does Bitcoin add to society? IF you don't add value, what's the point of having you around? Bitcoin could absolutely go to zero. I say this as a holder of some.

Re: It can all go to zero

#15

Post by baq » Tue, Jan 16, 2018, 6:36 PM UTC

adamnemecek wrote: post #10

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> At this point there's waayy too many actors and people who want Bitcoin to succeed This has no relation to whether something goes to zero (or practically zero). Political influence? Sure. But I don't think anyone expects D.C. to bail out Bitcoin. > A company has a "single point of failure" Companies trade after bankruptcy. There are stubs, practical and theoretical, for companies improperly wound up going back deca…

> But I don't think anyone expects D.C. to bail out Bitcoin. What does it mean for Bitcoin to be bailed out? How can Bitcoin "fail"? > But a penny price is as good as zero. Why would it go to zero?

> Why would it go to zero?

Crisis of faith. There's nothing else behind it.

Re: It can all go to zero

#16

Post by adamnemecek » Tue, Jan 16, 2018, 6:37 PM UTC

api wrote: post #11

adamnemecek wrote: post #3

The comparison with the other company makes no sense. A company has a "single point of failure". At this point there's waayy too many actors and people who want Bitcoin to succeed. The market is huge at this point. Like NASDAQ is like 7T IIRC. Crypto is today ~550B. It was like ~750B not too long ago. Note how there's no glue joining the idea of the company and crypto. It could go down but it could also go really up…

People made a version of that argument with mortgages and mortgage backed securities. Mortgages are spread across too many people, too many geographic areas, etc., and there's no way they'll all decline or default at once.

Well they were wrong to make that argument. If for no other reason they were all spread across too many people IN THE US, which kinda invalidates the claim.

Re: It can all go to zero

#17

Post by draw_down » Tue, Jan 16, 2018, 6:37 PM UTC

I think we should all just admit we don't really understand what the hell is happening here. The "debates" about this stuff usually resemble a bunch of people throwing punches in the dark.

Re: It can all go to zero

#18

Post by cableshaft » Tue, Jan 16, 2018, 6:37 PM UTC

aphextron wrote: post #7

adamnemecek wrote: post #3

The comparison with the other company makes no sense. A company has a "single point of failure". At this point there's waayy too many actors and people who want Bitcoin to succeed. The market is huge at this point. Like NASDAQ is like 7T IIRC. Crypto is today ~550B. It was like ~750B not too long ago. Note how there's no glue joining the idea of the company and crypto. It could go down but it could also go really up…

Ask yourself what exactly is behind that “~550B”. The answer is nothing but faith. You are comparing the market cap of cryptocurrencies to NASDAQ, a portfolio of the highest profit driving, real asset laden companies on earth. How is this even remotely realistic?

Everything is based on faith to a certain extent. None of us (that I'm aware of) have crystal balls that see the exact future. Even companies that have lots of assets behind them could potentially make catastrophic fuck ups that tank their stock (i.e. BP and their Deepwater Horizon spill) in an instant.

Re: It can all go to zero

#19

Post by aphextron » Tue, Jan 16, 2018, 6:38 PM UTC

adamnemecek wrote: post #13

aphextron wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ask yourself what exactly is behind that “~550B”. The answer is nothing but faith. You are comparing the market cap of cryptocurrencies to NASDAQ, a portfolio of the highest profit driving, real asset laden companies on earth. How is this even remotely realistic?

All investment is just faith to a certain degree. I own stock that could also go to zero over night. So do many other people. Bitcoin will enable many more exchanges that weren't possible before.

And here is the inevitable “all money is just faith” argument.

Investing has nothing to do with faith, that’s called speculation. Investment is based on sound financial principals of expected future return based on debts and cash flow, where actual value is being created and added to the economy. This is mania.

Re: It can all go to zero

#20

Post by adamnemecek » Tue, Jan 16, 2018, 6:38 PM UTC

baq wrote: post #15

adamnemecek wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> But I don't think anyone expects D.C. to bail out Bitcoin. What does it mean for Bitcoin to be bailed out? How can Bitcoin "fail"? > But a penny price is as good as zero. Why would it go to zero?

> Why would it go to zero? Crisis of faith. There's nothing else behind it.

The thing tho is that people have seen the insane gains it can provide. There will always be buyers. If Bitcoin went to $50 tomorrow, you can bet I would buy a lot. I'm not the only one. It's done magic once, it might again.

The point is, there will always be buyers.