Earlier quoted context omitted.
It's not technically incorrect to say there is manipulation in the US markets, but comparing bitcoin exchanges to US exchanges is a bit laughable. The US Federal Reserve has (had) what amount(ed) to a printing press, associated with "working groups" a.k.a. PPT. However, major US exchanges themselves, whether stock, futures, etc., are far more regulated and mature compared to a bitcoin exchange. The manipulation to wh…
Lets talk about QE-1-4, the printing of money and bankers being bailed out. Your argument does not stand by any measure of reason or logic. Lets also talk about investment bankers and VC's who are completely being disrupted.
Researchers find that one person likely drove Bitcoin from $150 to $1,000
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Re: Researchers find that one person likely drove Bitcoin from $150 to $1,000
#62Bitcoin topped out as soon as the futures went live. Massive contango on a regulated futures market may have been a factor in "reeling in" price. The spot market is so thin that it didn't seem to take much open interest in the futs to whip the underlying. It's conceivable that some spot exchanges are or were still from 2017 to now, either malicious and/or incompetent, which would facilitate the continuation of such b…
Perhaps, but bitcoin futures are advertised like crazy on the the futures exchange, but volume is completely minuscule compared to other commodities (and crypto exchanges for that matter).
I'd expect traditional future buyers (if that is the correct term?) to be much less likely to be swayed by advertisement than the new market segments that could be attracted with bitcoin futures. Kind of logical to focus advertisement activity on the latter group.
Re: Researchers find that one person likely drove Bitcoin from $150 to $1,000
#63I suspect this is going on today. Cryptocurrency traders place a lot of faith in the exchanges. A bad actor at an exchange could manipulate a price upwards: - Create a ton of volume and potentially and upward trend (two bots trading with one another, increasing the price each time) - Generate hype around a coin - Let FOMO take over If things start to go south, disable withdrawals, deposits, or freeze the market until…
>> I doubt any of this manipulation is even illegal?
That was my first thought also... in stock/futures trading world, this is 100% normal business as usual. The idea of buying all the available XYZ to run up prices is a valid move for a hedge fund with sufficient capital to do so.
Re: Researchers find that one person likely drove Bitcoin from $150 to $1,000
#64As an interesting thought experiment, consider that VC is a tiny asset class. Now consider that if the amount invested in crypto were the same as is invested in VC, the market cap of crypto would be over 100 trillion dollars. At least if you assume a fixed ratio of dollars invested to market cap.
And, it would produce literally no value (unlike VC investment in companies). There are so many ways to look at crypto that makes it seem like it's incredibly undervalued and this kind of thought experiment has been done many times in different ways (with the example for the thought experiment changing over the years as the crypto market cap has grown to surpass the example...e.g. gold, Western Union money transfers, etc.). But, unless and until crypto provides value to justify it, it's all just speculation.
Right now, BTC is a basically useless asset. You can't buy things with it (without paying more than using dollars). You can't cost-effectively transfer money with it (fees are too high and transaction times are too long). What can you do with it? Sit on it, and hope it goes up. (Which is what I'm doing with the small amount I still hold.)
I'm vaguely optimistic about cryptocurrency, in general, but the current state of things makes me think there's too much money chasing too little value...all that money could be going into companies that make or do useful things. But, instead, it's just burning electricity.
Not directly a Bitcoin issue, but 99% of ICOs are blatant and obvious scams, most small altcoins are blatant and obvious scams. Even some major altcoins are blatant and obvious scams. I feel like there's a more than even chance of this whole thing ending in tears in the next couple of years, even if cryptocurrency eventually (like five, ten, twenty, years down the road) wins.
I don't mean to say you're wrong. More money will likely pour into cryptocurrency as people with money either fall for the ponzi schemes that surround it, or as it actually begins to produce some kind of value and becomes a useful tool for normal people to do normal things with it. We can't begin to compare crypto to the internet (as I've also seen people do...suggesting crypto adoption is now where the internet was 5, 10, years in, or whatever, just because the same number of people are hoarding coins as were on the internet at some early point) until you can actually buy pet food using it (or do something else of value). It isn't a revolution if it just sits in a vault like gold.
Re: Researchers find that one person likely drove Bitcoin from $150 to $1,000
#65As an interesting thought experiment, consider that VC is a tiny asset class. Now consider that if the amount invested in crypto were the same as is invested in VC, the market cap of crypto would be over 100 trillion dollars. At least if you assume a fixed ratio of dollars invested to market cap.
The market will react, though, by launching new coins. And soon that 100 trillion dollars will be spread out over 101 trillion currencies or tokens.
Most portfolios do not follow a uniform distribution.
Additionally there is a 'listing fee' for a coin on each exchange to prevent sybil attacks.
Re: Researchers find that one person likely drove Bitcoin from $150 to $1,000
#66Earlier quoted context omitted.
Yeah, the futures markets seriously reduced volatility and kept the price within a narrow band around $14k. I'm quite pleased by this, actually.
If you think this state of affairs is going to continue, I have a bridge to sell you. :)
Too late, I already own several metaphorical bridges (mining equipment).
Re: Researchers find that one person likely drove Bitcoin from $150 to $1,000
#67As an interesting thought experiment, consider that VC is a tiny asset class. Now consider that if the amount invested in crypto were the same as is invested in VC, the market cap of crypto would be over 100 trillion dollars. At least if you assume a fixed ratio of dollars invested to market cap.
And, it would produce literally no value (unlike VC investment in companies). There are so many ways to look at crypto that makes it seem like it's incredibly undervalued and this kind of thought experiment has been done many times in different ways (with the example for the thought experiment changing over the years as the crypto market cap has grown to surpass the example...e.g. gold, Western Union money transfers,…
>Right now, BTC is a basically useless asset. You can't buy things with it (without paying more than using dollars). You can't cost-effectively transfer money with it (fees are too high and transaction times are too long). What can you do with it? Sit on it, and hope it goes up. (Which is what I'm doing with the small amount I still hold.)
Illegal activity, dodging capital controls, etc.
Re: Researchers find that one person likely drove Bitcoin from $150 to $1,000
#68Wow, this paper's conclusion is delayed by 3 years. Willy and Markus bots are old news for anyone who has been following bitcoin closely. The source of all these allegations was this blog appearing in 2014: https://willyreport.wordpress.com/2014/05/25/the-willy-repor...
Any recent manipulations ? especially in 2017 end ?
I couldn't point to anything specific besides general human nature and in my opinion that suggests that if it can be done for a profit it will be done.
So to me it seems highly unlikely that there isn't some flavor of manipulation going on. There are random alt coins with multi-billion dollar market caps. There are fortunes being minted, people are surely manipulating something.
I think the interesting question though is will the world long term become the new manipulated view or will it eventually all just fall part.
Re: Researchers find that one person likely drove Bitcoin from $150 to $1,000
#69I suspect this is going on today. Cryptocurrency traders place a lot of faith in the exchanges. A bad actor at an exchange could manipulate a price upwards: - Create a ton of volume and potentially and upward trend (two bots trading with one another, increasing the price each time) - Generate hype around a coin - Let FOMO take over If things start to go south, disable withdrawals, deposits, or freeze the market until…
>> I doubt any of this manipulation is even illegal? That was my first thought also... in stock/futures trading world, this is 100% normal business as usual. The idea of buying all the available XYZ to run up prices is a valid move for a hedge fund with sufficient capital to do so.
In the MtGox case, the exchange was (allegedly) fraudulently buying BTC with cash that didn't exist, which could theoretically continue for as long as they have enough cash on hand to satisfy withdrawal requests. IANAL but in the US that sounds like blatant wire fraud at the very least; I'm not sure about the relevant Japanese law.
Re: Researchers find that one person likely drove Bitcoin from $150 to $1,000
#70Interesting. I am curious to know who drove up the Bitcoin price to $18K.
People looking to hedge futures contracts