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Bitcoin Miners on Track to Use More Electricity Than All of Argentina

fortune.com

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Re: Bitcoin Miners on Track to Use More Electricity Than All of Argentina

#51
post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> You don't have to match the energy burn, just the hash rate (so efficiency matters). Of course, but I don't know how anyone could be a lot more efficient that current miners, who are in a rat race to increase the efficiency of their mining operations. They probably think about energy consumption every waking hour of the day. > You also don't have to do it all at once, you just have to be faster than the network (If…

Re your PS, there will still be an old and new consensus blockchain no matter how fast you calculate the replacement. (that's why it is a "chain", the head depends on all previous values)

> Re your PS, there will still be an old and new consensus blockchain no matter how fast you calculate the replacement.

Yes, of course. In fact, at any point in time there are always multiple blockchains, one for every miner burning energy to add a new block.

However, only the longest blockchain (with the greatest proof-of-work) is valid. As soon as there's a longer valid blockchain, the miners discard their individual work-in-progress blockchains and switch to the one with the most proof-of-work.

That longest blockchain is the Bitcoin blockchain. That is the blockchain one would have to modify to alter the transaction history in the Bitcoin network without forking.

FWIW, I don't think we disagree; I feel like we've been talking about slightly different things until just now.

Re: Bitcoin Miners on Track to Use More Electricity Than All of Argentina

#52
post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When energy becomes cheaper, miners can do more mining, leading to an increase in blocks. Given that people are only willing to pay so much for a transaction to complete, there is only so much demand at a certain price point. Once the supply of blocks increases, you eventually have price points where the demand no longer matches the supply. At this point a miner would lower their fee until the demand increases back t…

> When energy becomes cheaper, miners can do more mining, leading to an increase in blocks. When there's an increase in blocks, Bitcoin increases the amount of mining required for a block, to prevent an increase in the supply of blocks.

And economics can easily account for that. Instead of saying the cost needed to product some number of blocks changes over time by 0, you instead say it changes over time by f(t). You then subtract f(t) (or add, depending upon how you treat the sign) from any actual decrease in cost to mine, and then apply the same logic.

Say the cost to mine falls by x (cheaper energy or some others amount), and x Normal economics works this same way due to scarcity, though the default change in cost into the future is far less sure of a thing. Take mining gold. Given that gold is mined from the cheapest to mine spots first, the more gold you mined, the more the cost of mining the same amount of gold. Maybe a new mine filled with easier to mine gold is found, maybe a current mine runs out of gold much sooner than expected, but it works in a similar manner.

Re: Bitcoin Miners on Track to Use More Electricity Than All of Argentina

#53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When energy becomes cheaper, miners can do more mining, leading to an increase in blocks. Given that people are only willing to pay so much for a transaction to complete, there is only so much demand at a certain price point. Once the supply of blocks increases, you eventually have price points where the demand no longer matches the supply. At this point a miner would lower their fee until the demand increases back t…

> a miner would lower their fee They're not "lowering their fee". That's not how it works. They might stop mining altogether, but it can never cost more to include a transaction than not to include it, unless including it pushes out another transaction that pays a higher fee.

>They're not "lowering their fee".

So a miner will never reduce the cost to include a transaction into their block, even when they aren't getting enough to fill up the block?

>They might stop mining altogether

Maybe, but any market can experience short term irrationality. Maybe it takes them a few hours to stop mining in which they lose money. Or maybe stopping operations costs enough money that the miner won't stop even at a small loss, at least for some amount of time.

Re: Bitcoin Miners on Track to Use More Electricity Than All of Argentina

#54
post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Re your PS, there will still be an old and new consensus blockchain no matter how fast you calculate the replacement. (that's why it is a "chain", the head depends on all previous values)

> Re your PS, there will still be an old and new consensus blockchain no matter how fast you calculate the replacement. Yes, of course. In fact, at any point in time there are always multiple blockchains, one for every miner burning energy to add a new block. However, only the longest blockchain (with the greatest proof-of-work) is valid. As soon as there's a longer valid blockchain, the miners discard their individu…

We are kind of talking about different things. I'm talking about how at the protocol level the contents of the longest chain do not matter, it is by rule the "consensus blockchain".

It naturally flows from there that as long as you can calculate blocks faster than the network, you can rewrite past transactions, with the speed difference restricting how far back you can rewrite.

There's no need to do it in an instant and doing it in an instant isn't any different than doing it more slowly (other than the amount of hidden hash power revealed).

Re: Bitcoin Miners on Track to Use More Electricity Than All of Argentina

#55
post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Re your PS, there will still be an old and new consensus blockchain no matter how fast you calculate the replacement. Yes, of course. In fact, at any point in time there are always multiple blockchains, one for every miner burning energy to add a new block. However, only the longest blockchain (with the greatest proof-of-work) is valid. As soon as there's a longer valid blockchain, the miners discard their individu…

We are kind of talking about different things. I'm talking about how at the protocol level the contents of the longest chain do not matter, it is by rule the "consensus blockchain". It naturally flows from there that as long as you can calculate blocks faster than the network, you can rewrite past transactions, with the speed difference restricting how far back you can rewrite. There's no need to do it in an instant…

Yes, I agree.

Re: Bitcoin Miners on Track to Use More Electricity Than All of Argentina

#56

Has there been articles or research done on how much energy is used to coin, print, distribute, and utilize fiat currencies?

The Bureau of Printing and Engraving budgeted $14.35 million in FY2017 for "Communication, utilities, and misc. charges." If we assume that 100% of that is electricity costs, and that electricity costs 12¢/kWh, then we get somewhere in the region of 120 million kWh in FY2017 to produce USD. That is 0.1% the annual electricity consumption of Argentina.

Just checked the Treasury 2017 budget which is around 3 billion.

Re: Bitcoin Miners on Track to Use More Electricity Than All of Argentina

#57
post #49

does anyone else think that articles like this are fueled self interested parties who don't have a stake in crypto? if crypto is here to stay, wont more efficient mining hardware, potentially more efficient software, and things like recent advances in solar relax these fears in reality?

wouldn't the self-interested parties be the ones with a stake in crypto?

and even if the article is written out of self-interest, does that somehow make its conclusions incorrect?

Re: Bitcoin Miners on Track to Use More Electricity Than All of Argentina

#58
post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No way. Other cryptocoins (ones that don't rely on PoW) never could have existed without it.

Why not?

Because PoW enabled trustless transactions AND a provably equitable distribution of the coin via distributed minting. "I can prove that this is not a scam to waste your time and money."

Other non-mined coins would never have taken off because they would never have gathered the critical confidence/interest that Bitcoin did. Only after PoW paved the way could others have any faith in DPoS or other coins.

Re: Bitcoin Miners on Track to Use More Electricity Than All of Argentina

#59
post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> miners can lower their fees This isn't how fees work. Fees are based purely on supply and demand. The payer sets their fee level when they create the transaction, and it's up to the miners which transactions they will include. Since there is always an excess of transactions, the miners typically select transactions to maximise their payoff. If miners were to "lower their fees", they'd be accepting low-fee transacti…

When energy becomes cheaper, miners can do more mining, leading to an increase in blocks. Given that people are only willing to pay so much for a transaction to complete, there is only so much demand at a certain price point. Once the supply of blocks increases, you eventually have price points where the demand no longer matches the supply. At this point a miner would lower their fee until the demand increases back t…

Increased mining of BTC and similar cryptocurrencies does not result in more blocks, just more energy spent.

Re: Bitcoin Miners on Track to Use More Electricity Than All of Argentina

#60
post #49

does anyone else think that articles like this are fueled self interested parties who don't have a stake in crypto? if crypto is here to stay, wont more efficient mining hardware, potentially more efficient software, and things like recent advances in solar relax these fears in reality?

In the long run hardware efficiency shouldn't matter. At longer time scales the cost of the electricity consumed will always trend towards the value of the reward.

Just by the simple mechanism of people seeing an opportunity to profit and buying hardware and turning it on.

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