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Alert About Missile Bound for Hawaii Was Sent in Error, Officials Say

nytimes.com

121–130 of 409 posts

Re: Alert About Missile Bound for Hawaii Was Sent in Error, Officials Say

#121
post #102

I actually wonder why this warning can be send in the first place. As this unwanted "test" has shown, people have absolutely no idea what to/where to go in that situation. Instead there was a lot of panic. If there is the possibility that you will send out such a message it would be a good idea to give some advice on what to do.

When they reinstated the alert system, they also put out a bunch of campaigns about how you should take shelter. https://www.nbcnews.com/news/asian-america/hawaii-reinstates...

Re: Alert About Missile Bound for Hawaii Was Sent in Error, Officials Say

#122
post #70

So either this was a security breach, a human mistake or a psyops/test on a small isolated American population. In the first case, we'll probably only be told about it if they actually make an arrest and the system is patched. The second is an interesting case, we'll come back to. The final one: it was intentional and used to track what happened on the islands, and to also watch that information propagate back to the…

I'm not seeing the angle for an NSA-type agency - what would they benefit? There are enough events of significance that happen organically - they could track those much more easily. They don't need to create an artificial event. The pattern is fairly predictable, too. Twitter users will hear of this first, followed by pockets of people with close friends in Hawaii. Then it will make the news sites and TV news.

Events specifically related to an incoming ICBM? Context matters. People will react differently depending on the circumstances, which means there are things to learn there.

The least nefarious reason for a 3 letter agency to do this would be to dry-run a reaction plan to such an event, and take what they learn from reactions & apply what they learn to improve said plan

Then again, it could be a dry-run to measure peoples sentiments toward a war with NK. Less likely, but still possible.

Re: Alert About Missile Bound for Hawaii Was Sent in Error, Officials Say

#123
post #64

So a test drill went wrong. It makes sense to have drills right now, India (tests with war against China and Pakistan), China (Telling their soldiers to be prepared to die for China), Russia(tests against Nato), and North Korea (getting ready for war with the US) are all having military tests for basically what will quickly become another world war. We are really at a big crossroads as a large amount of people are re…

I'd argue it makes sense to have test drills simply because the system exists: much like backups need testing, so do emergency systems. I'm not sure that the current state of the world should influence whether or not the systems are tested.

Re: Alert About Missile Bound for Hawaii Was Sent in Error, Officials Say

#124

So it took 38 minutes to send out a new message informing this was a false alert. How is that possible if this was simply a human error during a "shift change"? You'd think the people who "pressed the wrong button" would be able to press the same button again?

> You'd think the people who "pressed the wrong button" would be able to press the same button again? Absolutely not. Once you say “fire” you need official confirmation to say “no fire”. That means certification from the military. The official needed being in a meeting or tending to something of greater importance could easily introduce delays. In any case, I presume the system’s designers didn’t build in an “oops, f…

> Absolutely not. Once you say “fire” you need official confirmation to say “no fire”.

Whether they had or needed "official confirmation" the Hawaii EMA still tweeted "NO missile threat to Hawaii" ~13 min after the false alert https://twitter.com/Hawaii_EMA/status/952243912415985664

Would be nice if they could stick to the same medium and ensure timely delivery for this type of correction.

Re: Alert About Missile Bound for Hawaii Was Sent in Error, Officials Say

#125
So I posted something along these lines in another, now-duped thread... but I know that many folks were caught completely off guard and started wondering what they would have done in case of a real threat. Many just cracked Twitter jokes about dying in a blaze of glory.

For folks who want to understand the actual dangers and survivability of an ICBM strike, I strongly suggest a book from the 1960s written by one of the folks involved in the US nuclear program during the Cold War:

http://www.madisoncountyema.com/nwss.pdf

It cuts through many of the Hollywood-perpetuated myths - the certain and painful death in case of a nuclear strike, or the 10,000-year radioactive wasteland that's going to be left behind.

For example, it discusses why the oft-ridiculed duck-and-cover strategy is actually surprisingly effective. The primary threat from an air burst is very conventional - a shockwave and an intense burst of thermal radiation. Shelter - any shelter - greatly improves your survival odds.

The fallout from air bursts is comparatively modest (i.e., tends to be far lower than from an event such as Chernobyl) and while lethal, it decays very rapidly - dropping to reasonably safe levels in a matter of days, not centuries. Staying sheltered for 2-10 days greatly improves your odds, and the thickness of material between you and any surfaces that gather dust (roofs, ground) matters more than anything else. Here's a handy chart:

http://static3.businessinsider.com/image/58cc34b9112f7043268...

In other words, having enough food and water in your home to weather out a nasty stowstorm also makes you well-prepared for the nuclear apocalypse. Mattresses and bulky furniture provide decent shielding when all other options fail.

The long-term effect of fallout tend to be exaggerated, too; water from streams, deep lakes, or wells should be safe or get safe very quickly. Removing a layer of topsoil allows relatively safe crops to be grown. Mild radiation sickness, at the levels where people start experiencing vomiting and hair loss, is actually pretty survivable and has a relatively modest impact on your odds of developing cancer later in life.

(Plus, keep in mind that more than 2,000 nuclear tests have been conducted so far, including around 900 in Nevada alone; while they had some statistically observable negative effects, they have not turned the world into a nuclear wasteland.)

Of course, don't get me wrong - even a single nuclear strike would be awful, and a large-scale confrontation would mean untold damages and loss of life. But the important point is that a lot of people would survive and would be able to do well in the aftermath - more so if we teach them about some common-sense preparedness steps.

The main reason why our understanding of the nuclear risk is so lopsided is because for decades, many nuclear disarmament activists (including many prominent screenwriters, celebrities, and pundits) had a vested interested in portraying the already-awful outcomes of a potential nuclear war as far less survivable and far more hopeless than in reality; the mockery of duck-and-cover, the "barren wasteland" imagery in the movies, and the largely-discredited scientific theories like the "nuclear winter"... all helped to advance (otherwise noble) goals, but at the expense of teaching people that there's nothing they can do save themselves.

Plus, of course, after Cold War, we have fewer reasons to worry. It's hard to top the Cuban Missile Crisis. There's plenty of politicized hyperbole around nuclear tensions right now, but the reality is that a large-scale strike on the US is a lot less likely than throughout a good part of the 20th century.

PS. I have a short summary of NWSS and some other points about this topic (and other, more mundane but plausible hazards) in my "Doomsday Prepping for Less Crazy Folk" - http://lcamtuf.coredump.cx/prep/

Re: Alert About Missile Bound for Hawaii Was Sent in Error, Officials Say

#128

This should not happen, yet time after time we see that critical American infrastructure and systems are run worse than a pre-revenue bay area chat startup. American infrastructure needs to invest and hire/pay for the same quality that bay area startups do. Let four people go that are inept and less qualified and pay a single solid person market salary. Besides the fear and chaos potentially caused to people in Hawai…

The government needs to employ lots of people. This necessarily means they will employ some low-quality people. It's such a difficult problem to produce high-quality work with low-quality employees that most tech companies of scale have optimized their hiring process to pass as few low-quality workers as possible at the cost of turning down many potentially good ones. It'd be nice to see some effort to make working w…

>most tech companies of scale have optimized their hiring process to pass as few low-quality workers as possible

And look at the results! Those companies never have outages or push out defective code into production or allow security vulnerabilities through speculative execution say.

I'm being a bit sarcastic but glass houses, etc.

Re: Alert About Missile Bound for Hawaii Was Sent in Error, Officials Say

#129

An interesting Reddit comment described a chaotic traffic situation for 20 minutes (people running lights, wrong-side-of-the-road driving, extreme speed, etc.). Human nature in these moments is very “Tragedy of the Commons” apparently.

It's good to see people react. There are lots of stories of people dying in disasters because they didn't take it seriously. E.g. sirens blaring for a tornado alert, and people are just continue mowing their lawns. Or people continue eating their meal when the building is on fire, who ended up dying.

Re: Alert About Missile Bound for Hawaii Was Sent in Error, Officials Say

#130
post #8

Pro tip: if you are conducting a drill, refrain from using the words "THIS IS NOT A DRILL".

From what CNN is saying, it doesn't sound like it was a drill. The gov. of Hawaii said that the emergency management people were going through their normal shift-change procedures and somebody did the equivalent of:

'rm -rf $HOME/ foo' vs 'rm -rf $HOME/foo'

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