Half of the US government's financial assets are student loans • Hacker News Board

Re: Half of the US government's financial assets are student loans

#261

Post by wahern » Sat, Jan 13, 2018, 5:04 AM UTC

MR4D wrote: post #245

tunesmith wrote: post #168

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Buyer beware... "pension system that likely won't be there" is a right wing frame. In reality, social security very likely WILL be there. But fostering cynicism about it is a prerequisite towards imagining it won't be, which makes it (theoretically) easier to dismantle. "Well it's in poor shape anyway, we should just blow it up..." There are good informative comments below that are being downvoted, that are about how…

Normally I don’t unload like this, but framing this as a “right-wing” thing is both stupid and dangerous. Pensions in this country have made unrealistic assumptions for years. Just google it. Here’s one for you from the Brits, so no right/left anything: https://www.ft.com/content/456172b4-6b11-11e6-ae5b-a7cc5dd5a... And here’s another: http://www.wfaa.com/news/local/dallas-county/retired-dallas-... And another: http:…

State government pensions are totally unrelated to Social Security.

Under Federal law and under many state constitutions, vested benefits under state and municipal employee pension plans are a property right, and cannot be reduced unilaterally (depending on the theory, either because of the Takings Clause or Contracts Clause of the Federal constitution). And because, unlike private pensions and the USPS, Federal law doesn't require state or municipal governments to fully fund liabilities as they accrue, these particular pensions have turned into a disaster.

But Social Security was designed and intended at its very inception to require adjustment to both benefits and retirement age.[1] It's not a form of deferred compensation or other property right. So retirement age and benefits can and has and _will_ be adjusted to keep it solvent.

More over, Social Security was never designed to provide continuity of lifestyle, but rather to keep the elderly from starving and living homeless. All it has to do is provide as much as it can, no more or no less. It's a carefully designed social welfare program that is patterned after, but shouldn't be confused with, pensions and annuities.

The Social Security department has never made unrealistic assumptions, nor has Congress. The problem with Social Security is that there exists a political party that will cynically bemoan the pending collapse of Social Security while refusing to make the simple and obvious changes that were foreseen and expected of them 80 years ago and ever since.

[1] Actuarial tables back then were insanely accurate, and the bureaucrats who designed Social Security understand very well how things would play out. See this 1947 study, which also includes historical actuarial tables from the 1920s and earlier. https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/lifetables/life39-41_acturial....

In particular, note (PDF) pages 14 and 18 where it discusses the trends in longevity. I've seen better historical papers to make my point but don't have the references on hand. But I think that document suffices to show how actuarial science was well developed back then. And it's also worth noting that Social Security came about before the post-WWII baby boom. Populations were understood to be able to grow and shrink. Social Security was never predicated on a steadily growing population.

Re: Half of the US government's financial assets are student loans

#262

Post by wutangson1 » Sat, Jan 13, 2018, 5:21 AM UTC

Turing_Machine wrote: post #175

vminkov wrote: post #93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Come to Eastern Europe, your student loan money is enough for a whole new life here. P.s. honestly, I don't understand how ppl who are so hoplessly indebted are not migrating here. Bulgaria offers very cheap life with the opportunity of doing business with the EU and the US. Why work 24/7 when you can enjoy a good life in a place where the local people and economy need a foreigner to lead them in the business and glo…

What happens if Mr. Putin (or one of his successors) suddenly decides that he wants Bulgaria back under Russian control?

not sure it is realistic that Vova can decide he wants part of the EU under his control

Re: Half of the US government's financial assets are student loans

#263

Post by wutangson1 » Sat, Jan 13, 2018, 5:24 AM UTC

lozaning wrote: post #185

fineng123 wrote: post #105

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because they don't understand. A common refrain about the story in the U.S. of LaVar Ball, the impetuously famous basketball dad, is that it was a huge mistake to send his kids to play in Lithuania. It's a classic example of "worldly" Americans going to the Louvre and being "cultured" but not having the depth of understanding that Eastern Europe is a wonderful, beautiful place. It's just not as well-kept and poorer s…

I think there's plenty of room to critique LaVars choices while staying purely within the confines of basketball. The difference between skill level, exposure, and compensation is quite stark between the US and anywhere else. He could send his kids to go live at the Louvre and it's still be a dumb basketball move.

Actually, Lithuania fields a very good national team. When highschool kids (in Melo's case) are now having to adapt to the pro level, it can only benefit him.

Re: Half of the US government's financial assets are student loans

#264

Post by carapace » Sat, Jan 13, 2018, 5:27 AM UTC

judah wrote: post #187

dorchadas wrote: post #99

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And that's _exactly_ why I will likely never have kids. I'm a millennial myself, caught up in all that (doubly so, if they remove the student loan forgiveness for public workers), and I don't want to make any child of mine grow up in the world it seems we're heading to (especially degrading climate).

> "I don't want to make any child of mine grow up in the world it seems we're heading to" This is utterly short-sighted thinking. We in Western nations are utterly privileged and blessed to live in today's world. Abundance of clothing! Abundance of food! Free and accessible plumbing! Clean drinking water! Travel anywhere you like for relatively cheap! You probably own a large climate-controlled contraption that can t…

I am one who has decided not to have children, in part because I don't want to bring people I [would] love into this world in the state it's in.

You are right that we (at least in the First World) are standing at the pinnacle of human civilization. We have access to the knowledge of the whole world, going back throughout much of world history. We have science, medicine, technology that would dazzle our ancestors. All of the great things you talked about are true.

And yet...

I've seen the migration of the Monarch Butterfly. It's glorious, absolutely magical. Uncountable numbers of these gorgeous orange and black beauties fill the air, all fluttering together, all wobbling along in the same direction. It's impossible to describe the feeling of witnessing it, of being surrounded by an aerial sea of these soft gentle beautiful beings.

It doesn't happen anymore.

The Monarch population tanked a couple of years ago. Not enough milkweed for the caterpillars to eat. Too much land has been given over to human food production. People are planting milkweed in their gardens now, but who can say if the Monarchs will rebound?

Our food animals outweigh all other land mammals combined, by more than twenty times.[1]

All the glories of our Western civilization come from an extraordinarily wasteful system that is converting oil and natural biomass into humans and meat animals and trash. There are always trade-offs, and we may well be about to become victims of our own success.

I don't want to have to explain to my children what Monarch Butterflies were, what tigers and elephants were, what coral reefs were.

When the waters rise and billions of people have to move or die, I don't want my kids to have to deal with that.

I don't want them to suffer when the first genegineered virus sweeps through our cities.

I don't want them to be embedded in a technological panopticon that indelibly records their every movement and communication.

There are some serious problems that humanity is facing and I don't have the faith to create a new human being in light of them. And that's what it is: faith.

Dismissing these concerns as "foolish nonsense" is the "utterly short-sighted thinking" in my view.

No sir, I'll keep my kids safe in the Uncreate, at least until such time as things have settled.

"May you live in interesting times" is a curse, and I won't pronounce it on my own unborn offspring, thank you.

[1] > Our phytomass harvests go beyond the metabolic needs to secure raw materials (wood, fibers, pulp) and energy (fuelwood, charcoal, straw) whose inputs remain indispensable even in the age of metals, concrete, synthetics, and fossil fuels. The biosphere has paid a considerable price for these human gains as both its total stock of standing phytomass and its overall productivity have declined by significant margins. And because we are an omnivorous species we have also been harvesting a wide variety of zoomass by collecting and hunting animals as foragers and eventually also deliberately raising them as pastoralists and farmers. These actions have reduced the stocks of wild terrestrial and marine animals while massively expanding the stocks of cattle, water buffaloes, horses, camels, sheep, pigs, and poultry.

"Harvesting the Biosphere: The Human Impact" ~ Vaclav Smil http://www.vaclavsmil.com/wp-content/uploads/PDR37-4.Smil_.p...

Re: Half of the US government's financial assets are student loans

#265

Post by candiodari » Sat, Jan 13, 2018, 6:14 AM UTC

wahern wrote: post #261

MR4D wrote: post #245

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Normally I don’t unload like this, but framing this as a “right-wing” thing is both stupid and dangerous. Pensions in this country have made unrealistic assumptions for years. Just google it. Here’s one for you from the Brits, so no right/left anything: https://www.ft.com/content/456172b4-6b11-11e6-ae5b-a7cc5dd5a... And here’s another: http://www.wfaa.com/news/local/dallas-county/retired-dallas-... And another: http:…

State government pensions are totally unrelated to Social Security. Under Federal law and under many state constitutions, vested benefits under state and municipal employee pension plans are a property right, and cannot be reduced unilaterally (depending on the theory, either because of the Takings Clause or Contracts Clause of the Federal constitution). And because, unlike private pensions and the USPS, Federal law…

So what you're saying is

People should worry about pensions because they won't fail, instead they'll be adjusted to become much less, both in terms of years (longer work) and in terms of benefits (which will be your only form of income for decades).

This makes me wonder, what, exactly, do you think "failure" means, to normal people, for their pension fund/social security/... ?

In my humble opinion, it is that they'll have to work longer and make more money themselves, after getting a pension. And for various other social security recipients it'll be analogous.

So your long comment essentially says "pensions won't fail, they'll fail !". (Or perhaps one could say that you're being extremely pedantic on the exact meaning of fail versus the common meaning of fail)

Obviously the claim made to the population by social security is that they'll receive benefits for a given period. You clearly agree that that promise is unsustainable, and fail/("will be adjusted").

Re: Half of the US government's financial assets are student loans

#266

Post by candiodari » Sat, Jan 13, 2018, 6:27 AM UTC

dmm wrote: post #244

Clanan wrote: post #211

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are already unfunded pension plans and systems waiting to blow up in the next decade. This article [0] details the South Carolina government pension plan, covering 550,000 residents, which is currently $24 billion in the red. Your response is engaging in "political crap" by providing no evidence besides name-calling. For some actual proof of the Social Security situation, here's the SSA report [1] explaining ho…

Once the trust fund is exhausted, unless the law is changed, SS payouts are made equal to SS payroll taxes. This is projected to settle out to payments being ~70% of what has been promised.

Ok so the next question is whether that should be considered failure or not. Also they'll go below that (because some of their "investments" are government bonds which they won't be allowed to unload, as it would affect the government too much).

For current or future recipients of said benefits, the answer is pretty clear : yes.

And, frankly, the government has promised these people compensation in terms of years or work, and amounts of income after those years of work. It should be illegal to make these claims. (and for the private sector, it mostly is, so frankly these laws are letting government lie on compensation letter, which is low, dishonest)

Re: Half of the US government's financial assets are student loans

#267

Post by [deleted] » Sat, Jan 13, 2018, 7:18 AM UTC

ultraluminous wrote: post #251

lotsofpulp wrote: post #226

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't see why financial organizations need a middle ground. It doesn't seem like our society (USA) wants to give individuals a middle ground so that they're not completely hosed, why should the rich have one?

Though I agree with you that bankers should face many many more personal repercussions to engaging in improper risk management, but stabilizing banks is not about bailing the rich. The financial system holds not only main street's deposits, but also future paychecks, loan re-payments, home mortgages and, well, basically anything to do with money. When that system stops working the world stops turning, so to speak. On…

[deleted]

Re: Half of the US government's financial assets are student loans

#268

Post by wahern » Sat, Jan 13, 2018, 7:55 AM UTC

tunesmith wrote: post #218

mobilefriendly wrote: post #217

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Since 2014 Social Security has run out of money, and the shortfall is being financed by general federal borrowing. It just isn't in the headlines these days.

Another right wing frame... Social Security was in surplus for several years, and it will be several more years before the surplus is exhausted, if ever. The right wing frame is that the surplus "doesn't exist" or is full of "IOUs" or something. It's hogwash. Here's how it really works. When Social Security is in surplus, more money comes in from payroll taxes than is paid out in benefits. Payroll taxes come from peo…

I think you're missing a step. The surpluses are invested in Treasury securities, which is where the "IOUs" tripe comes from. Figures for the national debt invariably _include_ these securities, which is worthwhile to point out lest people think the liability is somehow hidden with shell games.

I think the latest figures for the national debt are just shy of $14 trillion, of which about $3 trillion is owed to the Social Security trust funds.

Re: Half of the US government's financial assets are student loans

#269

Post by godelski » Sat, Jan 13, 2018, 9:42 AM UTC

outworlder wrote: post #222

godelski wrote: post #190

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's a lot. But to sum up a few: - The overwhelming political nature of everything here. It is "free-market is the solution to everything or you're a socialist" mentality. The Moore race is a good example of this. The only thing worse than a Dem is a pedo. I'm moderate right, for reference. (maybe some of this is just the political climate of the times) - Bible belt and churches around every corner. Religion is mu…

You feel like a foreigner in your own country, speaking the same language, growing up with the same TV programs as everyone else. Now imagine how would it be if you moved to another country entirely. If the former is cultural shock, the latter is a multi-story Tesla Coil to the face :)

That's kind of my point. Though if we're being honest, different regions in America have vastly different cultures.

Re: Half of the US government's financial assets are student loans

#270

Post by ThrustVectoring » Sat, Jan 13, 2018, 12:10 PM UTC

MollyR wrote: post #37

US government backed student loans were a huge mistake. We needed something like rent control enforced on public universities, for government backed loans. But we didn't. So it created a situation that caused an enormous amount of millennials to be taken advantage of by universities and colleges. Those universities and colleges pumped full of government loan cash became increasingly predatory. They increased their ad…

College degrees are largely positional goods. A good chunk of the value of a college degree is that you get hired preferentially over an otherwise equally qualified candidate without a degree, or with a less prestigious degree.

The US higher education system is an excellent example as to what happens when you subsidize positional goods. Daycare workers and firefighters are starting to be a college-degree-required position. They're not there yet, fortunately, but it's absolutely ridiculous.

The solution has three parts:

1. Expand the examination system used in places like actuarial work and civil service to encompass a broader range of skills.

2. Declare a student loan debt jubilee.

3. Add a "don't ask, don't tell" policy for college degrees, or otherwise shut down the ability for college degrees to matter in resumes. Banning colleges and other organizations from confirming whether or not a student actually got a degree is a good start.