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Dogecoin's inventor looks to the past for insight into the future

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Re: Dogecoin's inventor looks to the past for insight into the future

#91

Post by stale2002 »

jedberg wrote: post #49
throwaway30yo wrote: post #25

DOGE is a pretty good currency to use for moving money between exchanges. That is why its used. If BTC had low/no transaction fees and was fast, people would have less incentive to use DOGE. Overvalued? Its possible but I think the entire crypto market is actually insanely undervalued. I was talking to my financial advisor the other day and he said pretty much 100% of people now are asking him about crypto and are co…

If you're invested I wish you the best. But here is why I think all cryptocurrency is worthless: It is backed by nothing. The USD is backed by the courts of the USA, which in turned are backed by people with guns (law enforcement and the military). The YEN is backed by guns. The GPB is backed by guns. What is BTC backed by? If someone literally steals your BTC, what recourse do you have? There is no court to go to, n…

What if someone comes to your house and steals your gold bars in a vault?

That's the same thing as stealing your Bitcoin.

If my private keys are in cold storage in a vault, it isnt any easier to steal that, than if my Bitcoin was instead gold bars.

Re: Dogecoin's inventor looks to the past for insight into the future

#92

Post by whatok »

trevelyan wrote: post #81
meri_dian wrote: post #2

>"To deliver a peer-to-peer alternative to cash that, through decentralization, did away with the need for trust in financial institutions, which the 2008 crisis showed to be unscrupulous, and often corrupt." The sort of activity which led to the financial crisis would not be mitigated by the establishment of a decentralized currency. Decentralization would not do away with the need for financial institutions (or the…

> The sort of activity which led to the financial crisis would not be mitigated by the establishment of a decentralized currency. It actually would deal with the issue that led to the GFC. Remember --- the problem wasn't that there were fraudulent mortgages -- it is that these mortgages were packaged and repackaged in ways that deliberately obscured the risk involved so that people were buying stuff that had no under…

Real-time (compared to equities) pricing as you know it does not exist in mortgages and would not be enabled by what you're describing. Transparency in something like this also does not help in the case of massive gaps downward in price which happened with a lot of these instruments and in fact would probably accelerate sell-offs. Transparency of the underlying was not the issue. Anyone investing in this stuff could have figured it out if they wanted to.

Re: Dogecoin's inventor looks to the past for insight into the future

#93

Post by jedberg »

stale2002 wrote: post #91
jedberg wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you're invested I wish you the best. But here is why I think all cryptocurrency is worthless: It is backed by nothing. The USD is backed by the courts of the USA, which in turned are backed by people with guns (law enforcement and the military). The YEN is backed by guns. The GPB is backed by guns. What is BTC backed by? If someone literally steals your BTC, what recourse do you have? There is no court to go to, n…

What if someone comes to your house and steals your gold bars in a vault? That's the same thing as stealing your Bitcoin. If my private keys are in cold storage in a vault, it isnt any easier to steal that, than if my Bitcoin was instead gold bars.

Gold bars in a vault are at least something of value, and not just bits on a drive. The physical gold can be used to make things. What can you do with the bits on a drive?

Re: Dogecoin's inventor looks to the past for insight into the future

#94

Post by xorcist »

jedberg wrote: post #49
throwaway30yo wrote: post #25

DOGE is a pretty good currency to use for moving money between exchanges. That is why its used. If BTC had low/no transaction fees and was fast, people would have less incentive to use DOGE. Overvalued? Its possible but I think the entire crypto market is actually insanely undervalued. I was talking to my financial advisor the other day and he said pretty much 100% of people now are asking him about crypto and are co…

If you're invested I wish you the best. But here is why I think all cryptocurrency is worthless: It is backed by nothing. The USD is backed by the courts of the USA, which in turned are backed by people with guns (law enforcement and the military). The YEN is backed by guns. The GPB is backed by guns. What is BTC backed by? If someone literally steals your BTC, what recourse do you have? There is no court to go to, n…

What are you talking about? If someone steals your gold, your recourse is the police force upholding civil law. The situation with Bitcoin would be identical.

When people speak about military backing of currency value, they do not imply that you can expect Her Majesty's Royal Navy to come out in full force should your British Pounds get stolen.

Of all the criticisms about Bitcoin, that was an unusual one. There are no special courts for stolen cars, cattle or currency. There's just the regular ones.

Re: Dogecoin's inventor looks to the past for insight into the future

#95

Post by jedberg »

andrewla wrote: post #85
jedberg wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you're invested I wish you the best. But here is why I think all cryptocurrency is worthless: It is backed by nothing. The USD is backed by the courts of the USA, which in turned are backed by people with guns (law enforcement and the military). The YEN is backed by guns. The GPB is backed by guns. What is BTC backed by? If someone literally steals your BTC, what recourse do you have? There is no court to go to, n…

If someone literally steals your BTC, you have the same recourse as if someone stole your golf clubs. The mechanism of law enforcement and the justice system will try to get your BTC or golf clubs back, and this has happened numerous times already. If they take my golf clubs or BTC or USD through fraud then the rules are slightly different, but all of them will be treated the same way by the justice system. Now it is…

> All of this is just the justice system, though.

Only if you're in the USA. USD is subject to the US legal system regardless of where the transaction takes place.

Re: Dogecoin's inventor looks to the past for insight into the future

#96

Post by sharemywin »

roymurdock wrote: post #60

Crypto allows people to do 2 very important and useful things: 1) Move money around government currency controls (for a small fee) 2) Invest and speculate on potentially valuable assets. Sure you can't live in, eat, or drive a Bitcoin, but finance/trading is all about creating and betting on abstractions, and virtual currencies are the ultimate abstraction. Crypto is especially attractive given the current easy money…

wonder where we are in the hype cycle:

https://www.gartner.com/technology/research/methodologies/hy...

Re: Dogecoin's inventor looks to the past for insight into the future

#97

Post by aardvark291 »

reefoctopus wrote: post #87
aardvark291 wrote: post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> As long as people bought bitcoin and ethereum, they probably will end up positive. This isn't possible - the bitcoin market is literally a zero-sum game. One person's gain can only come from another's loss.

Pretend alice bought bitcoin for $10. Alice sells to bob when it reaches $1,000. The price is currently $13,500. Alice gained $990. Who lost $990?

Bob is out $1000 until he finds a "greater fool".

The zero-sum aspect occurs if at some point all participants cash out.

Re: Dogecoin's inventor looks to the past for insight into the future

#98

Post by usrusr »

throwaway30yo wrote: post #25

DOGE is a pretty good currency to use for moving money between exchanges. That is why its used. If BTC had low/no transaction fees and was fast, people would have less incentive to use DOGE. Overvalued? Its possible but I think the entire crypto market is actually insanely undervalued. I was talking to my financial advisor the other day and he said pretty much 100% of people now are asking him about crypto and are co…

> I was talking to my financial advisor the other day and he said pretty much 100% of people now are asking him about crypto and are considering putting money in.

100% of those are not interested in cryptocurrency at all, they are interested in anything that goes from bottom left to top right if charted against their local denomination. They don't want crypto, they want fiat and see crypto merely as a possible means to that end. This translates precisely to "Crypto is only backed by greed", which is exactly what people mean when they call it overvalued.

(I call 100% and not 99%, because those few genuinely interested in crypto would not bother asking their financial advisor)

Re: Dogecoin's inventor looks to the past for insight into the future

#99

Post by [deleted] »

aardvark291 wrote: post #71
mkirklions wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah because most people are putting fun money into the alt-coins. As long as people bought bitcoin and ethereum, they probably will end up positive. The people that are riding on 3 month old coins like IOTA or TRON will lose. Those risking everything on the future of Ripple or BCH or 1-2 specific coins will lose. Those that diversify impartially will come out major winners.

> As long as people bought bitcoin and ethereum, they probably will end up positive. This isn't possible - the bitcoin market is literally a zero-sum game. One person's gain can only come from another's loss.

[deleted]

Re: Dogecoin's inventor looks to the past for insight into the future

#100

Post by JumpCrisscross »

saosebastiao wrote: post #69
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Money supply is not quoted in terms of trade, it exists purely outside of market behavior FX traders absolutely look at money supply, amongst other things, re-priced into hard currency when considering e.g. foreign-currency debt burdens; local rates, inflation and borrowing conditions; and the monetary policy relative to the internal and export-oriented economy. It's a specialist metric, though.

The money supply isn't the currency's value. Of course it is a factor in what traders are willing to pay to acquire it...but weather can be as well. Do you conflate the trade balance with the value of a currency too? Market cap is money supply * last trade price. It mathematically can't be analog to money supply, any more than density can be analog to mass.

As in take the outstanding money supply and convert it, at prevailing rates, to U.S. dollars and look at that statistic over time. It’s a crappy metric, but it is useful in limited situations, e.g. when pricing rate or FX swaps.

Both market cap and money supply are metrics that sum across the set. In America we can just count dollars, because our unit of account is our currency. For countries with FX sensitivities, however, that sum is less meaningful in domestic currency than as a hard currency value.

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