Earlier quoted context omitted.
Farage was never officially part of any the UK power structure, except the media.
He's an MEP. You can argue about their powers out his effectiveness, but he's an elected representative which I'd have thought puts him within the UK power structure.
Does Brexit end not with a bang but a whimper?
111–120 of 235 posts
Re: Does Brexit end not with a bang but a whimper?
#112It's hard to imagine how this whole situation could have been fucked-up to a greater extent. I'm a solid supporter of remaining in the EU, but I'm open-minded to the idea that an orderly Brexit could have been planned and executed, with the public being aware of the various trade-offs. A single market on one hand, balanced against free movement and regulatory harmonisation on the other.
But that discussion didn't happen. There was literally no coherent concept in the public sphere about what the goals of Brexit where, or what the desired end state was – and there still isn't. Obviously to some extent because the outcome was unexpected, but that doesn't excuse the ongoing incompetence and failure to be realistic on the behalf of the UK government. Various government ministers continue to be frankly fucking deluded about what they are trying to achieve – in a way that I have to assume that they are deliberately lying. There is still no coherent government policy on what Brexit actually is, and no corresponding public idea of that either.
This is in stark contrast to the Scottish independence referendum in 2014 – though I was on the 'yes' side then. I have a book published by the Scottish government sitting on my bookshelf, which outlines in decent detail the plans and desired outcomes if independence was chosen. Not that all of that would come to pass, or would even be possible, but even to have a stated government plan is light-years ahead of what is happening at the UK level. It's almost criminally irresponsible.
Worse, there is no obvious out – either a reversal of this policy, or any sign of a government that can realistically set out what it wants to achieve. The main opposition party is weak and equally committed to Brexit, and with the leader of the opposition being the only realistic figure around which support could coalesce, there is limited room for manoeuvre.
Now we see the fallout – not in the short term, but taking a longer view. I've had people explicitly tell my startup that they are no longer funding in the UK because they "have no idea what's going to happen". It's become much harder to hire EU-based workers, because of course they have no idea what their position will be in a couple of years. I have watched a number of talented friends and contacts move away from the UK, because they can't really be bothered with this nonsense. In the long-term, this cack-handed mismanagement is going to be another bullet point in the long and slow decline of the UK. It's not like the world is going to end – it's just that everything is going to be a bit shittier.
I know that's a bit of a rant, but it's utterly frustrating to deal with from inside the UK when so many are currently banging on about how good it's great to be to have a different fucking colour of passport.
Re: Does Brexit end not with a bang but a whimper?
#113Earlier quoted context omitted.
Sure, but Germany will have less control over the UK. From what I can tell and have read Germany has huge influence on pretty much every country besides Poland and--perhaps--Hungary (I live in Poland, not sure about Hungary actually). Poland definitely thinks about its own citizens _first_, and _then_ at what's good for the EU, which is after all what politicians have been elected to do. I'm Italian and Italy is a me…
> Poland and Hungary (luckily I live in Poland), which seem to me as the only countries that look after their own citizens _first_ and _then_ at what's good for the EU As someone who lives in a country where loads of Hungarians move to because they don't like their government I'm not sure I can agree. From what I can see here Hungary has a massive brain drain and unless you live in Budapest the state of infrastructur…
Re: Does Brexit end not with a bang but a whimper?
#114Earlier quoted context omitted.
The UK has a population of 65M. Thus there is a big market for all kinds of exports. As far as cards go this is a big one, but its the only one I can identify.
Not just good, but skills. Remember there is a work agreement for EU nations. Right now, essential skilled human resources can easily be grabbed from both sides of the channel, with little to no immigration paperwork.
Re: Does Brexit end not with a bang but a whimper?
#115Earlier quoted context omitted.
Sure. Based on..?
Actually following the news of the Polish constitutional crisis? (Translated into American: imagine if Trump decided to simply fire and replace the Democrat-appointed members of SCOTUS)
Jokes aside, from that to saying that it will become a dictatorship... I just don't see it, sorry.
Re: Does Brexit end not with a bang but a whimper?
#116A real shame that Oxford decided to name their department after an oligarch who expropriated huge wealth out of Russia [1]. Sad to admit I consider any position associated with the Blavatnik name tainted. [1] https://www.theguardian.com/education/2015/nov/03/oxford-uni...
Could you please explain how this relates to Brexit? (genuinely curious).
Re: Does Brexit end not with a bang but a whimper?
#117Earlier quoted context omitted.
Bad. If anything because they'll have to rewrite thousands of laws and procedures that came from the EU times, and deal with the caos that that will cause. That only will cost so much money (and pain) that it would justify staying in the EU. Then, of course there are companies that have left and that will leave, highly-skilled workflow for London that will be harder to get, etc. They have to negotiate with the EU so…
If anything because they'll have to rewrite thousands of laws and procedures that came from the EU times, and deal with the caos that that will cause. I've never understood this argument. Surely all you have to do is write a law that says: in the absence of British law, default to EU legislation. That's the essence of the great repeal bill, is it not? They have to negotiate with the EU so that they're not completely…
"in the absence of British law, default to EU legislation" would by no means be any kind of clarity, and I would anticipate such a thing would give years and even decades of discussion and argument in the various legal forums and courts to interpret that in all the various permutations and possibilities.
Re: Does Brexit end not with a bang but a whimper?
#118Earlier quoted context omitted.
The Good Friday Agreement basically makes the UK (or Ireland) the single worst country to attempt to leave the EU. The biggest problem with the December declaration being that it's hard to trust the government to make good on it. (The consequences for being seen to be negotiating in bad faith are too awful to contemplate, but the government seems to be post-rational a lot of the time.)
Within a week Davis said something to the effect of, "this deal is not really legally binding".
But what's important is that all the UK cabinet got behind it, including Johnson. It's a "get out of jail" card for the whole mess. It solves loads of problems for everybody.
The only person actually grumbling was Farage, which can only be a good thing.
Re: Does Brexit end not with a bang but a whimper?
#119As a EU resident who is a partner in several UK based businesses, the uncertainty over what's coming next is frightening. When I approached different colleagues, friends & family in the UK, they all had different views on what should happen. To an outsider, it looks like opinions have been polarised. If you are managing a business that has ties to the UK there are very many unknowns right now. It's a lot easier to pl…
You're right about the polarisation. The same forces in play in America are in play in Britain right now. It's no accident that Trump described himself as "Mr Brexit". Authoritarian voters support Brexit, liberal ones don't. The major parties split right/left not authoritarian/liberal and are terrified of losing their voting base. I know a die hard leaver, she's one of the few people I'd trust my children with. She's…
I don't think that's an accurate analysis. As far as I can tell the vote was driven mainly by economic distress, media (which papers you read) and community (a lot of people just voted the same way their friends or family did).
>The London Tech scene (which skews left/liberal) seems to be hemorrhaging talented people to Berlin and other places.
I know a lot of people in the London tech scene and I only know two off the top of my head who have gone to Europe, and I don't think Brexit was a major reason for either of them.
I also haven't seen much of a significant rise in rates. If all the valuable talent is gone surely that means I'm going to be worth more?
>Meanwhile, inflation is so bad the supermarkets are quietly reducing the quantity in boxes
That's how inflation always works in supermarkets.
Re: Does Brexit end not with a bang but a whimper?
#120Earlier quoted context omitted.
Isn't a Canada-like solution exactly what current negotiations appear to work towards? Barnier presented a slide with options for the UK and a free trade agreement like with Canada was the only one that doesn't violate red lines set by the UK government. Such a free-trade agreement would allow most goods to flow relatively freely but doesn't have any provisions for services.
Yeah this seems like the most reasonable option. Even not having service trade isn’t a great disaster. Companies with sizeable EU revenue can just set up a European subsidiary (in Ireland, etc) to conduct business in Europe from the UK (or anywhere). (Though I accept it’ll be a pain for e.g. finance companies which the EU requires to be based within the EU,) Startups eespecially aren’t held back by these rules right…
Or anywhere ... Why would you go to the bother and expense of being in UK, puppeteering a company in the EU. You just move to the EU and save yourself the cost/hastle.