Does Brexit end not with a bang but a whimper? • Hacker News Board

Re: Does Brexit end not with a bang but a whimper?

#81

Post by tom_mellior » Thu, Jan 11, 2018, 1:14 PM UTC

kypro wrote: post #57

te_chris wrote: post #23

Now Nigel (fucking) Farage is calling for a 2nd referendum. You can't make this shit up. https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jan/11/nigel-farag...

What's your point? Or are you just reading the headline? He is saying a second referendum could show the politicians who have been pushing for a soft brexit recently that this is really what the British public want. What point are you trying to make?

> He is saying a second referendum could show the politicians who have been pushing for a soft brexit recently that this is really what the British public want.

What does the word "this" refer to in the sentence above? A yes/no referendum on Brexit will not show the politicians whether the public want a soft or a hard Brexit.

Re: Does Brexit end not with a bang but a whimper?

#82

Post by xienze » Thu, Jan 11, 2018, 1:14 PM UTC

moomin wrote: post #58

StanAngeloff wrote: post #5

As a EU resident who is a partner in several UK based businesses, the uncertainty over what's coming next is frightening. When I approached different colleagues, friends & family in the UK, they all had different views on what should happen. To an outsider, it looks like opinions have been polarised. If you are managing a business that has ties to the UK there are very many unknowns right now. It's a lot easier to pl…

You're right about the polarisation. The same forces in play in America are in play in Britain right now. It's no accident that Trump described himself as "Mr Brexit". Authoritarian voters support Brexit, liberal ones don't. The major parties split right/left not authoritarian/liberal and are terrified of losing their voting base. I know a die hard leaver, she's one of the few people I'd trust my children with. She's…

> It's no accident that Trump described himself as "Mr Brexit".

No he didn’t. That’s how he introduced Nigel Farage at a rally.

Re: Does Brexit end not with a bang but a whimper?

#83

Post by toyg » Thu, Jan 11, 2018, 1:15 PM UTC

rusk wrote: post #53

I kind of feel the whimper came before Christmas, in the talks discussing Northern Ireland and the status of the border there between the UK and Europe. I can't remember the details exactly but the Good Friday Agreement [0] provided a constitutional footing whereby the UK effectively gave an undertaking to abide by the rules of the EU trade area, while not being a member of the EU trade area . This to prevent the ere…

> and the EU of course must consult her in setting these.

What? No. The Eu didn't commit to a single thing in that agreement, beyond graciously accepting for the UK to pay its bills and letting it trade as long as they follow EU rules.

The UK will end up like Norway: paying the price for selling into the EU, without any say in EU rules. Which is exactly what was predicted at the start, and makes the Uk a de-facto vassal state.

Brexit is so great.

Re: Does Brexit end not with a bang but a whimper?

#84

Post by arethuza » Thu, Jan 11, 2018, 1:15 PM UTC

te_chris wrote: post #23

Now Nigel (fucking) Farage is calling for a 2nd referendum. You can't make this shit up. https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jan/11/nigel-farag...

Amusingly, before the last referendum Farage said that a 52-48 result would be "unfinished business" and would require another vote...

Of course, he meant a 52-48 result the other way.

Re: Does Brexit end not with a bang but a whimper?

#85

Post by mkohlmyr » Thu, Jan 11, 2018, 1:15 PM UTC

nkkollaw wrote: post #18

forinti wrote: post #9

I can't decide if Brexit is good or bad for the UK. On the one hand, there's the common market and freedom of movement. On the other there's Germany's dominance and lots of fragile banks. What would be worse, losing access to the free market or being around if the banks fail? Or would being outside the market make a difference if Deutsche Bank failed?

Bad. If anything because they'll have to rewrite thousands of laws and procedures that came from the EU times, and deal with the caos that that will cause. That only will cost so much money (and pain) that it would justify staying in the EU. Then, of course there are companies that have left and that will leave, highly-skilled workflow for London that will be harder to get, etc. They have to negotiate with the EU so…

Your first argument boils down to "it's difficult to leave so why bother". That's an objectively terrible reason to stay, no matter your political affiliation or feelings about the EU.

As far as the "old people did this to us" meme. The 75% of young people who purportedly are so strongly against brexit probably should have bothered to vote if they wanted that outcome.

Additionally, there are other factors than just age that correspond to voting outcome. E.g. degree education, having a passport, income level.

And if we afford those people a bit of empathy rather than casting them all as gullible fools or bad people, we might consider that they actually stand to benefit far less (or have plausible reasons to feel this way) from the EU than someone (such as the average HN reader) who has the privilege to e.g. be choosy about employment opportunities, be able to afford educating themselves, be able to afford to travel at will.

In any case there are many reasons to feel ambivalent about the EU. I do, and I've taken every opportunity that membership has afforded me. I still don't like how (or by whom) it is run or how expansive its powers have become over time.

Re: Does Brexit end not with a bang but a whimper?

#86

Post by hacker_9 » Thu, Jan 11, 2018, 1:15 PM UTC

nkkollaw wrote: post #18

forinti wrote: post #9

I can't decide if Brexit is good or bad for the UK. On the one hand, there's the common market and freedom of movement. On the other there's Germany's dominance and lots of fragile banks. What would be worse, losing access to the free market or being around if the banks fail? Or would being outside the market make a difference if Deutsche Bank failed?

Bad. If anything because they'll have to rewrite thousands of laws and procedures that came from the EU times, and deal with the caos that that will cause. That only will cost so much money (and pain) that it would justify staying in the EU. Then, of course there are companies that have left and that will leave, highly-skilled workflow for London that will be harder to get, etc. They have to negotiate with the EU so…

Most of what you wrote is mis-information, for example it is written in the Repeal Bill [1] that all existing EU legislation will be copied across into domestic UK law to ensure a smooth transition on the day after Brexit.

Trade wise, there will be bumps, but it is mutually beneficial to both us and the EU to keep trading as much as possible the same as it is now. The only benefactors from making trading more difficult are the EU politicians who want to 'make an example of the UK' (Michel Barnier words).

Also these 'old people' were there when the UK voted to join the EU in 1975. So if they want out, then maybe they are seeing something you are not.

[1] https://services.parliament.uk/bills/2017-19/europeanunionwi...

Re: Does Brexit end not with a bang but a whimper?

#87

Post by nkkollaw » Thu, Jan 11, 2018, 1:15 PM UTC

the_mitsuhiko wrote: post #75

nkkollaw wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sure, but Germany will have less control over the UK. From what I can tell and have read Germany has huge influence on pretty much every country besides Poland and--perhaps--Hungary (I live in Poland, not sure about Hungary actually). Poland definitely thinks about its own citizens _first_, and _then_ at what's good for the EU, which is after all what politicians have been elected to do. I'm Italian and Italy is a me…

> Poland and Hungary (luckily I live in Poland), which seem to me as the only countries that look after their own citizens _first_ and _then_ at what's good for the EU As someone who lives in a country where loads of Hungarians move to because they don't like their government I'm not sure I can agree. From what I can see here Hungary has a massive brain drain and unless you live in Budapest the state of infrastructur…

Yes, I don't know anything about Hungary, I can only talk about Poland because I live there.

I've updated my comment so that it's clearer that I don't know what I'm talking about when mentioning Hungary :-)

Re: Does Brexit end not with a bang but a whimper?

#88

Post by tom_mellior » Thu, Jan 11, 2018, 1:16 PM UTC

> the EU is calling the shots in these negotiations

Yes.

> a deal that kept the UK in the Customs Union and Single Market for goods, but not for services.

The EU (which is calling the shots) has repeatedly said that the Four Freedoms are inseparable. So such a deal seems unlikely.

Re: Does Brexit end not with a bang but a whimper?

#89

Post by Havoc » Thu, Jan 11, 2018, 1:16 PM UTC

ben_w wrote: post #69

Havoc wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ideal. That dodgy first vote is no good basis to make such changes on. Think that's going to bite Nigel in a arse though.

> Think that's going to bite Nige Disagree. He said before the referendum that 48%-52% would be unfinished business, but didn’t seem to lose credibility amongst his supporters from it. Something may eventually tarnish his Teflon, but he’d probably be able to turn defeat in a second referendum into a rallying cry for a literal attempted revolution. (I place odds of UK civil war in the next 6 years at about 10%).

Thing is everyone is starting to recognise the whole brexit story is a rather miserable one that has little shot at a happy end.

So I'd imagine that a second vote would end in favour of remain by a more conclusive margin than the first.

Re: Does Brexit end not with a bang but a whimper?

#90

Post by pjc50 » Thu, Jan 11, 2018, 1:17 PM UTC

ben_w wrote: post #69

Havoc wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ideal. That dodgy first vote is no good basis to make such changes on. Think that's going to bite Nigel in a arse though.

> Think that's going to bite Nige Disagree. He said before the referendum that 48%-52% would be unfinished business, but didn’t seem to lose credibility amongst his supporters from it. Something may eventually tarnish his Teflon, but he’d probably be able to turn defeat in a second referendum into a rallying cry for a literal attempted revolution. (I place odds of UK civil war in the next 6 years at about 10%).

> I place odds of UK civil war in the next 6 years at about 10%

Hmm. Does that include resumption of armed conflict in NI? That's a possibility but there's no real tradition of this in England. I'm somewhat surprised there haven't been anti-Brexit riots but I can only assume that MI5 is pro-Brexit and actively disrupting their organisation. I can't see how we'd actually get to armed conflict unless the government starts it by mistake.