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Does Brexit end not with a bang but a whimper?

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Re: Does Brexit end not with a bang but a whimper?

#71

Post by moomin »

alimw wrote: post #19
Nursie wrote: post #2

This seems speculative and it effectively posits a worst-of-all-worlds situation resulting - one if which the UK is half inside the single market. Half inside such that it allows the flow of goods (the UK is a net importer) but not services (which we net export). This would be untenable, worse than a no-deal situation. And the basis of this speculation is that the EU is holding all the cards. I'm really not convinced…

> The article reads a little bit like a remain fantasy - Brexit will be a disaster and then people must come around to my way of thinking! The article makes its prediction based on higher rates of death in old people.

Which, given the state of the NHS, means the Conservative party are literally eroding their own base.

Re: Does Brexit end not with a bang but a whimper?

#72

Post by pjc50 »

nkkollaw wrote: post #50
Tomte wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, they are autocratic regimes, well on their way to full dictatorship within a few generations of "presidents".

Sure. Based on..?

Actually following the news of the Polish constitutional crisis?

(Translated into American: imagine if Trump decided to simply fire and replace the Democrat-appointed members of SCOTUS)

Re: Does Brexit end not with a bang but a whimper?

#73

Post by lloeki »

dhoulb wrote: post #14
dx034 wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Isn't a Canada-like solution exactly what current negotiations appear to work towards? Barnier presented a slide with options for the UK and a free trade agreement like with Canada was the only one that doesn't violate red lines set by the UK government. Such a free-trade agreement would allow most goods to flow relatively freely but doesn't have any provisions for services.

Yeah this seems like the most reasonable option. Even not having service trade isn’t a great disaster. Companies with sizeable EU revenue can just set up a European subsidiary (in Ireland, etc) to conduct business in Europe from the UK (or anywhere). (Though I accept it’ll be a pain for e.g. finance companies which the EU requires to be based within the EU,) Startups eespecially aren’t held back by these rules right…

> Startups eespecially aren’t held back by these rules right now, they just sell everywhere in USD (and at some point when they’re big enough create an EU subsidiary).

It's not all about the money, e.g regulations like DPD and soon GDPR can affect this. Legal departments of our customers won't touch anything non-EU based with a 100 mile pole.

Re: Does Brexit end not with a bang but a whimper?

#74

Post by cmdkeen »

nkkollaw wrote: post #18
forinti wrote: post #9

I can't decide if Brexit is good or bad for the UK. On the one hand, there's the common market and freedom of movement. On the other there's Germany's dominance and lots of fragile banks. What would be worse, losing access to the free market or being around if the banks fail? Or would being outside the market make a difference if Deutsche Bank failed?

Bad. If anything because they'll have to rewrite thousands of laws and procedures that came from the EU times, and deal with the caos that that will cause. That only will cost so much money (and pain) that it would justify staying in the EU. Then, of course there are companies that have left and that will leave, highly-skilled workflow for London that will be harder to get, etc. They have to negotiate with the EU so…

While I appreciate Brexit hasn't happened yet there's little to no evidence yet of any exodus of highly skilled workforces. London remains an incredibly attractive destination for inflows of both investment, workers and tourists. Will some companies leave, no doubt, however the high profile mass departure of European HQs and banks has yet to bear out.

To the OP, and going back to the article, a major issue is that of services, our major export. The EU does not have a single market in services, and has shown little interest in progressing it. It isn't so much Deutsche Bank as the mittelstand that demonstrates that the EU as a whole favours particular economic systems. Italy is a prime example of a sclerotic services sector that their own government has failed to reform, despite the EU being willing and able to influence the appointment of Mario Monti it isn't willing to impose a free market in service in the same way it has for goods - and stand up to blatant protectionism.

Re: Does Brexit end not with a bang but a whimper?

#75

Post by the_mitsuhiko »

nkkollaw wrote: post #26
the_mitsuhiko wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not sure how being outside the EU would help the UK against "Germany's dominance" Surely out of the EU means by definition that the UK has less control over Germany?

Sure, but Germany will have less control over the UK. From what I can tell and have read Germany has huge influence on pretty much every country besides Poland and--perhaps--Hungary (I live in Poland, not sure about Hungary actually). Poland definitely thinks about its own citizens _first_, and _then_ at what's good for the EU, which is after all what politicians have been elected to do. I'm Italian and Italy is a me…

> Poland and Hungary (luckily I live in Poland), which seem to me as the only countries that look after their own citizens _first_ and _then_ at what's good for the EU

As someone who lives in a country where loads of Hungarians move to because they don't like their government I'm not sure I can agree. From what I can see here Hungary has a massive brain drain and unless you live in Budapest the state of infrastructure and public services is less than stellar. Hungarians consistently poll as one of the most unhappy countries in the EU with trust to their own government.

Re: Does Brexit end not with a bang but a whimper?

#76

Post by pjc50 »

blibble wrote: post #47
maze-le wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The UK has a population of 65M. Thus there is a big market for all kinds of exports. As far as cards go this is a big one, but its the only one I can identify.

and by 2050 will be the largest in Europe, whereas Germany's is predicted to fall by about 10%

Which propaganda outfit did you get that from, Zerohedge?

Re: Does Brexit end not with a bang but a whimper?

#77

Post by raverbashing »

kypro wrote: post #57
te_chris wrote: post #23

Now Nigel (fucking) Farage is calling for a 2nd referendum. You can't make this shit up. https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jan/11/nigel-farag...

What's your point? Or are you just reading the headline? He is saying a second referendum could show the politicians who have been pushing for a soft brexit recently that this is really what the British public want. What point are you trying to make?

Then have a vote with multiple alternatives

Also I would favour a disclaimer on the bottom

Tick here if you're aware that X% of doctors and nurses on the NHS are from the EU and reducing their number will result in more delays and/or need to have more doctors/nurses from non-EU countries

Tick here if you're aware leaving the EU (hard Brexit) will result in longer times and possible caveats when entering other countries in the Schengen area

Tick here if you're aware leaving the EU single market will increase prices of several goods, both by the reduced value of the Pound and higher import fees.

(oh and my favourite) Tick here if you're aware leaving the EU will make it harder to move between countries, including southern European countries (like Spain) and that retirees might need a visa to move or remain there

Re: Does Brexit end not with a bang but a whimper?

#78

Post by te_chris »

kypro wrote: post #57
te_chris wrote: post #23

Now Nigel (fucking) Farage is calling for a 2nd referendum. You can't make this shit up. https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jan/11/nigel-farag...

What's your point? Or are you just reading the headline? He is saying a second referendum could show the politicians who have been pushing for a soft brexit recently that this is really what the British public want. What point are you trying to make?

That the man's a charlatan who senses that his life's work is a charade and is now trying to run away as fast as possible.

Re: Does Brexit end not with a bang but a whimper?

#79

Post by the_mitsuhiko »

blibble wrote: post #62
the_mitsuhiko wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Granted, if the EU position is sabotaged by some members (as the Polish PM was hinting towards) The biggest problem of the EU is also its biggest strength. It needs unity for this. So if Poland goes rogue nothing happens, article 50 kicks in and no deal happens. That indirectly strengthens the EU now quite a bit ironically enough.

this is incorrect: Article 50 states that the withdrawal agreement only requires a Qualified Majority, not unanimity Poland's consent is not required

> this is incorrect: Article 50 states that the withdrawal agreement only requires a Qualified Majority, not unanimity

But a trade deal with the UK does not. We just went through this with CETA.

Re: Does Brexit end not with a bang but a whimper?

#80

Post by DanBC »

cmdkeen wrote: post #74
nkkollaw wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Bad. If anything because they'll have to rewrite thousands of laws and procedures that came from the EU times, and deal with the caos that that will cause. That only will cost so much money (and pain) that it would justify staying in the EU. Then, of course there are companies that have left and that will leave, highly-skilled workflow for London that will be harder to get, etc. They have to negotiate with the EU so…

While I appreciate Brexit hasn't happened yet there's little to no evidence yet of any exodus of highly skilled workforces. London remains an incredibly attractive destination for inflows of both investment, workers and tourists. Will some companies leave, no doubt, however the high profile mass departure of European HQs and banks has yet to bear out. To the OP, and going back to the article, a major issue is that of…

> there's little to no evidence yet of any exodus of highly skilled workforces

The NHS has plenty of evidence that EU workers (doctors, nurses, allied health professionals -- all skilled staff, all hard to replace from UK recruits) are leaving, and that's despite the clear assurances given by SoS Health that EU NHS staff are guaranteed to be allowed to stay.

EDIT: the guarantee of being allowed to stay was provided rather late, so many people left before it was given, but they're still leaving.

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